WTI forecast
The forecast standing on WTI now
The reading takes the nearest live zone on each side of price, where there is one. Price is expected to come back into it, turn there, and travel on to the target band beyond it. It gives no date and no time.
Rebuilt before each session — 23:00, 06:00 and 12:00 UTC.
This forecast has its own page, and every WTI forecast is published as it is issued and again when it resolves: WTI feed - all markets - what else you can subscribe to.
This week so far, 5 to 11 October 2026
9 October the day: 91.15 to 91.00 (-15.0 cents), range 212.0
At the close 90.53 to 91.00 (+47.0 cents), range 185.0
Resolved here: the forecast issued 8 October at 08:00 reached its invalidation level, 91.66, at 12:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — 46.3 against a forecast of 47.6 (below forecast), previous 48.1
An upward forecast issued on 8 October resolved as a bounce leg during the session, reaching its target.
US preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment landed at 46.3 against a forecast of 47.6.
At the close, another upward bounce forecast issued on 8 October remained standing, with price finishing 173.0 cents short of its target.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Collins Speech
8 October the day: 88.97 to 91.15 (+218.0 cents), range 445.0
Nothing was worth reporting from this session.
7 October the day: 89.83 to 88.90 (-93.0 cents), range 297.0
At the close 89.91 to 88.96 (-95.0 cents), range 297.0
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 7.49%, previous 7.3%
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -3.186M against a forecast of 1.7M (below forecast), previous 0.922M
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 0.382M against a forecast of -1.7M (above forecast), previous -1.684M
- US FOMC Minutes
A downward bounce forecast was issued at 18:00 UTC, setting a zone between 89.96 and 90.65 with a target of 88.23. At the close, it had not resolved, with price sitting 73.0 cents above the target band.
Earlier in the session, US EIA crude oil inventories showed a draw of -3.186M barrels against a forecasted 1.7M build, while gasoline stocks grew by 0.382M against an expected -1.7M draw. The FOMC minutes were also released at 18:00 UTC.
Before the American session 90.00 to 89.94 (-6.0 cents), range 104.0
A downward forecast issued on 5 October remained active at the end of the window, targeting 91.06 on a bounce leg, with the close sitting 112.0 cents short of the target band.
EIA crude oil stock change figures are scheduled for release later in the US session at 14:30 UTC, with a forecast of 1.9M.
Due in the next session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast 1.7M, previous 0.922M
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -1.7M, previous -1.684M
Before the European session 89.73 to 90.00 (+27.0 cents), range 95.0
Released during this session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -2.09M, previous 1.019M
- US Fed Logan Speech
A downward forecast issued on 5 October with a target of 91.06 remained live at the close of the session, sitting 106.0 cents below the target level.
During the window, the US API crude oil stock change was reported at -2.09M following a previous reading of 1.019M, and Fed Logan spoke.
6 October the day: 89.22 to 89.87 (+65.0 cents), range 318.0
At the close 87.65 to 89.73 (+208.0 cents), range 298.0
Released during this session:
- US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 23.75K, previous 20K
- US Exports — 315.2B, previous 310.7B
- US Balance of Trade — -105.6B against a forecast of -102B (below forecast), previous -92.8B
- US Imports — 420.8B, previous 403.6B
- US Fed Williams Speech
- US Fed Bowman Speech
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.7% (in line with forecast), previous 3.7%
- US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
- US Fed Schmid Speech
An earlier forecast issued on 1 September reached its target at 87.47 as a reversal at 09:00 UTC. At the close, a downward bounce forecast issued on 5 October was still standing, with price sitting 133.0 cents away from its 91.06 target.
In the economic calendar, the US Balance of Trade landed at -105.6B against a forecast of -102B, while the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook was released with no reading available. The US API Crude Oil Stock Change is scheduled after the close at 20:30 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change
- US Fed Logan Speech
Before the European session 89.24 to 89.91 (+67.0 cents), range 107.0
A downward forecast calling for a bounce, issued at 19:00 UTC on 5 October, remained active throughout the window. At 05:00 UTC, it was still standing, with the close sitting 115.0 cents from its 91.06 target.
Ahead in the European session, EU Retail Sales MoM is scheduled for 09:00 UTC with an expected reading of 0.2%.
Due in the next session:
- EU Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.2%, previous -0.6%
5 October the day: 91.61 to 89.26 (-235.0 cents), range 312.0
Before the European session 91.61 to 90.30 (-131.0 cents), range 218.0
An upward forecast was issued at 23:00 UTC, targeting 91.48 with a bounce expected from the 87.94–89.27 zone. At the close of the window, the move had not resolved, with price sitting 118.0 cents from the target.
How the week stands so far
| Forecasts that ended this week | 7 |
|---|---|
| Reached the level they named | 3 |
| Ended without reaching it | 4 |
| Issued this week | 8 |
| Still standing | 3 |
Earlier weeks
- 28 September to 4 October 2026 — 6 forecasts ended, 1 at the level they named
Why there is no pullback curve for WTI
Every other instrument here carries one: how often the trend resumed from each depth of pullback. WTI does not, because the study has not been run on it. That is not a verdict: nothing here has tested whether the pullback law holds on an index, and publishing a curve borrowed from currency pairs would be presenting an untested guess as a measurement.
What is above still holds: the same feed, the same markers and the same measurement as every other page here.
What this cannot tell you
It gives no date and no time.
If the question is really "will WTI reach this price", that is a different measurement and it has its own page: how often WTI reaches a level once it is set, by distance and within 4, 8, 24 or 48 hours.
Descriptive only, and not investment advice. Turnmarks publishes what has happened after past setups; nobody here knows what price will do next, and a page that told you otherwise would be selling you something.
The method, the calibration and the same question across 15 markets: the pullback study. Or every past marker on WTI and what followed it.
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