EUR/USD forecast
The forecast standing on EUR/USD now
The reading takes the nearest live zone on each side of price, where there is one. Price is expected to come back into it, turn there, and travel on to the target band beyond it. It gives no date and no time.
Rebuilt before each session — 23:00, 06:00 and 12:00 UTC.
This forecast has its own page, and every EUR/USD forecast is published as it is issued and again when it resolves: EUR/USD feed - all markets - what else you can subscribe to.
This week so far, 5 to 11 October 2026
9 October the day: 1.1212 to 1.1202 (-10.0 pips), range 56.0
At the close 1.1216 to 1.1202 (-14.0 pips), range 34.0
Released during this session:
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — 46.3 against a forecast of 47.6 (below forecast), previous 48.1
A downward bounce forecast was issued at 18:00 UTC targeting 1.1190, against an entry zone between 1.1220 and 1.1231. At the close, the forecast was still standing, with price sitting 12.0 pips from the target band.
Earlier in the session, the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment index came in at 46.3, missing the forecasted 47.6.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Collins Speech
Before the American session 1.1229 to 1.1216 (-13.0 pips), range 27.0
Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures are scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC, with an expected reading of 47.6.
At the close of the window, the downward forecast issued on 7 October remained standing, sitting 17.0 pips from its target band at 1.1224. The rebound zone for this call sits between 1.1257 and 1.1270.
Due in the next session:
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — forecast 47.6, previous 48.1
Before the European session 1.1214 to 1.1230 (+16.0 pips), range 27.0
At the close of the window, a bounce forecast issued on 7 October was still standing with a down trend. The call targets 1.1224 from a zone between 1.1257 and 1.1270, with price ending the session 6.0 pips from that level.
8 October the day: 1.1196 to 1.1212 (+16.0 pips), range 55.0
At the close 1.1184 to 1.1209 (+25.0 pips), range 55.0
Released during this session:
- EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- US Initial Jobless Claims — 197K against a forecast of 200K (below forecast), previous 199K
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — 3.6% against a forecast of 3.7% (below forecast), previous 3.7%
- US Fed Musalem Speech
A bounce leg down-trend forecast issued on 7 October remained standing at the close, with price finishing 10.0 pips away from its 1.1224 target.
During the session, US Initial Jobless Claims printed at 197K against an expected 200K, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow reading landed at 3.6% compared to a 3.7% forecast. The ECB published its Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, for which no numerical reading is available, alongside scheduled speeches by Fed officials Waller and Musalem.
Before the American session 1.1205 to 1.1184 (-21.0 pips), range 31.0
Released during this session:
- US Fed Waller Speech
Fed Waller was scheduled to speak at 08:30 UTC during the session. Coming up next, the European Central Bank publishes its Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 11:30 UTC, before US Initial Jobless Claims land at 12:30 UTC with an expectation of 200K against a previous 197K.
The downward forecast issued on 7 October remained standing at the 11:00 UTC close, targeting 1.1224 on a bounce leg. At the end of the window, price sat 40.0 pips from the target.
Due in the next session:
- EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 200K, previous 199K
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — forecast 3.7%, previous 3.7%
Before the European session 1.1196 to 1.1205 (+9.0 pips), range 22.0
A downward forecast issued on 7 October was still standing at 05:00 UTC, seeking a bounce into the 1.1257–1.1270 zone targeting 1.1224. At the end of the window, the close sat 19.0 pips below that target level.
Fed Governor Waller is scheduled to speak at 08:30 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Waller Speech
7 October the day: 1.1258 to 1.1196 (-62.0 pips), range 98.0
At the close 1.1190 to 1.1196 (+6.0 pips), range 39.0
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 7.49%, previous 7.3%
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -3.186M against a forecast of 1.7M (below forecast), previous 0.922M
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 0.382M against a forecast of -1.7M (above forecast), previous -1.684M
- US FOMC Minutes
At the close, the downward bounce forecast issued at 08:00 UTC with a target at 1.1224 remained live, sitting 28.0 pips from its target. Earlier in the day, a bounce forecast issued on 6 October was withdrawn at 07:00 UTC.
On the calendar, the FOMC Minutes were scheduled at 18:00 UTC, though no reading is recorded for the release.
Before the American session 1.1233 to 1.1190 (-43.0 pips), range 55.0
An upward bounce forecast issued on 6 October was withdrawn at 07:00 UTC without reaching its target.
A fresh downward bounce forecast was issued at 08:00 UTC with a zone between 1.1257 and 1.1270 and a target band at 1.1224. At the close of the window at 11:00 UTC, price stood 34.0 pips short of that target.
Due in the next session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast 1.7M, previous 0.922M
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -1.7M, previous -1.684M
Before the European session 1.1260 to 1.1233 (-27.0 pips), range 35.0
Released during this session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -2.09M, previous 1.019M
- US Fed Logan Speech
An upward bounce forecast issued at 12:00 UTC on 6 October remained active through the session. At 05:00 UTC, price closed 3.0 pips from the 1.1230 target band after tracing a 35.0 pip range between 1.1263 and 1.1228.
During the window, the US API Crude Oil Stock Change was reported at -2.09M, and Federal Reserve official Logan was scheduled to speak.
