EUR/USD forecast
The forecast standing on EUR/USD now
The channel stopped falling, price closed clear of the trailing band, and from here the rule expects a pull-back into the bifurcation zone and then one of two levels. It gives no date and no time.
Of every forecast this rule has made on EUR/USD and that has since resolved, price came back into the zone first in 70% of them. In the other 30% it reached the new extreme without pulling back into the zone at all.
Rebuilt before each session — 23:00, 06:00 and 12:00 UTC.
This week so far, 24 to 30 August 2026
27 August the day: 1.16523 to 1.16411 (-11.2 pips), range 23.0
Before the American session 1.16554 to 1.16396 (-15.8 pips), range 19.7
vertical The session ahead carries the ECB monetary policy meeting accounts at 11:30 UTC, followed by several US economic data releases at 12:30 UTC. Among these, initial jobless claims are expected at 208K, while the advance goods trade balance is forecast at -99B and wholesale inventories are expected at 0.1%.
Due in the next session:
- EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv
- US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 208K, previous 206K
- US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — forecast 0.1%, previous 0.2%
- US Goods Trade Balance Adv — forecast -99B, previous -101.4B
26 August the day: 1.16704 to 1.16516 (-18.8 pips), range 34.9
At the close 1.16617 to 1.16533 (-8.4 pips), range 33.0
Resolved here: the forecast issued 21 August at 17:00 reached its continuation level, 1.16501, at 14:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.78%, previous 6.77%
- US PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous -0.1%
- US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.6% (below forecast), previous 1.1%
- US GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 3.6%
- US PCE Price Index YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.7%
- US Corporate Profits QoQ Prel — 8.2%, previous 0.5%
- US Personal Spending MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
- US Personal Income MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
- US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est — 1.5% against a forecast of 1.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.1%
- US Durable Goods Orders MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
- US Core PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.2% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -2.536M against a forecast of -0.7M (below forecast), previous 0.688M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 0.095M against a forecast of 0.6M (below forecast), previous 4.405M
- US Fed Barkin Speech
An upward forecast issued on 25 August was withdrawn at 14:00 UTC due to a trend flip. A batch of US economic data landed at 12:30 UTC, where Personal Income MoM came in at 0.4% against a 0.2% forecast, Personal Spending MoM reached 0.2% compared to the expected 0.1%, and Durable Goods Orders MoM printed at 1.1% against a 0.5% forecast. Core PCE Price Index MoM matched expectations at 0.2%, and the second estimate for GDP Growth Rate QoQ matched the 1.5% forecast.
At the close, a downward forecast issued at 17:00 UTC was standing. Price finished 24.0 pips above its continuation target of 1.1629 and 28.0 pips below its invalidation level of 1.1681. Ahead on the calendar, the US Jackson Hole Symposium is scheduled for 27 August.
Due in the next session:
- US Jackson Hole Symposium
25 August the day: 1.16624 to 1.16706 (+8.2 pips), range 28.5
Nothing was worth reporting from this session.
24 August the day: 1.16763 to 1.16623 (-14.0 pips), range 31.9
At the close 1.16641 to 1.16612 (-2.9 pips), range 19.5
Released during this session:
- US Chicago Fed National Activity Index — -0.08, previous 0.06
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent Speech
Two downward forecasts were withdrawn during the day after price formed a new extreme before reaching their entry corridors. The call issued on 21 August was removed at 08:00 UTC, while the forecast issued at 10:00 UTC was withdrawn at 18:00 UTC. By the session close, no forecast was standing.
On the economic calendar, the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index landed at -0.08, following a previous reading of 0.06. Treasury Secretary Bessent also spoke during the session, for which no numerical reading is available.
How the week stands so far
| Forecasts that ended this week | 1 |
|---|---|
| Reached the continuation level | 1 |
| Ended against the call | 0 |
| Issued this week | 0 |
| Still standing | 0 |
Over the whole record on EUR/USD, the continuation level came first in 69% of 440 forecasts. This week is 1 decisions, not a sample.
Earlier weeks
- 17 to 23 August 2026 — 3 forecasts ended, 3 at the continuation level, 0 against the call
- 10 to 16 August 2026 — 2 forecasts ended, 1 at the continuation level, 1 against the call
How far a EUR/USD pullback can go and still resume
The trend pulls back. Does it carry on, or has it turned? Measured on 4,559 EUR/USD pullbacks since 1999 on hourly bars — 2,983 used to build the curve and 1,576 more it had never seen. Depth is measured against the swing that came before it, so a half is a pullback that has given back half the move.
| Pullback depth | Resumed |
|---|---|
| 25% of the move given back | 72% |
| 35% of the move given back | 63% |
| 50% of the move given back | 50% |
| 60% of the move given back | 41% |
| 70% of the move given back | 31% |
| 85% of the move given back | 15% |
| 100% of the move given back | 0% |
The halfway point for EUR/USD is 50%: a pullback that has given back that much went on to a new extreme about half the time, so it is the depth at which this market stops being a trend that is resting and starts being a coin toss. Out of sample the curve landed 0.7 points from where it was built.
What this cannot tell you
It gives no date and no time.
If the question is really "will EUR/USD reach this price", that is a different measurement and it has its own page: how often EUR/USD reaches a level once it is set, by distance and within 4, 8, 24 or 48 hours.
Descriptive only, and not investment advice. Turnmarks publishes what has happened after past setups; nobody here knows what price will do next, and a page that told you otherwise would be selling you something.
The method, the calibration and the same question across 15 markets: the pullback study. Or every past marker on EUR/USD and what followed it.
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