US30 forecast review, 10 to 16 August 2026
The last forecast of the week
Issued 2026-08-13 18:00 UTC, downward, from a corridor between 53827.61 and 53909.78. It continues at 53473.29 and is invalidated at 54055.28.
It reached the continuation level, 53473.29, at 2026-08-17 17:00 UTC — after this week had closed.
Forecasts on this market have taken a median of 42 hours to reach one of their two levels, over the 30 that have resolved.
Session by session
14 August the day: 53875.82 to 53701.53 (-174.3 points), range 247.8
At the close 53776.30 to 53734.59 (-41.7 points), range 208.3
Released during this session:
- US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — -0.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (below forecast), previous -0.2%
- US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — -0.4% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.4%
- US Retail Sales MoM — -0.6% against a forecast of 0.1% (below forecast), previous 0.2%
- US Fed Venable Speech
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — 51 against a forecast of 54.5 (below forecast), previous 55.2
- US Business Inventories MoM — 0% against a forecast of 0.1% (below forecast), previous 0.4%
The downward forecast issued on 13 August remains live. The session closed with US30 sitting 261.3 points away from the continuation target of 53473.3 and 320.7 points from the invalidation level at 54055.3. The projection was originally generated from a zone between 53827.6 and 53909.8.
During the window, US Retail Sales MoM was published at 12:30 UTC alongside Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM and Retail Sales Control Group MoM. A speech by Fed Venable followed at 13:00 UTC, before Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel and Business Inventories MoM crossed at 14:00 UTC.
What followed: that forecast reached its continuation level of 53473.29 on 17 August at 17:00 UTC.
13 August the day: 53794.53 to 53836.23 (+41.7 points), range 433.5
At the close 53895.59 to 53839.20 (-56.4 points), range 433.5
Resolved here: the forecast issued 6 August at 23:00 reached its continuation level, 53667.77, at 15:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
- US Core PPI MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.4%
- US Initial Jobless Claims — 209K against a forecast of 202K (above forecast), previous 200K
- US PPI MoM — 0% against a forecast of 0.2% (below forecast), previous -0.1%
- US Fed Barkin Speech
A downward forecast issued on 6 August reached its continuation target of 53667.8 at 15:00 UTC.
Economic releases during the session included US PPI MoM, Core PPI MoM, and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, alongside Fed speeches by Hammack at 12:15 UTC and Barkin at 12:40 UTC.
A fresh downward forecast was issued at 18:00 UTC from a zone between 53827.6 and 53909.8, setting a target level of 53473.3 and an invalidation level of 54055.3. At the close, US30 sat 365.9 points from the target and 216.1 points from the break level.
12 August the day: 53811.04 to 53800.21 (-10.8 points), range 243.6
At the close 53839.09 to 53769.74 (-69.3 points), range 243.6
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.77%, previous 6.81%
- US CPI s.a — 332.81, previous 332.57
- US CPI — 333.92 against a forecast of 333.99 (below forecast), previous 333.95
- US Core Inflation Rate MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.2% (in line with forecast), previous 0%
- US Inflation Rate YoY — 3.4% against a forecast of 3.4% (in line with forecast), previous 3.5%
- US Inflation Rate MoM — 0.1% against a forecast of 0.1% (in line with forecast), previous -0.4%
- US Core Inflation Rate YoY — 2.5% against a forecast of 2.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.6%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -0.968M against a forecast of -1.2M (above forecast), previous -1.643M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 17.422M against a forecast of -1.4M (above forecast), previous 2.479M
- US Monthly Budget Statement — -432B against a forecast of -346B (below forecast), previous -120B
A series of US inflation metrics landed at 12:30 UTC, including the Core Inflation Rate MoM, Core Inflation Rate YoY, Inflation Rate MoM, and Inflation Rate YoY.
An active downward forecast issued on 2026-08-06 from the 54074.8–54174.0 zone points toward a continuation target at 53667.8. At the session close, price sits 101.9 points above this target, with the invalidation level standing at 54342.7, 573.0 points away.
