WTI forecast review, 24 to 30 August 2026

28 August the day: 83.58 to 83.39 (-19.0 cents), range 150.0

At the close 83.24 to 83.37 (+13.0 cents), range 146.0

Released during this session:

• 13:45 UTC US Chicago PMI — 47.1 against a forecast of 58.3 (below forecast), previous 57.6
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final — 51.7 against a forecast of 51 (above forecast), previous 55.2
• 14:00 UTC US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
• 14:00 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prel — -79K, previous -911K
• 16:30 UTC US Fed Goolsbee Speech

Major US data released at 14:00 UTC saw the Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prel land at -79K alongside a scheduled speech by Fed Chair Warsh. Earlier at 13:45 UTC, US Chicago PMI printed at 47.1 against the 58.3 forecast, while Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final arrived at 51.7 against a 51 forecast.

At the close, the upward forecast issued on 26 August was still standing, sitting 108.0 cents short of its 84.48 target and 379.0 cents above invalidation at 79.61.

Ahead in the upcoming session, the Jackson Hole Symposium is scheduled for 00:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

What followed: that forecast reached its continuation level of 84.48 on 30 August at 22:00 UTC.

Before the American session 83.26 to 83.25 (-1.0 cents), range 107.0

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Economic Sentiment — 98.4 against a forecast of 97.5 (above forecast), previous 97.1

Two major US calendar items are scheduled for 14:00 UTC ahead of the session, with Fed Chair Warsh due to speak alongside the preliminary annual Non-Farm Payrolls revision. Earlier in the morning, European Economic Sentiment crossed at 98.4 against an expected 97.5.

At 11:00 UTC, the upward forecast issued on 26 August had not resolved and remained standing. At the window's close, WTI sat 128.0 cents below the 84.48 target and 359.0 cents above the 79.61 invalidation level.

Due in the next session:

• 13:45 UTC US Chicago PMI — forecast 58.3, previous 57.6
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final — forecast 51, previous 55.2
• 14:00 UTC US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
• 14:00 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prel
• 16:30 UTC US Fed Goolsbee Speech

Before the European session 83.61 to 83.25 (-36.0 cents), range 72.0

Released during this session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

The Jackson Hole Symposium was scheduled during the session, with no reading available from the event.

At the end of the window at 05:00 UTC, the upward forecast issued on 26 August was still standing. Its continuation target sat at 84.48 cents, 118.0 cents above the close, while the invalidation level at 79.61 cents was 369.0 cents below.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Economic Sentiment — forecast 97.5, previous 97.1

27 August the day: 81.94 to 83.52 (+158.0 cents), range 359.0

At the close 82.22 to 83.62 (+140.0 cents), range 225.0

Released during this session:

• 11:30 UTC EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv — 0.7%, previous -0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 203K against a forecast of 208K (below forecast), previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — 1.3% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Goods Trade Balance Adv — -118.8B against a forecast of -99B (below forecast), previous -101.41B

The upward forecast issued on 26 August at 19:00 UTC was still standing at the 20:00 UTC close, ending the session 88.0 cents below its upside target of 84.48 and 399.0 cents above the 79.61 invalidation level.

Several US economic figures landed at 12:30 UTC. Initial Jobless Claims printed at 203K against a 208K forecast, while Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv came in at 1.3% versus the expected 0.1%. The Goods Trade Balance Adv stood at -118.8B compared to the -99B forecast, and Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv landed at 0.7%. Earlier in the session at 11:30 UTC, the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts took place, though no reading was available.

Ahead on the calendar, the Jackson Hole Symposium is scheduled for 00:00 UTC on 28 August.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

Before the American session 81.81 to 82.22 (+41.0 cents), range 188.0

The session spanned a 188.0 cent range across the six hours leading into the American window.

Ahead in the US session, Initial Jobless Claims are scheduled for 12:30 UTC with a forecast of 208K, alongside Wholesale Inventories expected at 0.1% and the Goods Trade Balance projected at -99B.

Due in the next session:

• 11:30 UTC EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 208K, previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — forecast 0.1%, previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Goods Trade Balance Adv — forecast -99B, previous -101.41B

26 August the day: 81.22 to 81.86 (+64.0 cents), range 365.0

At the close 80.22 to 81.91 (+169.0 cents), range 318.0

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.78%, previous 6.77%
• 12:30 UTC US PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous -0.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.6% (below forecast), previous 1.1%
• 12:30 UTC US GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 3.6%
• 12:30 UTC US PCE Price Index YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.7%
• 12:30 UTC US Corporate Profits QoQ Prel — 8.2%, previous 0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Personal Spending MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Personal Income MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est — 1.5% against a forecast of 1.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods Orders MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Core PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.2% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -2.536M against a forecast of -0.7M (below forecast), previous 0.688M
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 0.095M against a forecast of 0.6M (below forecast), previous 4.405M
• 15:45 UTC US Fed Barkin Speech

WTI expanded across a 318.0 cent range during the session, spanning 5.04 times the hourly ATR.

A batch of major US economic releases, including GDP growth, Core PCE, Personal Income, Personal Spending, and Durable Goods Orders, landed at 12:30 UTC, followed by the EIA crude oil and gasoline stocks data at 14:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

25 August the day: 85.00 to 81.04 (-396.0 cents), range 561.0

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.

24 August the day: 86.39 to 84.93 (-146.0 cents), range 218.0

At the close 85.34 to 85.01 (-33.0 cents), range 167.0

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Chicago Fed National Activity Index — -0.08, previous 0.06
• 17:00 UTC US Treasury Secretary Bessent Speech

WTI covered a 167.0 cents range across the session, measuring 2.69 hourly ATRs. Treasury Secretary Bessent spoke at 18:00 UTC during the window.

At the close, the downward forecast issued at 04:00 UTC had not resolved. It finished 129.0 cents short of its 83.72 target level and 318.0 cents from invalidation at 88.19.