XAU/USD forecast
The forecast standing on XAU/USD now
The channel stopped falling, price closed clear of the trailing band, and from here the rule expects a pull-back into the bifurcation zone and then one of two levels. It gives no date and no time.
Of every forecast this rule has made on XAU/USD and that has since resolved, price came back into the zone first in 68% of them. In the other 32% it reached the new extreme without pulling back into the zone at all.
Rebuilt before each session — 23:00, 06:00 and 12:00 UTC.
This week so far, 24 to 30 August 2026
27 August the day: 4594.36 to 4585.62 (-8.7 dollars), range 73.6
Before the American session 4618.31 to 4589.85 (-28.5 dollars), range 52.5
The downward forecast issued on 2026-08-26 at 18:00 UTC remained standing at 11:00 UTC. At the close of the window, price sat 40.0 dollars above the 4549.9 continuation target and 91.5 dollars below the 4681.4 invalidation level.
Ahead of the US session, Initial Jobless Claims are scheduled for 12:30 UTC with an expectation of 208K, alongside the Goods Trade Balance, forecasted at -99B, and Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv, projected at 0.1%.
Due in the next session:
- EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv
- US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 208K, previous 206K
- US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — forecast 0.1%, previous 0.2%
- US Goods Trade Balance Adv — forecast -99B, previous -101.4B
26 August the day: 4655.73 to 4589.97 (-65.8 dollars), range 90.8
At the close 4620.10 to 4594.31 (-25.8 dollars), range 50.5
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.78%, previous 6.77%
- US PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous -0.1%
- US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.6% (below forecast), previous 1.1%
- US GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 3.6%
- US PCE Price Index YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.7%
- US Corporate Profits QoQ Prel — 8.2%, previous 0.5%
- US Personal Spending MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
- US Personal Income MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
- US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est — 1.5% against a forecast of 1.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.1%
- US Durable Goods Orders MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
- US Core PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.2% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -2.536M against a forecast of -0.7M (below forecast), previous 0.688M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 0.095M against a forecast of 0.6M (below forecast), previous 4.405M
- US Fed Barkin Speech
A 50.5-dollar session range pushed XAUUSD lower toward the lower end of its daily span, covering 2.81 times its average hourly volatility.
At the 20:00 UTC close, the upward forecast issued on 24 August remained active. The session ended at 4594.3 dollars, leaving the price 101.4 dollars below the 4695.7 continuation target and 54.5 dollars above the 4539.8 invalidation level.
A batch of major US economic releases arrived at 12:30 UTC, including Personal Spending, Personal Income, Core PCE, and the second estimate for quarterly GDP Growth Rate.
Due in the next session:
- US Jackson Hole Symposium
25 August the day: 4650.39 to 4656.62 (+6.2 dollars), range 91.8
Before the European session 4651.45 to 4625.66 (-25.8 dollars), range 79.8
Price traversed a 79.8-dollar range across the window, equivalent to 3.54 times the hourly average true range, with the high reaching 4696.6 dollars.
At the close of the session, the upward forecast issued at 05:00 UTC on 24 August had not resolved. The price sat 70.0 dollars short of the 4695.7 continuation target and 85.9 dollars above the 4539.8 invalidation level.
24 August the day: 4617.27 to 4651.41 (+34.1 dollars), range 86.6
At the close 4643.10 to 4651.47 (+8.4 dollars), range 55.8
Released during this session:
- US Chicago Fed National Activity Index — -0.08, previous 0.06
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent Speech
Treasury Secretary Bessent spoke at 18:00 UTC during a session that spanned 55.8 dollars, equivalent to 2.53 times the average hourly range. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index landed earlier at 12:30 UTC.
The upward forecast issued at 05:00 UTC had not resolved by the 20:00 UTC close. At the end of the window, price sat 44.2 dollars below the continuation target of 4695.7 and 111.7 dollars above the invalidation level at 4539.8.
Before the American session 4638.70 to 4643.10 (+4.4 dollars), range 31.0
An upward forecast issued at 05:00 UTC was still standing at the close of the session. It had not resolved by 11:00 UTC, leaving XAU/USD 52.6 dollars away from the 4695.7 continuation target and 103.3 dollars above the 4539.8 invalidation level.
During the six-hour window, price reached a high of 4659.7 within a 31.1 dollar span before settling at 4643.1.
Due in the next session:
- US Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Before the European session 4617.27 to 4638.56 (+21.3 dollars), range 62.8
Resolved here: the forecast issued 21 August at 14:00 reached its continuation level, 4636.74, at 02:00 UTC.
The upward forecast issued on 21 August resolved during the session as price reached its continuation target. Trading spanned a 62.8 dollar range, reaching 2.85 times the hourly average true range.
How the week stands so far
| Forecasts that ended this week | 1 |
|---|---|
| Reached the continuation level | 1 |
| Ended against the call | 0 |
| Issued this week | 1 |
| Still standing | 1 |
Over the whole record on XAU/USD, the continuation level came first in 67% of 446 forecasts. This week is 1 decisions, not a sample.
Earlier weeks
- 17 to 23 August 2026 — 5 forecasts ended, 2 at the continuation level, 3 against the call
- 10 to 16 August 2026 — 2 forecasts ended, 1 at the continuation level, 1 against the call
How far a XAU/USD pullback can go and still resume
The trend pulls back. Does it carry on, or has it turned? Measured on 5,419 XAU/USD pullbacks since 2005 on hourly bars — 3,162 used to build the curve and 2,257 more it had never seen. Depth is measured against the swing that came before it, so a half is a pullback that has given back half the move.
| Pullback depth | Resumed |
|---|---|
| 25% of the move given back | 72% |
| 35% of the move given back | 64% |
| 50% of the move given back | 51% |
| 60% of the move given back | 41% |
| 70% of the move given back | 33% |
| 85% of the move given back | 18% |
| 100% of the move given back | 0% |
The halfway point for XAU/USD is 51%: a pullback that has given back that much went on to a new extreme about half the time, so it is the depth at which this market stops being a trend that is resting and starts being a coin toss. Out of sample the curve landed 2.3 points from where it was built.
What this cannot tell you
It gives no date and no time.
If the question is really "will XAU/USD reach this price", that is a different measurement and it has its own page: how often XAU/USD reaches a level once it is set, by distance and within 4, 8, 24 or 48 hours.
Descriptive only, and not investment advice. Turnmarks publishes what has happened after past setups; nobody here knows what price will do next, and a page that told you otherwise would be selling you something.
The method, the calibration and the same question across 15 markets: the pullback study. Or every past marker on XAU/USD and what followed it.
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