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EUR/USD forecast review, 17 to 23 August 2026

The last forecast of the week

Euro / US dollar hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-08-21

Issued 2026-08-21 17:00 UTC, downward, from a corridor between 1.16949 and 1.17058. It continues at 1.16501 and is invalidated at 1.17244.

It reached the continuation level, 1.16501, at 2026-08-26 14:00 UTC — after this week had closed.

Forecasts on this market have taken a median of 38 hours to reach one of their two levels, over the 23 that have resolved.

Session by session

23 August the day: 1.16724 to 1.16764 (+4.0 pips), range 5.4

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.

21 August the day: 1.16756 to 1.16784 (+2.8 pips), range 42.8

At the close 1.17020 to 1.16786 (-23.4 pips), range 41.1

Released during this session:

European Negotiated Wage Growth printed at 2.44%, down from 2.56% previously, while the EU Consumer Confidence Flash landed at -15.5 against a forecast -16.3. S&P Global Flash PMI releases scheduled across both the European and US sessions carried no published readings.

What followed: that forecast reached its continuation level of 1.16501 on 26 August at 14:00 UTC.

Before the European session 1.16779 to 1.16931 (+15.2 pips), range 25.4

The upcoming European session brings flash S&P Global PMI surveys at 08:00 UTC, with expectations set at 51.8 for manufacturing, 51.5 for services, and 51.7 for the composite index. At 09:00 UTC, the European Union is scheduled to release its negotiated wage growth figures.

Due in the next session:

20 August the day: 1.16754 to 1.16757 (+0.3 pips), range 41.3

Before the American session 1.16728 to 1.16969 (+24.1 pips), range 40.5

Resolved here: the forecast issued 19 August at 17:00 reached its continuation level, 1.16974, at 08:00 UTC.

An upward forecast issued prior to the session was withdrawn at 07:00 UTC after EUR/USD set a new extreme before reaching its entry corridor. No forecast was active at the close of the window.

Ahead in the American session, US Initial Jobless Claims (forecast 210K) and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (forecast 25) are both scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

19 August the day: 1.15742 to 1.16756 (+101.4 pips), range 109.0

At the close 1.16065 to 1.16771 (+70.6 pips), range 79.8

Resolved here: the forecast issued 17 August at 11:00 reached its continuation level, 1.16302, at 12:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

A downward forecast issued on 18 August was withdrawn at 08:00 UTC following a trend flip. At the close of the session, no live forecast remained on the board.

Earlier in the day, ECB President Lagarde spoke at 07:10 UTC. During the US session, the FOMC Minutes were scheduled at 18:00 UTC with no reading available. US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change printed at 4.405M against a forecast of -0.6M, while Gasoline Stocks Change showed 0.688M against an expected -1.2M. The MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate was reported at 6.77%.

18 August the day: 1.15775 to 1.15733 (-4.2 pips), range 21.7

At the close 1.15761 to 1.15746 (-1.5 pips), range 17.9

Released during this session:

US housing data presented a mixed picture at 12:30 UTC, as Housing Starts fell to 1.239M against the 1.35M forecast, while preliminary Building Permits reached 1.443M, above the expected 1.37M. Earlier in the European session, the EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index came in at 31.4, beating the 25.4 forecast.

Due in the next session:

17 August the day: 1.15633 to 1.15769 (+13.6 pips), range 50.8

At the close 1.15903 to 1.15788 (-11.5 pips), range 28.8

Released during this session:

An upward forecast issued on 2 August reached its continuation target at 06:00 UTC. Later in the day, a subsequent upward forecast issued at 11:00 UTC was withdrawn at 18:00 UTC following a trend flip.

During the session, the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index printed at 20.6 against a forecast of 11. The US NAHB Housing Market Index landed at 35 against an expected 33.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 1.15847 to 1.15904 (+5.7 pips), range 31.6

Resolved here: the forecast issued 14 August at 17:00 reached its continuation level, 1.16005, at 07:00 UTC.

An upward forecast issued on 2 August resolved early in the window, reaching its continuation target at 06:00 UTC after 247 bars.

Looking ahead to the American session, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC with a forecast of 11, followed by the NAHB Housing Market Index at 14:00 UTC with a forecast of 33.

Due in the next session:

How the week ended

How the week ended

Forecasts that ended this week3
Reached the continuation level3
Ended against the call0
Issued this week3
Still standing on Sunday1
Week open to close1.15633 to 1.16764 (+113.1 pips)
Week range1.15633 to 1.17115 (148.2 pips)

Over the whole record on Euro / US dollar, the continuation level came first in 69% of 440 forecasts. This week is 3 decisions, not a sample.

The week

During the week of 17 to 23 August 2026, a total of 6 forecasts settled for EUR/USD. Of these settled forecasts, 1 reached the continuation level, 0 reached the invalidation level, and 5 were withdrawn. The system issued 6 forecasts during the week, with 0 remaining open at the end of Sunday.

EUR/USD opened at 1.1563 and closed at 1.1676 over the course of the week, reflecting a total change of 113.0 pips. The price range spanned 148.0 pips, reaching a low of 1.1563 and a high of 1.1711.

Across the historical tracking record of 1912 resolved forecasts for EUR/USD, the continuation level came first in 58% of instances.

Every forecast that ended this week

IssuedDirectionCorridorContinuationInvalidationReachedEnded
2026-08-19 17:00up1.16365 - 1.164701.169741.16161continuation2026-08-20 08:00
2026-08-17 11:00up1.15819 - 1.159011.163021.15659continuation2026-08-19 12:00
2026-08-14 17:00up1.15552 - 1.156371.160051.15402continuation2026-08-17 07:00

On the calendar this week

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