XAU/USD forecast
The forecast standing on XAU/USD now
The reading takes the nearest live zone on each side of price, where there is one. Price is expected to come back into it, turn there, and travel on to the target band beyond it. It gives no date and no time.
Rebuilt before each session — 23:00, 06:00 and 12:00 UTC.
This forecast has its own page, and every XAU/USD forecast is published as it is issued and again when it resolves: XAU/USD feed - all markets - what else you can subscribe to.
This week so far, 5 to 11 October 2026
9 October the day: 4134.7 to 4198.5 (+63.8 dollars), range 77.0
At the close 4185.8 to 4198.5 (+12.7 dollars), range 33.7
Released during this session:
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — 46.3 against a forecast of 47.6 (below forecast), previous 48.1
Earlier in the day, prior to this session, a series of downward forecasts issued on 7 October ended, with five withdrawn and one failing when its zone was breached. During the session, the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading came in at 46.3 against an expected 47.6.
At the close, an upward forecast issued at 02:00 UTC targeting 4138.1 on a bounce leg had not resolved, sitting 60.4 dollars from the target band. Fed Collins was scheduled to speak at 20:00 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Collins Speech
Before the American session 4181.8 to 4185.7 (+3.9 dollars), range 25.5
Preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment is scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC, with a forecast of 47.6 following the previous reading of 48.1.
An upward bounce forecast issued at 02:00 UTC was still standing at 11:00 UTC. It points to a target at 4138.1 from a zone between 4086.3 and 4101.1, with price finishing the window 41.0 dollars from the target level.
Due in the next session:
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — forecast 47.6, previous 48.1
Before the European session 4133.1 to 4181.6 (+48.5 dollars), range 55.4
Several downward bounce calls were cleared during the session. A call issued on 7 October at 13:00 UTC failed at 00:00 UTC, while five earlier calls from 7 October were withdrawn at 01:00 UTC. A brief downward bounce forecast issued at 01:00 UTC was also dropped within the hour.
A new upward bounce forecast was issued at 02:00 UTC targeting 4138.1 dollars. At the close, it was still standing with price sitting 43.5 dollars from the target band.
8 October the day: 4114.5 to 4132.0 (+17.5 dollars), range 42.9
At the close 4121.7 to 4126.5 (+4.8 dollars), range 40.7
Released during this session:
- EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- US Initial Jobless Claims — 197K against a forecast of 200K (below forecast), previous 199K
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — 3.6% against a forecast of 3.7% (below forecast), previous 3.7%
- US Fed Musalem Speech
The downward bounce forecast issued on 7 October remained standing at the close, with price sitting 46.3 dollars above the target at 4086.8.
During the session, US Initial Jobless Claims printed at 197K against a 200K forecast, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow reading came in at 3.6% compared to the expected 3.7%. Speeches by Fed officials Waller and Musalem were also scheduled during the day alongside the publication of the ECB monetary policy meeting accounts.
Before the American session 4133.3 to 4121.7 (-11.6 dollars), range 25.8
Released during this session:
- US Fed Waller Speech
The downward bounce forecast issued on 7 October remained standing at the close of the window, with price sitting 34.9 dollars above the 4086.8 target.
During the session, a speech by Fed Waller was scheduled at 08:30 UTC. Looking ahead to the American session, US Initial Jobless Claims are scheduled for 12:30 UTC with a forecast of 200K.
Due in the next session:
- EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 200K, previous 199K
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — forecast 3.7%, previous 3.7%
Before the European session 4100.8 to 4133.2 (+32.4 dollars), range 42.9
A downward forecast issued at 13:00 UTC on 7 October remained standing at the close. Price was trading inside the zone between 4123.5 and 4138.2, with the close sitting 46.4 dollars away from the 4086.8 target on a bounce leg.
Fed Waller is scheduled to speak at 08:30 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Waller Speech
7 October the day: 4166.4 to 4110.6 (-55.8 dollars), range 104.4
At the close 4116.7 to 4100.8 (-15.9 dollars), range 61.2
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 7.49%, previous 7.3%
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -3.186M against a forecast of 1.7M (below forecast), previous 0.922M
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 0.382M against a forecast of -1.7M (above forecast), previous -1.684M
- US FOMC Minutes
Two downside bounce forecasts issued earlier in the week reached their target targets at 04:00 UTC and 05:00 UTC. A new downside bounce forecast was issued at 13:00 UTC with a zone from 4123.5 to 4138.2 and a target of 4086.8. At the close, it had not resolved, with price sitting 14.0 dollars from the target band.
During the session, the FOMC Minutes were scheduled at 18:00 UTC, though no reading was published.
Before the American session 4135.0 to 4116.7 (-18.3 dollars), range 30.4
Resolved here: the forecast issued 2 October at 16:00 reached its invalidation level, 4127.2, at 05:00 UTC.
A downside forecast issued on 2 October resolved at the start of the session, reaching its target on a bounce leg.
A fresh downside forecast was issued at 10:00 UTC, also on a bounce leg, with a target at 4119.4 dollars. At 11:00 UTC, that forecast had not resolved, with price standing 2.7 dollars short of the target.
Due in the next session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast 1.7M, previous 0.922M
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -1.7M, previous -1.684M
Before the European session 4169.2 to 4134.9 (-34.3 dollars), range 35.5
Resolved here: the forecast issued 5 October at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 4133.1, at 04:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -2.09M, previous 1.019M
- US Fed Logan Speech
At the close of the session, a downward forecast issued on 5 October remained unresolved, with price finishing 1.8 dollars above the 4133.1 target band on a bounce leg.
