BTC/USD forecast review, 10 to 16 August 2026
The last forecast of the week
Issued 2026-08-13 19:00 UTC, downward, from a corridor between 63643.93 and 63938.79. It continues at 62158.90 and is invalidated at 64532.09.
It reached the invalidation level, 64532.09, at 2026-08-18 14:00 UTC — after this week had closed.
Forecasts on this market have taken a median of 31 hours to reach one of their two levels, over the 39 that have resolved.
Session by session
16 August the day: 63082.10 to 62826.40 (-255.7 dollars), range 650.9
Nothing was worth reporting from this session.
15 August the day: 62795.80 to 63082.80 (+287.0 dollars), range 439.5
Nothing was worth reporting from this session.
14 August the day: 63409.00 to 62857.30 (-551.7 dollars), range 1143.1
At the close 62716.40 to 62872.60 (+156.2 dollars), range 735.4
Released during this session:
- US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — -0.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (below forecast), previous -0.2%
- US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — -0.4% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.4%
- US Retail Sales MoM — -0.6% against a forecast of 0.1% (below forecast), previous 0.2%
- US Fed Venable Speech
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — 51 against a forecast of 54.5 (below forecast), previous 55.2
- US Business Inventories MoM — 0% against a forecast of 0.1% (below forecast), previous 0.4%
A live downward forecast issued on 13 August from the 63643.9–63938.8 corridor remains active. Its continuation target sits at 62158.9 with invalidation at 64532.1; at the session close, price was 713.7 points above the continuation target and 1659.5 points below the invalidation level.
During the window, US Retail Sales MoM landed at 12:30 UTC, followed by preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 14:00 UTC.
What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 64532.09 on 18 August at 14:00 UTC.
13 August the day: 63400.80 to 63372.20 (-28.6 dollars), range 1189.8
At the close 63571.80 to 63339.00 (-232.8 dollars), range 1180.4
Resolved here: the forecast issued 5 August at 23:00 reached its invalidation level, 63279.95, at 16:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
- US Core PPI MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.4%
- US Initial Jobless Claims — 209K against a forecast of 202K (above forecast), previous 200K
- US PPI MoM — 0% against a forecast of 0.2% (below forecast), previous -0.1%
- US Fed Barkin Speech
An upward forecast issued on 5 August reached its invalidation level of 63279.9 at 16:00 UTC.
US PPI MoM was released at 12:30 UTC, alongside Core PPI MoM and Initial Jobless Claims. Fed speeches from Hammack at 12:15 UTC and Barkin at 12:40 UTC also landed during the session.
A new downward forecast was issued at 19:00 UTC from a zone between 63643.9 and 63938.8. The track sets a continuation target at 62158.9 and an invalidation level at 64532.1. At the close, the quote finished 1180.1 dollars from the continuation target and 1193.1 dollars from the invalidation level.
12 August the day: 63600.60 to 63400.50 (-200.1 dollars), range 1190.2
At the close 64082.30 to 63355.90 (-726.4 dollars), range 1190.2
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.77%, previous 6.81%
- US CPI s.a — 332.81, previous 332.57
- US CPI — 333.92 against a forecast of 333.99 (below forecast), previous 333.95
- US Core Inflation Rate MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.2% (in line with forecast), previous 0%
- US Inflation Rate YoY — 3.4% against a forecast of 3.4% (in line with forecast), previous 3.5%
- US Inflation Rate MoM — 0.1% against a forecast of 0.1% (in line with forecast), previous -0.4%
- US Core Inflation Rate YoY — 2.5% against a forecast of 2.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.6%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -0.968M against a forecast of -1.2M (above forecast), previous -1.643M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 17.422M against a forecast of -1.4M (above forecast), previous 2.479M
- US Monthly Budget Statement — -432B against a forecast of -346B (below forecast), previous -120B
A cluster of major US economic releases landed at 12:30 UTC, including Core Inflation Rate MoM, Core Inflation Rate YoY, Inflation Rate MoM, and Inflation Rate YoY. Across the session, market movement covered a range of 1190.2 dollars, measuring 4.59 times the hourly average true range.
An active upward forecast issued on 2026-08-05 from the 63838.2 to 64153.9 zone continues to stand, setting a continuation target at 65513.1 and an invalidation level at 63279.9. At the close of 63355.9, price rests 76.0 dollars above the invalidation threshold and 2157.2 dollars away from the continuation target.
