US30 forecast
The last US30 forecast, and why it was withdrawn
This call was withdrawn on 2026-08-27 10:00 UTC because the trend it belonged to turned over. That is not a miss: the rule stops standing behind a call once the market has moved past it, and draws the next one from where price actually is. Until it does, there is no standing forecast on this market.
Of every forecast this rule has made on US30 and that has since resolved, price came back into the zone first in 63% of them. In the other 37% it reached the new extreme without pulling back into the zone at all.
Rebuilt before each session — 23:00, 06:00 and 12:00 UTC.
This week so far, 24 to 30 August 2026
27 August the day: 53616.57 to 53339.00 (-277.6 points), range 420.6
Before the American session 53608.80 to 53445.51 (-163.3 points), range 218.9
Ahead of the American session, US economic data at 12:30 UTC includes Initial Jobless Claims, forecasted at 208K compared to the previous reading of 206K. Preliminary figures for the Goods Trade Balance, expected at -99B, and Wholesale Inventories, expected at 0.1%, are scheduled for release at the same time.
Earlier in the schedule, the European Central Bank releases its Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 11:30 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv
- US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 208K, previous 206K
- US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — forecast 0.1%, previous 0.2%
- US Goods Trade Balance Adv — forecast -99B, previous -101.4B
Before the European session 53475.71 to 53607.80 (+132.1 points), range 288.8
Released during this session:
- US Jackson Hole Symposium
US30 traversed a 288.8-point range across the window, spanning 3.7 times its hourly average true range. The Jackson Hole Symposium took place at 00:00 UTC during the session.
26 August the day: 53570.80 to 53604.26 (+33.5 points), range 335.3
At the close 53576.55 to 53472.78 (-103.8 points), range 335.3
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.78%, previous 6.77%
- US PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous -0.1%
- US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.6% (below forecast), previous 1.1%
- US GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 3.6%
- US PCE Price Index YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.7%
- US Corporate Profits QoQ Prel — 8.2%, previous 0.5%
- US Personal Spending MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
- US Personal Income MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
- US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est — 1.5% against a forecast of 1.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.1%
- US Durable Goods Orders MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
- US Core PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.2% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -2.536M against a forecast of -0.7M (below forecast), previous 0.688M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 0.095M against a forecast of 0.6M (below forecast), previous 4.405M
- US Fed Barkin Speech
US30 spanned a range of 335.4 points across the session, equivalent to 3.99 times its hourly average true range. A heavy slate of US economic data arrived at 12:30 UTC, including second estimates for quarterly GDP growth alongside Core PCE, Personal Spending, Personal Income, and Durable Goods Orders figures.
Due in the next session:
- US Jackson Hole Symposium
25 August the day: 53453.51 to 53581.73 (+128.2 points), range 355.1
Nothing was worth reporting from this session.
24 August the day: 53292.30 to 53427.50 (+135.2 points), range 361.3
At the close 53188.80 to 53417.09 (+228.3 points), range 361.3
Released during this session:
- US Chicago Fed National Activity Index — -0.08, previous 0.06
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent Speech
An upward forecast issued on 23 August aimed for a target of 53496.9. During the session, price pushed to a high of 53501.1, but at the close at 20:00 UTC, the forecast had not resolved and sat 79.8 points below the continuation level.
Treasury Secretary Bessent spoke at 18:00 UTC during a session that spanned a 361.3-point range.
What followed: that forecast reached its continuation level of 53496.91 on 25 August at 06:00 UTC.
How the week stands so far
| Forecasts that ended this week | 1 |
|---|---|
| Reached the continuation level | 1 |
| Ended against the call | 0 |
| Issued this week | 1 |
| Still standing | 0 |
Over the whole record on US30, the continuation level came first in 66% of 446 forecasts. This week is 1 decisions, not a sample.
Earlier weeks
- 17 to 23 August 2026 — 4 forecasts ended, 3 at the continuation level, 1 against the call
- 10 to 16 August 2026 — 1 forecast ended, 1 at the continuation level, 0 against the call
Why there is no pullback curve for US30
Every other instrument here carries one: how often the trend resumed from each depth of pullback. US30 does not, because the study has not been run on it. That is not a verdict: nothing here has tested whether the pullback law holds on an index, and publishing a curve borrowed from currency pairs would be presenting an untested guess as a measurement.
What is above still holds: the same feed, the same markers and the same measurement as every other page here.
What this cannot tell you
It gives no date and no time.
If the question is really "will US30 reach this price", that is a different measurement and it has its own page: how often US30 reaches a level once it is set, by distance and within 4, 8, 24 or 48 hours.
Descriptive only, and not investment advice. Turnmarks publishes what has happened after past setups; nobody here knows what price will do next, and a page that told you otherwise would be selling you something.
The method, the calibration and the same question across 15 markets: the pullback study. Or every past marker on US30 and what followed it.
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