EUR/USD forecast review, 10 to 16 August 2026
The last forecast of the week
Issued 2026-08-14 17:00 UTC, upward, from a corridor between 1.15552 and 1.15637. It continues at 1.16005 and is invalidated at 1.15402.
It reached the continuation level, 1.16005, at 2026-08-17 07:00 UTC — after this week had closed.
Forecasts on this market have taken a median of 38 hours to reach one of their two levels, over the 23 that have resolved.
Session by session
16 August the day: 1.15628 to 1.15634 (+0.6 pips), range 4.9
Nothing was worth reporting from this session.
14 August the day: 1.15277 to 1.15682 (+40.5 pips), range 57.7
At the close 1.15556 to 1.15682 (+12.6 pips), range 29.8
Resolved here: the forecast issued 12 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.15602, at 11:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — -0.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (below forecast), previous -0.2%
- US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — -0.4% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.4%
- US Retail Sales MoM — -0.6% against a forecast of 0.1% (below forecast), previous 0.2%
- US Fed Venable Speech
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — 51 against a forecast of 54.5 (below forecast), previous 55.2
- US Business Inventories MoM — 0% against a forecast of 0.1% (below forecast), previous 0.4%
A downward forecast issued on 12 August at 21:00 UTC resolved at 11:00 UTC as price reached its invalidation level at 1.1560.
In US economic releases, Retail Sales MoM was published at 12:30 UTC, followed by the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading at 14:00 UTC.
A new upward forecast was issued at 17:00 UTC from the 1.1555–1.1564 zone, targeting 1.1600 with invalidation set at 1.1540. At the session close, the market rests 32.0 pips below the target and 28.0 pips above the invalidation level.
What followed: that forecast reached its continuation level of 1.16005 on 17 August at 07:00 UTC.
13 August the day: 1.15215 to 1.15272 (+5.7 pips), range 33.7
At the close 1.15357 to 1.15287 (-7.0 pips), range 21.3
Released during this session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
- US Core PPI MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.4%
- US Initial Jobless Claims — 209K against a forecast of 202K (above forecast), previous 200K
- US PPI MoM — 0% against a forecast of 0.2% (below forecast), previous -0.1%
- US Fed Barkin Speech
A downward forecast issued at 21:00 UTC on 12 August remains live, targeting 1.1506 with invalidation set at 1.1560 from an entry corridor of 1.1538 to 1.1547. At the end of the session, the price sits 23.0 pips from the continuation target and 31.0 pips from the invalidation level.
The session included US PPI MoM data at 12:30 UTC, published alongside Core PPI MoM and Initial Jobless Claims. Federal Reserve speeches by Hammack and Barkin took place at 12:15 UTC and 12:40 UTC respectively.
Before the European session 1.15224 to 1.15259 (+3.5 pips), range 11.4
A down forecast issued at 21:00 UTC on 12 August remains live. The target level sits at 1.1506, which is 20.0 pips below the window's close at 1.1526, while the invalidation level at 1.1560 sits 34.0 pips above. The forecast was issued from a zone between 1.1538 and 1.1547.
Ahead in the upcoming European session, EU Industrial Production MoM is scheduled for release at 09:00 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- EU Industrial Production MoM — forecast -0.1%, previous 0.3%
12 August the day: 1.15396 to 1.15215 (-18.1 pips), range 43.1
At the close 1.15346 to 1.15224 (-12.2 pips), range 43.1
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.77%, previous 6.81%
- US CPI s.a — 332.81, previous 332.57
- US CPI — 333.92 against a forecast of 333.99 (below forecast), previous 333.95
- US Core Inflation Rate MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.2% (in line with forecast), previous 0%
- US Inflation Rate YoY — 3.4% against a forecast of 3.4% (in line with forecast), previous 3.5%
- US Inflation Rate MoM — 0.1% against a forecast of 0.1% (in line with forecast), previous -0.4%
- US Core Inflation Rate YoY — 2.5% against a forecast of 2.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.6%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -0.968M against a forecast of -1.2M (above forecast), previous -1.643M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 17.422M against a forecast of -1.4M (above forecast), previous 2.479M
- US Monthly Budget Statement — -432B against a forecast of -346B (below forecast), previous -120B
A downward forecast issued on 10 August at 16:00 UTC reached its continuation target of 1.1531 at 16:00 UTC. The trade resolved after 48 bars, having been issued from a corridor between 1.1561 and 1.1568.
Several major US economic releases landed at 12:30 UTC during the session, including Core Inflation Rate MoM, Core Inflation Rate YoY, Inflation Rate MoM, and Inflation Rate YoY.