11 August the day: 63901.80 to 63573.40 (-328.4 dollars), range 1300.6
At the close 64177.40 to 63474.40 (-703.0 dollars), range 1300.6
Released during this session:
- US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 8.25K, previous 11K
- US Existing Home Sales — 4.06M against a forecast of 4.05M (above forecast), previous 4.13M
- US Existing Home Sales MoM — -1.7%, previous -1.4%
An upward forecast issued on 5 August from the 63838.2–64153.9 corridor remains live. The session close left BTCUSD 194.5 dollars above its invalidation target of 63279.9 and 2038.7 dollars below its continuation target of 65513.1.
In scheduled releases, US Existing Home Sales and Existing Home Sales MoM landed at 14:00 UTC, following the US ADP Employment Change Weekly print at 12:15 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast -0.5M, previous 2.69M
10 August the day: 65117.80 to 63915.60 (-1202.2 dollars), range 1685.0
Nothing was worth reporting from this session.
How the week ended
How the week ended
| Forecasts that ended this week | 1 |
|---|---|
| Reached the continuation level | 0 |
| Ended against the call | 1 |
| Issued this week | 1 |
| Still standing on Sunday | 1 |
| Week open to close | 65117.80 to 62826.40 (-2291.4 dollars) |
| Week range | 62440.20 to 65408.90 (2968.7 dollars) |
Over the whole record on Bitcoin, the continuation level came first in 68% of 472 forecasts. This week is 1 decisions, not a sample.
The week
For BTC/USD, 1 forecast settled during the week of 10 to 16 August 2026. Reaching the invalidation level accounted for 1 of these outcomes, while 0 reached the continuation level. Over a historical sample of 1186 completed forecasts, the continuation level was reached first 64% of the time. During the week, 1 new forecast was issued, leaving 1 forecast active at the close of Sunday.
BTC/USD opened the week at 65117.8 and closed at 62826.4, moving through a range of 2968.7 dollars between a high of 65408.9 and a low of 62440.2. The total change across the week was a decrease of 2291.4 dollars.
Economic updates during the week included US Existing Home Sales, Inflation Rate MoM and YoY, Core Inflation Rate MoM and YoY, PPI MoM, Retail Sales MoM, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel. A forecast issued on 13 August at 19:00 UTC projects a down trend, establishing a zone between 63643.9 and 63938.8 with a continuation level at 62158.9 and an invalidation level at 64532.1.
Every forecast that ended this week
| Issued | Direction | Corridor | Continuation | Invalidation | Reached | Ended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 23:00 | up | 63838.23 - 64153.89 | 65513.08 | 63279.95 | invalidation | 2026-08-13 16:00 |
On the calendar this week
- 10 August, 19:00 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 11 August, 12:15 UTC - US ADP Employment Change Weekly
- 11 August, 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales
- 11 August, 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales MoM
- 11 August, 20:30 UTC - US API Crude Oil Stock Change
- 12 August, 11:00 UTC - US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 12 August, 12:30 UTC - US CPI s.a
- 12 August, 12:30 UTC - US CPI
- 12 August, 12:30 UTC - US Core Inflation Rate MoM
- 12 August, 12:30 UTC - US Inflation Rate YoY
- 12 August, 12:30 UTC - US Inflation Rate MoM
- 12 August, 12:30 UTC - US Core Inflation Rate YoY
- 12 August, 14:30 UTC - US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
- 12 August, 14:30 UTC - US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- 12 August, 18:00 UTC - US Monthly Budget Statement
- 13 August, 09:00 UTC - EU Industrial Production MoM
- 13 August, 12:15 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 13 August, 12:30 UTC - US Core PPI MoM
- 13 August, 12:30 UTC - US Initial Jobless Claims
- 13 August, 12:30 UTC - US PPI MoM
- 13 August, 12:40 UTC - US Fed Barkin Speech
- 14 August, 09:00 UTC - EU Employment Change QoQ Prel
- 14 August, 09:00 UTC - EU Employment Change YoY Prel
- 14 August, 09:00 UTC - EU Balance of Trade
- 14 August, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
- 14 August, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales Control Group MoM
- 14 August, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales MoM
- 14 August, 13:00 UTC - US Fed Venable Speech
- 14 August, 14:00 UTC - US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel
- 14 August, 14:00 UTC - US Business Inventories MoM