11 August the day: 53948.00 to 53790.70 (-157.3 points), range 476.0
At the close 53943.30 to 53788.23 (-155.1 points), range 476.0
Released during this session:
- US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 8.25K, previous 11K
- US Existing Home Sales — 4.06M against a forecast of 4.05M (above forecast), previous 4.13M
- US Existing Home Sales MoM — -1.7%, previous -1.4%
US Existing Home Sales data landed at 14:00 UTC, following the weekly ADP Employment Change release at 12:15 UTC. Across the session, US30 traded through a 476.1-point range between a high of 54228.3 and a low of 53752.2.
A downward forecast issued on 6 August from the 54074.8–54174.0 zone remains active. With the close at 53788.2, price sits 120.4 points above the continuation target of 53667.8 and 554.5 points below the invalidation mark at 54342.7.
Due in the next session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast -0.5M, previous 2.69M
10 August the day: 53959.97 to 53928.16 (-31.8 points), range 210.8
Nothing was worth reporting from this session.
How the week ended
How the week ended
| Forecasts that ended this week | 1 |
|---|---|
| Reached the continuation level | 1 |
| Ended against the call | 0 |
| Issued this week | 1 |
| Still standing on Sunday | 1 |
| Week open to close | 53959.97 to 53701.53 (-258.4 points) |
| Week range | 53618.79 to 54228.25 (609.5 points) |
Over the whole record on Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30), the continuation level came first in 66% of 446 forecasts. This week is 1 decisions, not a sample.
The week
For US30, 1 forecast settled during the week of 10 to 16 August 2026, reaching its continuation level rather than its invalidation level. Over the same period, 1 new forecast was issued and remained open at the close of the week.
During the week, US30 opened at 53960.0 and closed at 53701.5, marking a change of -258.5 points. The price spanned a range of 609.5 points between a high of 54228.3 and a low of 53618.8. The US economic schedule for the week included releases for Existing Home Sales, Core Inflation Rate MoM, Inflation Rate YoY, Inflation Rate MoM, Core Inflation Rate YoY, PPI MoM, Retail Sales MoM, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel.
The forecast issued on 2026-08-13T18:00:00+00:00 indicates a down trend, with a zone between 53827.6 and 53909.8, a continuation target at 53473.3, and an invalidation target at 54055.3. Across 446 tracked forecasts for this market, the continuation level came first in 66% of cases.
Every forecast that ended this week
| Issued | Direction | Corridor | Continuation | Invalidation | Reached | Ended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 23:00 | down | 54074.75 - 54173.96 | 53667.77 | 54342.69 | continuation | 2026-08-13 15:00 |
On the calendar this week
- 10 August, 19:00 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 11 August, 12:15 UTC - US ADP Employment Change Weekly
- 11 August, 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales
- 11 August, 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales MoM
- 11 August, 20:30 UTC - US API Crude Oil Stock Change
- 12 August, 11:00 UTC - US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 12 August, 12:30 UTC - US CPI s.a
- 12 August, 12:30 UTC - US CPI
- 12 August, 12:30 UTC - US Core Inflation Rate MoM
- 12 August, 12:30 UTC - US Inflation Rate YoY
- 12 August, 12:30 UTC - US Inflation Rate MoM
- 12 August, 12:30 UTC - US Core Inflation Rate YoY
- 12 August, 14:30 UTC - US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
- 12 August, 14:30 UTC - US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- 12 August, 18:00 UTC - US Monthly Budget Statement
- 13 August, 09:00 UTC - EU Industrial Production MoM
- 13 August, 12:15 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 13 August, 12:30 UTC - US Core PPI MoM
- 13 August, 12:30 UTC - US Initial Jobless Claims
- 13 August, 12:30 UTC - US PPI MoM
- 13 August, 12:40 UTC - US Fed Barkin Speech
- 14 August, 09:00 UTC - EU Employment Change QoQ Prel
- 14 August, 09:00 UTC - EU Employment Change YoY Prel
- 14 August, 09:00 UTC - EU Balance of Trade
- 14 August, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
- 14 August, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales Control Group MoM
- 14 August, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales MoM
- 14 August, 13:00 UTC - US Fed Venable Speech
- 14 August, 14:00 UTC - US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel
- 14 August, 14:00 UTC - US Business Inventories MoM