11 August the day: 1.15406 to 1.15400 (-0.6 pips), range 18.5
At the close 1.15363 to 1.15428 (+6.5 pips), range 14.6
Released during this session:
- US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 8.25K, previous 11K
- US Existing Home Sales — 4.06M against a forecast of 4.05M (above forecast), previous 4.13M
- US Existing Home Sales MoM — -1.7%, previous -1.4%
A downward forecast issued from 1.1561–1.1568 remains active. The session close leaves price 12.0 pips above the 1.1531 continuation target and 38.0 pips away from the 1.1581 invalidation level.
In scheduled economic events, US Existing Home Sales landed at 14:00 UTC alongside Existing Home Sales MoM, following US ADP Employment Change Weekly at 12:15 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast -0.5M, previous 2.69M
10 August the day: 1.15600 to 1.15403 (-19.7 pips), range 29.7
At the close 1.15551 to 1.15414 (-13.7 pips), range 16.4
Released during this session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
A downward forecast was issued at 16:00 UTC from a entry zone between 1.1561 and 1.1568, targeting 1.1531 with invalidation at 1.1581. At the end of the window, the price sat 10.0 pips short of the target and 40.0 pips from the invalidation level.
During the session, Fed official Hammack spoke at 19:00 UTC.
What followed: that forecast reached its continuation level of 1.15313 on 11 August at 07:00 UTC.
How the week ended
How the week ended
| Forecasts that ended this week | 2 |
|---|---|
| Reached the continuation level | 1 |
| Ended against the call | 1 |
| Issued this week | 3 |
| Still standing on Sunday | 1 |
| Week open to close | 1.15600 to 1.15634 (+3.4 pips) |
| Week range | 1.15117 to 1.15854 (73.7 pips) |
Over the whole record on Euro / US dollar, the continuation level came first in 69% of 440 forecasts. This week is 2 decisions, not a sample.
The week
During the week of 10 to 16 August 2026, 2 forecasts settled for EUR/USD. Of these, 1 reached its continuation level and 1 reached its invalidation level. A total of 3 forecasts were issued over the course of the week, leaving 1 still open at the end of it. Across a historical sample of 2974 forecasts for this market, the continuation level was reached first 67% of the time.
EUR/USD opened at 1.1560 and closed at 1.1563, representing a change of 3.0 pips. The market recorded a high of 1.1585 and a low of 1.1512, resulting in a overall range of 73.0 pips. The week's economic calendar featured US data releases including Existing Home Sales, Inflation Rate MoM, Inflation Rate YoY, Core Inflation Rate MoM, Core Inflation Rate YoY, PPI MoM, Retail Sales MoM, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel.
The latest automated forecast issued during the week indicates an upward trend, setting a zone between 1.1555 and 1.1564. This forecast projects a continuation target at 1.1600 and an invalidation target at 1.1540.
Every forecast that ended this week
| Issued | Direction | Corridor | Continuation | Invalidation | Reached | Ended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 21:00 | down | 1.15381 - 1.15467 | 1.15062 | 1.15602 | invalidation | 2026-08-14 11:00 |
| 2026-08-10 16:00 | down | 1.15605 - 1.15685 | 1.15313 | 1.15809 | continuation | 2026-08-11 07:00 |
On the calendar this week
- 10 August, 19:00 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 11 August, 12:15 UTC - US ADP Employment Change Weekly
- 11 August, 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales
- 11 August, 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales MoM
- 11 August, 20:30 UTC - US API Crude Oil Stock Change
- 12 August, 11:00 UTC - US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 12 August, 12:30 UTC - US CPI s.a
- 12 August, 12:30 UTC - US CPI
- 12 August, 12:30 UTC - US Core Inflation Rate MoM
- 12 August, 12:30 UTC - US Inflation Rate YoY
- 12 August, 12:30 UTC - US Inflation Rate MoM
- 12 August, 12:30 UTC - US Core Inflation Rate YoY
- 12 August, 14:30 UTC - US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
- 12 August, 14:30 UTC - US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- 12 August, 18:00 UTC - US Monthly Budget Statement
- 13 August, 09:00 UTC - EU Industrial Production MoM
- 13 August, 12:15 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 13 August, 12:30 UTC - US Core PPI MoM
- 13 August, 12:30 UTC - US Initial Jobless Claims
- 13 August, 12:30 UTC - US PPI MoM
- 13 August, 12:40 UTC - US Fed Barkin Speech
- 14 August, 09:00 UTC - EU Employment Change QoQ Prel
- 14 August, 09:00 UTC - EU Employment Change YoY Prel
- 14 August, 09:00 UTC - EU Balance of Trade
- 14 August, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
- 14 August, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales Control Group MoM
- 14 August, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales MoM
- 14 August, 13:00 UTC - US Fed Venable Speech
- 14 August, 14:00 UTC - US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel
- 14 August, 14:00 UTC - US Business Inventories MoM