Measurements of things the trading literature asserts. Mostly nulls. https://turnmarks.com/research 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z https://turnmarks.com/filters 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z

Every moving average is one of a small number of constructions. This puts twelve of them side by side with the same four numbers each — lag, noise gain, peak gain and stopband leak — all computed from the coefficients rather than from any market, so no backtest can disagree with them. The comparison EMA is matched on lag rather than on period, which is the only way the columns mean anything: two filters both called 24 routinely sit different distances behind price. Nothing wins twice.

https://turnmarks.com/filters/adaptive 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z

Adaptive indicators estimate a dominant cycle each bar and retune to it. That premise is testable without writing an indicator, and against a null of the same returns shuffled it does not hold: on 26 years of hourly bars from three majors, no spectral peak in price stands above chance, and a period measured on one window says nothing about the next. The positive control is the useful half — in absolute returns a peak stands up at 24 bars at six to twenty-nine times the band, which is the trading day. Fed a real cycle these estimators find it loudly.

https://turnmarks.com/filters/cascade 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z

Build something smooth and hopelessly late, then subtract a deeper copy of it. T3 carries a dial that runs from a plain triple cascade at 34.5 bars of lag to exactly zero — not nearly zero — and the page prints the bill at every step: noise gain, peak gain, and how far the line carries past the top of a move before it settles. Zero lag has been possible since 1998. It has never been free.

https://turnmarks.com/fibonacci 2026-08-20T00:00:00Z

A Fibonacci tool marks three depths on a pullback and says price is more likely to turn there. That is a claim about counting, so it can be checked by counting: 25,934 pullbacks across 15 markets and four timeframes, measured only on the half of each instrument's history the method never saw.

https://turnmarks.com/pullbacks 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z

Of all the pullbacks that ever got this far, what share went on to make a new extreme. 94,347 pullbacks since 1999 across 15 markets, split per instrument at the midpoint of its own history and checked on the half that was held back.