Overnight price action brought XAU/USD down to a close at 4134.9, near the low of a 35.5 dollar range. Among scheduled events, API Crude Oil Stock Change was reported at -2.09M, and Fed Logan spoke during the session.
6 October the day: 4142.4 to 4164.3 (+21.9 dollars), range 80.3
At the close 4158.2 to 4169.2 (+11.0 dollars), range 40.8
Released during this session:
- US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 23.75K, previous 20K
- US Exports — 315.2B, previous 310.7B
- US Balance of Trade — -105.6B against a forecast of -102B (below forecast), previous -92.8B
- US Imports — 420.8B, previous 403.6B
- US Fed Williams Speech
- US Fed Bowman Speech
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.7% (in line with forecast), previous 3.7%
- US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
- US Fed Schmid Speech
At the close, a downward forecast for a bounce leg issued on 5 October at 21:00 UTC was still standing. The forecast sets a zone between 4172.7 and 4189.7 targeting 4133.1, with price finishing 36.1 dollars from the target band.
Earlier in the day, EU Retail Sales MoM printed at 0.1% against a forecast of 0.2%. During the US session, the US Balance of Trade came in at -105.6B against a forecast of -102B, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow reading matched its 3.7% forecast.
Due in the next session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change
- US Fed Logan Speech
Before the American session 4121.3 to 4158.2 (+36.9 dollars), range 47.4
Released during this session:
- EU Retail Sales MoM — 0.1% against a forecast of 0.2% (below forecast), previous -0.6%
At 11:00 UTC, the downward bounce forecast issued on 5 October was still standing, with price 25.1 dollars from the 4133.1 target.
During the session, EU Retail Sales MoM arrived at 0.1% against a forecast of 0.2%. Looking ahead to the US session, US Balance of Trade figures are expected at -102B, alongside weekly ADP Employment Change data and scheduled speeches from Fed officials Williams and Bowman.
Due in the next session:
- US ADP Employment Change Weekly
- US Exports
- US Balance of Trade — forecast -102B, previous -92.8B
- US Imports
- US Fed Williams Speech
- US Fed Bowman Speech
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — forecast 3.7%, previous 3.7%
- US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
Before the European session 4140.6 to 4121.3 (-19.3 dollars), range 48.3
A downward forecast with a bounce leg was issued at 21:00 UTC on 5 October. At the close of the session, it had not resolved and stood 11.8 dollars from the target.
Later in the morning, EU retail sales figures are scheduled for release at 09:00 UTC, with an expected reading of 0.2%.
Due in the next session:
- EU Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.2%, previous -0.6%
5 October the day: 4140.0 to 4139.3 (-0.7 dollars), range 47.1
At the close 4161.7 to 4140.7 (-21.0 dollars), range 45.4
Released during this session:
- US ISM Services PMI — 54.9 against a forecast of 55 (below forecast), previous 55.4
The US ISM Services PMI print landed at 14:00 UTC at 54.9 against a forecast of 55.
A down-trend bounce forecast issued on 2 October targeting 4127.2 remained standing at 20:00 UTC, with the session close sitting 13.5 dollars from the target level.
Before the American session 4131.1 to 4161.6 (+30.5 dollars), range 40.2
Ahead of the American session, the US ISM Services PMI is scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC, with a forecast of 55 against the previous reading of 55.4.
During the morning, price spanned a range of 40.2 dollars. The downward forecast issued on 2 October remained unresolved at 11:00 UTC, with a bounce leg targeting 4127.2 and the close sitting 34.4 dollars above that level.
Due in the next session:
- US ISM Services PMI — forecast 55, previous 55.4
How the week stands so far
| Forecasts that ended this week | 9 |
|---|---|
| Reached the level they named | 2 |
| Ended without reaching it | 7 |
| Issued this week | 9 |
| Still standing | 1 |
Earlier weeks
- 28 September to 4 October 2026 — 18 forecasts ended, 4 at the level they named
How far a XAU/USD pullback can go and still resume
The trend pulls back. Does it carry on, or has it turned? Measured on 5,419 XAU/USD pullbacks since 2005 on hourly bars — 3,162 used to build the curve and 2,257 more it had never seen. Depth is measured against the swing that came before it, so a half is a pullback that has given back half the move.
| Pullback depth | Resumed |
|---|---|
| 25% of the move given back | 72% |
| 35% of the move given back | 64% |
| 50% of the move given back | 51% |
| 60% of the move given back | 41% |
| 70% of the move given back | 33% |
| 85% of the move given back | 18% |
| 100% of the move given back | 0% |
The halfway point for XAU/USD is 51%: a pullback that has given back that much went on to a new extreme about half the time, so it is the depth at which this market stops being a trend that is resting and starts being a coin toss. Out of sample the curve landed 2.3 points from where it was built.
What this cannot tell you
It gives no date and no time.
If the question is really "will XAU/USD reach this price", that is a different measurement and it has its own page: how often XAU/USD reaches a level once it is set, by distance and within 4, 8, 24 or 48 hours.
Descriptive only, and not investment advice. Turnmarks publishes what has happened after past setups; nobody here knows what price will do next, and a page that told you otherwise would be selling you something.
The method, the calibration and the same question across 15 markets: the pullback study. Or every past marker on XAU/USD and what followed it.
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