6 October the day: 1.1219 to 1.1260 (+41.0 pips), range 74.0
At the close 1.1243 to 1.1260 (+17.0 pips), range 36.0
Released during this session:
- US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 23.75K, previous 20K
- US Exports — 315.2B, previous 310.7B
- US Balance of Trade — -105.6B against a forecast of -102B (below forecast), previous -92.8B
- US Imports — 420.8B, previous 403.6B
- US Fed Williams Speech
- US Fed Bowman Speech
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.7% (in line with forecast), previous 3.7%
- US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
- US Fed Schmid Speech
Six older downside bounce forecasts ended at 11:00 UTC. Earlier in the morning, two downside bounce calls issued on 5 October failed at 08:00 UTC and 09:00 UTC. A new upward bounce forecast was issued at 12:00 UTC toward a target at 1.1230, sitting 30.0 pips from the market at the close.
Earlier in the day, Eurozone retail sales MoM printed at 0.1% against a forecast of 0.2%. During the US session, the US balance of trade landed at -105.6B against an expected -102B forecast. Speeches by Fed officials Williams, Bowman, and Schmid were also scheduled during the window.
Due in the next session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change
- US Fed Logan Speech
Before the American session 1.1217 to 1.1243 (+26.0 pips), range 46.0
Released during this session:
- EU Retail Sales MoM — 0.1% against a forecast of 0.2% (below forecast), previous -0.6%
Two downward bounce forecasts resolved as failed during the session, with price breaking above their entry zones at 08:00 UTC and 09:00 UTC respectively.
At 09:00 UTC, EU Retail Sales MoM landed at 0.1% against an expected 0.2%. At the close, an earlier downward bounce forecast issued on 30 September was still standing, with price sitting 83.0 pips from its target at 1.1326.
Ahead in the US session, US Balance of Trade is scheduled for 12:30 UTC with an expected -102B, alongside weekly ADP employment figures and speeches from Fed officials Williams and Bowman.
Due in the next session:
- US ADP Employment Change Weekly
- US Exports
- US Balance of Trade — forecast -102B, previous -92.8B
- US Imports
- US Fed Williams Speech
- US Fed Bowman Speech
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — forecast 3.7%, previous 3.7%
- US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
Before the European session 1.1220 to 1.1217 (-3.0 pips), range 19.0
At 05:00 UTC, a downward bounce forecast issued on 5 October was still standing, with its target at 1.1166 sitting 51.0 pips below the close.
Ahead in the European session, EU retail sales data is scheduled for release at 09:00 UTC, with expectations set at 0.2%.
Due in the next session:
- EU Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.2%, previous -0.6%
5 October the day: 1.1250 to 1.1220 (-30.0 pips), range 100.0
At the close 1.1200 to 1.1220 (+20.0 pips), range 34.0
Released during this session:
- US ISM Services PMI — 54.9 against a forecast of 55 (below forecast), previous 55.4
An earlier downward forecast issued on 1 October reached its 1.1219 target at 02:00 UTC. During the session, US ISM Services PMI landed at 14:00 UTC with a reading of 54.9 against an expected 55.
A downward forecast issued at 04:00 UTC on a bounce leg remained unresolved at the 20:00 UTC close, with the pair finishing at 1.1220, sitting 54 pips short of the 1.1166 target band.
Before the American session 1.1183 to 1.1200 (+17.0 pips), range 52.0
Ahead in the American session, major scheduled data includes the US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC, with a forecast of 55.
At the close of the window, a downward forecast issued at 04:00 UTC on a bounce leg was still standing. Its zone sits between 1.1207 and 1.1224 toward a target of 1.1166, leaving the quote 34.0 pips short of the target band.
Due in the next session:
- US ISM Services PMI — forecast 55, previous 55.4
Before the European session 1.1258 to 1.1182 (-76.0 pips), range 100.0
Resolved here: the forecast issued 1 October at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1219, at 02:00 UTC.
A downward forecast issued on 1 October reached its target on a bounce leg during the overnight session.
A new downward forecast on a bounce leg was issued at 04:00 UTC, with its target sitting 16 pips below the close.
How the week stands so far
| Forecasts that ended this week | 10 |
|---|---|
| Reached the level they named | 1 |
| Ended without reaching it | 9 |
| Issued this week | 8 |
| Still standing | 5 |
Earlier weeks
- 28 September to 4 October 2026 — 3 forecasts ended, 3 at the level they named
How far a EUR/USD pullback can go and still resume
The trend pulls back. Does it carry on, or has it turned? Measured on 4,776 EUR/USD pullbacks since 1999 on hourly bars — 3,162 used to build the curve and 1,614 more it had never seen. Depth is measured against the swing that came before it, so a half is a pullback that has given back half the move.
| Pullback depth | Resumed |
|---|---|
| 25% of the move given back | 72% |
| 35% of the move given back | 62% |
| 50% of the move given back | 49% |
| 60% of the move given back | 40% |
| 70% of the move given back | 30% |
| 85% of the move given back | 14% |
| 100% of the move given back | 0% |
The halfway point for EUR/USD is 49%: a pullback that has given back that much went on to a new extreme about half the time, so it is the depth at which this market stops being a trend that is resting and starts being a coin toss. Out of sample the curve landed 0.8 points from where it was built.
What this cannot tell you
It gives no date and no time.
If the question is really "will EUR/USD reach this price", that is a different measurement and it has its own page: how often EUR/USD reaches a level once it is set, by distance and within 4, 8, 24 or 48 hours.
Descriptive only, and not investment advice. Turnmarks publishes what has happened after past setups; nobody here knows what price will do next, and a page that told you otherwise would be selling you something.
The method, the calibration and the same question across 15 markets: the pullback study. Or every past marker on EUR/USD and what followed it.
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