WTI forecast
The forecast standing on WTI now
The channel stopped rising, price closed clear of the trailing band, and from here the rule expects a pull-back into the bifurcation zone and then one of two levels. It gives no date and no time.
Of every forecast this rule has made on WTI and that has since resolved, price came back into the zone first in 67% of them. In the other 33% it reached the new extreme without pulling back into the zone at all.
Rebuilt before each session — 23:00, 06:00 and 12:00 UTC.
This week so far, 24 to 30 August 2026
27 August the day: 81.940 to 82.505 (+56.5 cents), range 213.5
Before the American session 81.815 to 82.215 (+40.0 cents), range 187.5
The session spanned a 188.0 cent range across the six hours leading into the American window.
Ahead in the US session, Initial Jobless Claims are scheduled for 12:30 UTC with a forecast of 208K, alongside Wholesale Inventories expected at 0.1% and the Goods Trade Balance projected at -99B.
Due in the next session:
- EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv
- US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 208K, previous 206K
- US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — forecast 0.1%, previous 0.2%
- US Goods Trade Balance Adv — forecast -99B, previous -101.4B
26 August the day: 81.216 to 81.862 (+64.6 cents), range 365.0
At the close 80.215 to 81.910 (+169.5 cents), range 318.5
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.78%, previous 6.77%
- US PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous -0.1%
- US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.6% (below forecast), previous 1.1%
- US GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 3.6%
- US PCE Price Index YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.7%
- US Corporate Profits QoQ Prel — 8.2%, previous 0.5%
- US Personal Spending MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
- US Personal Income MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
- US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est — 1.5% against a forecast of 1.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.1%
- US Durable Goods Orders MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
- US Core PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.2% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -2.536M against a forecast of -0.7M (below forecast), previous 0.688M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 0.095M against a forecast of 0.6M (below forecast), previous 4.405M
- US Fed Barkin Speech
WTI expanded across a 318.0 cent range during the session, spanning 5.04 times the hourly ATR.
A batch of major US economic releases, including GDP growth, Core PCE, Personal Income, Personal Spending, and Durable Goods Orders, landed at 12:30 UTC, followed by the EIA crude oil and gasoline stocks data at 14:30 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Jackson Hole Symposium
25 August the day: 85.000 to 81.042 (-395.8 cents), range 561.8
Nothing was worth reporting from this session.
24 August the day: 86.394 to 84.927 (-146.7 cents), range 217.7
At the close 85.345 to 85.006 (-33.9 cents), range 166.2
Released during this session:
- US Chicago Fed National Activity Index — -0.08, previous 0.06
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent Speech
WTI covered a 167.0 cents range across the session, measuring 2.69 hourly ATRs. Treasury Secretary Bessent spoke at 18:00 UTC during the window.
At the close, the downward forecast issued at 04:00 UTC had not resolved. It finished 129.0 cents short of its 83.72 target level and 318.0 cents from invalidation at 88.19.
What followed: that forecast reached its continuation level of 83.717 on 25 August at 08:00 UTC.
How the week stands so far
| Forecasts that ended this week | 1 |
|---|---|
| Reached the continuation level | 1 |
| Ended against the call | 0 |
| Issued this week | 1 |
| Still standing | 0 |
Over the whole record on WTI, the continuation level came first in 69% of 422 forecasts. This week is 1 decisions, not a sample.
Why there is no pullback curve for WTI
Every other instrument here carries one: how often the trend resumed from each depth of pullback. WTI does not, because the study has not been run on it. That is not a verdict: nothing here has tested whether the pullback law holds on an index, and publishing a curve borrowed from currency pairs would be presenting an untested guess as a measurement.
What is above still holds: the same feed, the same markers and the same measurement as every other page here.
What this cannot tell you
It gives no date and no time.
If the question is really "will WTI reach this price", that is a different measurement and it has its own page: how often WTI reaches a level once it is set, by distance and within 4, 8, 24 or 48 hours.
Descriptive only, and not investment advice. Turnmarks publishes what has happened after past setups; nobody here knows what price will do next, and a page that told you otherwise would be selling you something.
The method, the calibration and the same question across 15 markets: the pullback study. Or every past marker on WTI and what followed it.
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