XAU/USD forecast review, 10 to 16 August 2026

14 August the day: 4351.22 to 4374.20 (+23.0 dollars), range 86.4

At the close 4349.40 to 4375.88 (+26.5 dollars), range 48.5

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — -0.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (below forecast), previous -0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — -0.4% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales MoM — -0.6% against a forecast of 0.1% (below forecast), previous 0.2%
• 13:00 UTC US Fed Venable Speech
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — 51 against a forecast of 54.5 (below forecast), previous 55.2
• 14:00 UTC US Business Inventories MoM — 0% against a forecast of 0.1% (below forecast), previous 0.4%

A downward forecast issued at 05:00 UTC remains active from a zone between 4352.3 and 4371.0. At the close, the price sits 95.8 dollars above the continuation target at 4280.1 and 25.4 dollars below the invalidation level at 4401.3.

During the window, US Retail Sales MoM crossed at 12:30 UTC, followed by preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 14:00 UTC. The session covered a range of 48.5 dollars.

What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 4401.31 on 17 August at 00:00 UTC.

Before the American session 4326.90 to 4349.15 (+22.2 dollars), range 47.6

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Employment Change QoQ Prel — 0.1% against a forecast of 0.1% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
• 09:00 UTC EU Employment Change YoY Prel — 0.5% against a forecast of 0.6% (below forecast), previous 0.5%
• 09:00 UTC EU Balance of Trade — 8.6B against a forecast of -2.2B (above forecast), previous -9B

A downward forecast was issued at 05:00 UTC from a zone between 4352.3 and 4371.0, setting a target at 4280.1 with an invalidation level at 4401.3. At the close of the window, the price sits 69.1 dollars from the target and 52.1 dollars from invalidation.

During the session, European preliminary employment change figures and balance of trade data landed at 09:00 UTC. Ahead in the American session, US Retail Sales MoM is scheduled at 12:30 UTC, followed by the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment release at 14:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — forecast 0.2%, previous -0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.1%, previous 0.2%
• 13:00 UTC US Fed Venable Speech
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — forecast 54.5, previous 55.2
• 14:00 UTC US Business Inventories MoM — forecast 0.1%, previous 0.4%

Before the European session 4349.91 to 4326.77 (-23.1 dollars), range 53.6

Resolved here: the forecast issued 11 August at 05:00 reached its invalidation level, 4344.00, at 00:00 UTC.

An upward forecast issued on 11 August at 05:00 UTC resolved down when price reached the invalidation target of 4344.0 dollars at 00:00 UTC on 14 August.

Ahead in the European session, preliminary European Union quarterly and annual employment change data, alongside the trade balance, are scheduled for release at 09:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Employment Change QoQ Prel — forecast 0.1%, previous 0.1%
• 09:00 UTC EU Employment Change YoY Prel — forecast 0.6%, previous 0.5%
• 09:00 UTC EU Balance of Trade — forecast -2.2B, previous -9B

13 August the day: 4408.15 to 4349.26 (-58.9 dollars), range 106.1

At the close 4391.86 to 4349.93 (-41.9 dollars), range 58.6

Released during this session:

• 12:15 UTC US Fed Hammack Speech
• 12:30 UTC US Core PPI MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 209K against a forecast of 202K (above forecast), previous 200K
• 12:30 UTC US PPI MoM — 0% against a forecast of 0.2% (below forecast), previous -0.1%
• 12:40 UTC US Fed Barkin Speech

US PPI MoM landed at 12:30 UTC alongside Core PPI MoM and Initial Jobless Claims, while Fed speeches by Hammack (12:15 UTC) and Barkin (12:40 UTC) also took place during the window. The session covered a range of 58.6 dollars, measuring 3.12 ATR.

The upward forecast issued on 11 August 2026 at 05:00 UTC from the 4374.3–4392.6 zone remains active. With the session closing at 4349.9, price sits 5.9 dollars above the invalidation level at 4344.0 and 115.4 dollars below the continuation target at 4465.3.

12 August the day: 4369.56 to 4407.88 (+38.3 dollars), range 79.8

At the close 4412.61 to 4413.77 (+1.2 dollars), range 59.9

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.77%, previous 6.81%
• 12:30 UTC US CPI s.a — 332.81, previous 332.57
• 12:30 UTC US CPI — 333.92 against a forecast of 333.99 (below forecast), previous 333.95
• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.2% (in line with forecast), previous 0%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate YoY — 3.4% against a forecast of 3.4% (in line with forecast), previous 3.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate MoM — 0.1% against a forecast of 0.1% (in line with forecast), previous -0.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate YoY — 2.5% against a forecast of 2.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.6%
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -0.968M against a forecast of -1.2M (above forecast), previous -1.643M
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 17.422M against a forecast of -1.4M (above forecast), previous 2.479M
• 18:00 UTC US Monthly Budget Statement — -432B against a forecast of -346B (below forecast), previous -120B

The session generated a range of 59.9 dollars, equal to 3.11 hourly ATRs, alongside a cluster of US economic releases at 12:30 UTC that included Core Inflation Rate YoY, Inflation Rate YoY, and Inflation Rate MoM.

An upward forecast issued on 11 August remains active. At the close, price sits 51.5 dollars short of the 4465.3 target and 69.8 dollars above the 4344.0 invalidation level.

11 August the day: 4385.51 to 4368.65 (-16.9 dollars), range 78.7

At the close 4382.26 to 4370.70 (-11.6 dollars), range 43.8

Released during this session:

• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 8.25K, previous 11K
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales — 4.06M against a forecast of 4.05M (above forecast), previous 4.13M
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales MoM — -1.7%, previous -1.4%

An upward forecast issued at 05:00 UTC remains active, originating from an entry zone between 4374.3 and 4392.6. By the close, the market stood 94.6 dollars below the 4465.3 target and 26.7 dollars above the 4344.0 invalidation level. Across the rule's historical record of 2,653 forecasts, the initial zone target has been reached 66 percent of the time.

The session recorded a range of 43.8 dollars, with macroeconomic releases including US ADP Employment Change Weekly at 12:15 UTC followed by US Existing Home Sales at 14:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 20:30 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast -0.5M, previous 2.69M

Before the American session 4408.43 to 4382.12 (-26.3 dollars), range 52.5

An upward forecast was issued at 05:00 UTC from a zone between 4374.3 and 4392.6, setting a continuation target of 4465.3 and an invalidation level of 4344.0. At the close of the window, price stood at 4382.1, leaving the market 83.2 dollars short of the continuation target and 38.1 dollars above invalidation.

Ahead in the US session, Existing Home Sales is scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales — forecast 4.05M, previous 4.13M
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales MoM

Before the European session 4388.09 to 4408.53 (+20.4 dollars), range 49.5

Resolved here: the forecast issued 7 August at 15:00 reached its continuation level, 4408.42, at 00:00 UTC.

An upward forecast issued on 7 August at 15:00 UTC reached its continuation target at 4408.4 dollars on 11 August at 00:00 UTC. The signal had been issued from a corridor between 4298.2 and 4319.2 dollars.

10 August the day: 4342.78 to 4388.43 (+45.7 dollars), range 81.9

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.