EUR/USD forecast review, 24 to 30 August 2026

30 August the day: 1.1576 to 1.1578 (+2.0 pips), range 4.0

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.

28 August the day: 1.1650 to 1.1583 (-67.0 pips), range 81.0

At the close 1.1649 to 1.1586 (-63.0 pips), range 81.0

Resolved here: the forecast issued 26 August at 17:00 reached its continuation level, 1.1629, at 14:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 13:45 UTC US Chicago PMI — 47.1 against a forecast of 58.3 (below forecast), previous 57.6
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final — 51.7 against a forecast of 51 (above forecast), previous 55.2
• 14:00 UTC US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
• 14:00 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prel — -79K, previous -911K
• 16:30 UTC US Fed Goolsbee Speech

A downward forecast issued on 26 August resolved during the session as price reached its continuation level.

Among major US events, the preliminary Non Farm Payrolls annual revision printed at -79K against a previous -911K, while Fed Chair Warsh delivered a speech. Chicago PMI landed at 47.1 compared to a 58.3 forecast, and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was 51.7 against a expected 51.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

Before the American session 1.1645 to 1.1649 (+4.0 pips), range 10.0

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Economic Sentiment — 98.4 against a forecast of 97.5 (above forecast), previous 97.1

Two major US events are scheduled for 14:00 UTC, with Fed Chair Warsh scheduled to speak alongside the preliminary Non Farm Payrolls annual revision print. Earlier in the session, EU Economic Sentiment landed at 98.4 against a 97.5 forecast.

At the 11:00 UTC close, the downward forecast issued on 26 August at 17:00 UTC was still standing. Price finished the session 21.0 pips above the 1.1629 continuation level and 31.0 pips below the 1.1681 invalidation mark.

Due in the next session:

• 13:45 UTC US Chicago PMI — forecast 58.3, previous 57.6
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final — forecast 51, previous 55.2
• 14:00 UTC US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
• 14:00 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prel
• 16:30 UTC US Fed Goolsbee Speech

Before the European session 1.1649 to 1.1645 (-4.0 pips), range 10.0

Released during this session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

The downward forecast issued on 26 August was still standing at 05:00 UTC, positioned 21.0 pips from its continuation target at 1.1629 and 31.0 pips from invalidation at 1.1681.

During the window, the Jackson Hole Symposium was scheduled at 00:00 UTC with no reading available. European Economic Sentiment is due later at 09:00 UTC, with an expected figure of 97.5.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Economic Sentiment — forecast 97.5, previous 97.1

27 August the day: 1.1652 to 1.1650 (-2.0 pips), range 24.0

At the close 1.1640 to 1.1649 (+9.0 pips), range 24.0

Released during this session:

• 11:30 UTC EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv — 0.7%, previous -0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 203K against a forecast of 208K (below forecast), previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — 1.3% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Goods Trade Balance Adv — -118.8B against a forecast of -99B (below forecast), previous -101.41B

At the 20:00 UTC close, the downward forecast issued on 26 August remained standing, with price sitting 21.0 pips from the 1.1629 continuation target and 31.0 pips from the 1.1681 invalidation level.

A batch of US economic indicators landed at 12:30 UTC. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 203K against a 208K forecast, while Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv printed at 1.3% compared to the forecasted 0.1%. The Goods Trade Balance deficit reached -118.8B against an expected -99B, and Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv printed at 0.7%. Earlier at 11:30 UTC, the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts were published, though no reading is available.

Looking ahead, the Jackson Hole Symposium is scheduled for 00:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

Before the American session 1.1655 to 1.1640 (-15.0 pips), range 20.0

vertical The session ahead carries the ECB monetary policy meeting accounts at 11:30 UTC, followed by several US economic data releases at 12:30 UTC. Among these, initial jobless claims are expected at 208K, while the advance goods trade balance is forecast at -99B and wholesale inventories are expected at 0.1%.

Due in the next session:

• 11:30 UTC EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 208K, previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — forecast 0.1%, previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Goods Trade Balance Adv — forecast -99B, previous -101.41B

26 August the day: 1.1670 to 1.1652 (-18.0 pips), range 35.0

At the close 1.1662 to 1.1653 (-9.0 pips), range 33.0

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.78%, previous 6.77%
• 12:30 UTC US PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous -0.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.6% (below forecast), previous 1.1%
• 12:30 UTC US GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 3.6%
• 12:30 UTC US PCE Price Index YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.7%
• 12:30 UTC US Corporate Profits QoQ Prel — 8.2%, previous 0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Personal Spending MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Personal Income MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est — 1.5% against a forecast of 1.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods Orders MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Core PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.2% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -2.536M against a forecast of -0.7M (below forecast), previous 0.688M
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 0.095M against a forecast of 0.6M (below forecast), previous 4.405M
• 15:45 UTC US Fed Barkin Speech

An upward forecast issued on 25 August was withdrawn at 14:00 UTC due to a trend flip. A batch of US economic data landed at 12:30 UTC, where Personal Income MoM came in at 0.4% against a 0.2% forecast, Personal Spending MoM reached 0.2% compared to the expected 0.1%, and Durable Goods Orders MoM printed at 1.1% against a 0.5% forecast. Core PCE Price Index MoM matched expectations at 0.2%, and the second estimate for GDP Growth Rate QoQ matched the 1.5% forecast.

At the close, a downward forecast issued at 17:00 UTC was standing. Price finished 24.0 pips above its continuation target of 1.1629 and 28.0 pips below its invalidation level of 1.1681. Ahead on the calendar, the US Jackson Hole Symposium is scheduled for 27 August.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

25 August the day: 1.1662 to 1.1671 (+9.0 pips), range 29.0

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.

24 August the day: 1.1676 to 1.1662 (-14.0 pips), range 32.0

At the close 1.1664 to 1.1661 (-3.0 pips), range 20.0

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Chicago Fed National Activity Index — -0.08, previous 0.06
• 17:00 UTC US Treasury Secretary Bessent Speech

Two downward forecasts were withdrawn during the day after price formed a new extreme before reaching their entry corridors. The call issued on 21 August was removed at 08:00 UTC, while the forecast issued at 10:00 UTC was withdrawn at 18:00 UTC. By the session close, no forecast was standing.

On the economic calendar, the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index landed at -0.08, following a previous reading of 0.06. Treasury Secretary Bessent also spoke during the session, for which no numerical reading is available.