BTC/USD forecast
The forecast standing on BTC/USD now
The channel stopped rising, price closed clear of the trailing band, and from here the rule expects a pull-back into the bifurcation zone and then one of two levels. It gives no date and no time.
Of every forecast this rule has made on BTC/USD and that has since resolved, price came back into the zone first in 69% of them. In the other 31% it reached the new extreme without pulling back into the zone at all.
Rebuilt before each session — 23:00, 06:00 and 12:00 UTC.
This week so far, 24 to 30 August 2026
27 August the day: 78679.80 to 79266.10 (+586.3 dollars), range 2000.8
Before the American session 78762.50 to 79586.90 (+824.4 dollars), range 1967.4
The bullish forecast issued on 21 August remained standing at the end of the session, with price closing 1261.1 dollars short of the 80848.0 target and 4279.3 dollars above the 75307.6 invalidation level.
Ahead in the upcoming session, US economic releases include Initial Jobless Claims alongside preliminary trade and inventory data.
Due in the next session:
- EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv
- US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 208K, previous 206K
- US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — forecast 0.1%, previous 0.2%
- US Goods Trade Balance Adv — forecast -99B, previous -101.4B
26 August the day: 78494.80 to 78678.80 (+184.0 dollars), range 1637.5
At the close 78704.00 to 78424.10 (-279.9 dollars), range 1170.4
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.78%, previous 6.77%
- US PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous -0.1%
- US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.6% (below forecast), previous 1.1%
- US GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 3.6%
- US PCE Price Index YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.7%
- US Corporate Profits QoQ Prel — 8.2%, previous 0.5%
- US Personal Spending MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
- US Personal Income MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
- US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est — 1.5% against a forecast of 1.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.1%
- US Durable Goods Orders MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
- US Core PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.2% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -2.536M against a forecast of -0.7M (below forecast), previous 0.688M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 0.095M against a forecast of 0.6M (below forecast), previous 4.405M
- US Fed Barkin Speech
The session brought a 1170.4-dollar range, spanning more than two hourly ATRs. A series of major US economic data prints landed at 12:30 UTC—including GDP Growth Rate, Personal Spending, Personal Income, Durable Goods Orders, and the Core PCE Price Index—followed by a speech from Fed official Barkin at 15:45 UTC.
At the close at 20:00 UTC, the upward forecast issued on 21 August had not resolved. BTC/USD finished 2423.9 dollars below the 80848.0 continuation target and 3116.5 dollars above the 75307.6 invalidation level.
Due in the next session:
- US Jackson Hole Symposium
25 August the day: 78910.80 to 78517.30 (-393.5 dollars), range 3438.6
Before the European session 78735.40 to 80307.30 (+1571.9 dollars), range 2751.0
The session covered a range of 2751.0 dollars, equivalent to 3.75 times the hourly ATR.
At the close, the bullish forecast issued on 21 August sitting in the 76692.7–77541.1 zone was 540.7 dollars away from its continuation target at 80848.0 and 4999.7 dollars above its invalidation level at 75307.6.
24 August the day: 77829.20 to 78952.40 (+1123.2 dollars), range 3361.7
At the close 77603.30 to 78735.90 (+1132.6 dollars), range 2592.8
Released during this session:
- US Chicago Fed National Activity Index — -0.08, previous 0.06
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent Speech
The session expanded across a range of 2592.8 dollars, reaching a high of 79988.0. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index landed at 12:30 UTC, followed by a speech from US Treasury Secretary Bessent at 18:00 UTC.
At the 20:00 UTC close, the upward forecast issued on 21 August 2026 was still standing. The period ended with the price 2112.1 dollars below the 80848.0 continuation target and 3428.3 dollars above the 75307.6 invalidation level.
Before the American session 76889.80 to 77597.60 (+707.8 dollars), range 1204.8
The session spanned a range of 1204.8 dollars, equal to 2.27 times the hourly ATR.
An upward forecast issued on 21 August from the 76692.7–77541.1 corridor was still standing at 11:00 UTC. At the close, price sat 3250.4 dollars below the continuation target at 80848.0 and 2290.0 dollars above the invalidation level at 75307.6.
Due in the next session:
- US Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Before the European session 77322.50 to 76893.10 (-429.4 dollars), range 1406.2
The session spanned a 1406.2 dollar range, covering 2.71 average true ranges.
At the close of the window, an upward forecast issued on 21 August at 11:00 UTC was still standing. The price finished 3954.9 dollars below the 80848.0 bullish target and 1585.5 dollars above the 75307.6 invalidation level.
How the week stands so far
| Forecasts that ended this week | 0 |
|---|---|
| Reached the continuation level | 0 |
| Ended against the call | 0 |
| Issued this week | 0 |
| Still standing | 0 |
Over the whole record on BTC/USD, the continuation level came first in 68% of 472 forecasts. This week is 0 decisions, not a sample.
Earlier weeks
- 17 to 23 August 2026 — 5 forecasts ended, 4 at the continuation level, 1 against the call
- 10 to 16 August 2026 — 1 forecast ended, 0 at the continuation level, 1 against the call
How far a BTC/USD pullback can go and still resume
The trend pulls back. Does it carry on, or has it turned? Measured on 2,534 BTC/USD pullbacks since 2012 on hourly bars — 1,885 used to build the curve and 649 more it had never seen. Depth is measured against the swing that came before it, so a half is a pullback that has given back half the move.
| Pullback depth | Resumed |
|---|---|
| 25% of the move given back | 71% |
| 35% of the move given back | 64% |
| 50% of the move given back | 50% |
| 60% of the move given back | 43% |
| 70% of the move given back | 32% |
| 85% of the move given back | 15% |
| 100% of the move given back | 0% |
The halfway point for BTC/USD is 50%: a pullback that has given back that much went on to a new extreme about half the time, so it is the depth at which this market stops being a trend that is resting and starts being a coin toss. Out of sample the curve landed 1.7 points from where it was built.
What this cannot tell you
It gives no date and no time.
If the question is really "will BTC/USD reach this price", that is a different measurement and it has its own page: how often BTC/USD reaches a level once it is set, by distance and within 4, 8, 24 or 48 hours.
Descriptive only, and not investment advice. Turnmarks publishes what has happened after past setups; nobody here knows what price will do next, and a page that told you otherwise would be selling you something.
The method, the calibration and the same question across 15 markets: the pullback study. Or every past marker on BTC/USD and what followed it.
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