EUR/USD forecast review, 31 August to 6 September 2026
The last forecast of the week
Issued 2026-09-04 21:00 UTC, downward, from a zone between 1.1582 and 1.1591. The next level is 1.1591.
It reached its level, 1.1591, at 2026-09-11 10:00 UTC — after this week had closed.
Readings on this market have taken a median of 28 hours to reach the level they named, over the 92 that have.
Session by session
6 September the day: 1.1609 to 1.1606 (-3.0 pips), range 8.0
Nothing was worth reporting from this session.
4 September the day: 1.1625 to 1.1611 (-14.0 pips), range 48.0
At the close 1.1621 to 1.1614 (-7.0 pips), range 42.0
Resolved here: the forecast issued 3 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1589, at 12:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US Non Farm Payrolls — 162K against a forecast of 56K (above forecast), previous 21K
- US Unemployment Rate — 4.1% against a forecast of 4.1% (in line with forecast), previous 4.1%
- US Average Hourly Earnings MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.3% (in line with forecast), previous 0.2%
- US Average Hourly Earnings YoY — 3.1% against a forecast of 3% (above forecast), previous 3.2%
- US Participation Rate — 61.6%, previous 61.4%
An upward forecast standing from the previous day was withdrawn following a trend flip, counting against the rule's record.
The US Non Farm Payrolls print came in at 162K against the 56K forecast, while the US Unemployment Rate matched expectations at 4.1%. Earlier in the day, EU Retail Sales MoM printed at -0.6% against an expected 0.3% expansion.
At the close, no forecast was standing.
Before the American session 1.1626 to 1.1621 (-5.0 pips), range 14.0
Released during this session:
- EU Retail Sales MoM — -0.6% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.2%
Major US labor market data lies immediately ahead, with Non Farm Payrolls, expected at 56K, and the Unemployment Rate, expected at 4.1%, both scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. Earlier in the session, European Retail Sales MoM printed at -0.6%, below the forecasted 0.3%.
No forecasts resolved during the window. At 11:00 UTC, the upward forecast issued at 19:00 UTC on 3 September was still standing.
Due in the next session:
- US Non Farm Payrolls — forecast 56K, previous 21K
- US Unemployment Rate — forecast 4.1%, previous 4.1%
- US Average Hourly Earnings MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%
- US Average Hourly Earnings YoY — forecast 3%, previous 3.2%
- US Participation Rate
Before the European session 1.1629 to 1.1626 (-3.0 pips), range 13.0
An upward forecast issued at 19:00 UTC on September 3 remained live heading into the European session. At 05:00 UTC, price stood 29.0 pips below the 1.1659 continuation target and 42.0 pips above the 1.1588 invalidation level.
EU Retail Sales MoM figures are scheduled for release later in the morning at 09:00 UTC, with a forecast of 0.3%.
Due in the next session:
- EU Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%
3 September the day: 1.1587 to 1.1625 (+38.0 pips), range 58.0
At the close 1.1604 to 1.1629 (+25.0 pips), range 39.0
Resolved here: the forecast issued 28 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1627, at 12:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US Initial Jobless Claims — 206K against a forecast of 205K (above forecast), previous 204K
- US Exports — 310.7B, previous 314.7B
- US Imports — 399.3B, previous 388.5B
- US Balance of Trade — -88.6B against a forecast of -90B (above forecast), previous -71.2B
- US Fed Waller Speech
- US ISM Services PMI — 55.4 against a forecast of 54.3 (above forecast), previous 54.1
- US Fed Hammack Speech
The bullish forecast issued on 2 September resolved at 12:00 UTC as price reached the 1.1625 target level. At the close, no active forecast remained standing.
During the session, US ISM Services PMI printed at 55.4, above the expected 54.3 reading. US Initial Jobless Claims came in at 206K against a 205K forecast, and the US trade deficit recorded -88.6B compared to the expected -90B. Speeches by Federal Reserve officials Waller and Hammack were also scheduled within the window.
What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 1.1570 on 11 September at 12:00 UTC.
Before the American session 1.1596 to 1.1604 (+8.0 pips), range 22.0
Resolved here: the forecast issued 2 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1613, at 07:00 UTC.
Major US economic data is scheduled for the upcoming session, led by the major ISM Services PMI release at 14:00 UTC, with a forecast of 54.3 following the previous 54.1 reading.
The bullish forecast issued on 2 September at 16:00 UTC was still standing at 11:00 UTC. At the end of the window, price sat 25.0 pips below the 1.1625 continuation target and 40.0 pips above the 1.1560 invalidation level.
Due in the next session:
- US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 205K, previous 204K
- US Exports
- US Imports
- US Balance of Trade — forecast -90B, previous -71.2B
- US Fed Waller Speech
- US ISM Services PMI — forecast 54.3, previous 54.1
What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 1.1580 on 11 September at 12:00 UTC.
2 September the day: 1.1591 to 1.1587 (-4.0 pips), range 43.0
At the close 1.1572 to 1.1587 (+15.0 pips), range 38.0
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.79%, previous 6.78%
- US ADP Employment Change — 38K against a forecast of 47K (below forecast), previous 46K
- US Factory Orders MoM — 0.9% against a forecast of 0.6% (above forecast), previous -0.2%
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -4.45M against a forecast of -1.1M (below forecast), previous 0.095M
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -1.173M against a forecast of -1.9M (above forecast), previous -2.536M
Earlier in the day, the downward forecast issued on 1 September reached its continuation target. A subsequent downward call issued at 10:00 UTC broke through its invalidation level during the afternoon session.
US economic data released in the window included ADP Employment Change arriving at 38K against a 47K forecast, while Factory Orders MoM expanded by 0.9% against an expected 0.6%.
No forecast remained standing at the close.
Before the American session 1.1576 to 1.1572 (-4.0 pips), range 19.0
The downward forecast issued on 1 September reached its continuation target early in the session, completing the move after 19 bars. No replacement forecast was active at 11:00 UTC.
Several US economic data releases are scheduled for the coming session, including ADP Employment Change, Factory Orders MoM, and crude oil inventory figures.
Due in the next session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- US ADP Employment Change — forecast 47K, previous 46K
- US Factory Orders MoM — forecast 0.6%, previous -0.2%
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast -1.1M, previous 0.095M
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -1.9M, previous -2.536M
Before the European session 1.1590 to 1.1576 (-14.0 pips), range 22.0
Resolved here: the forecast issued 19 August at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1574, at 04:00 UTC.
Resolved here: the forecast issued 1 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1584, at 00:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -2.6M against a forecast of -0.8M (below forecast), previous 4.2M
At the 05:00 UTC close, the downward forecast issued at 11:00 UTC on 1 September was still standing, with price sitting 6.0 pips above the 1.1574 continuation target and 49.0 pips below the 1.1629 invalidation level.
During the window, the US API Crude Oil Stock Change reading came in at -2.6M against a forecasted -0.8M.
1 September the day: 1.1618 to 1.1590 (-28.0 pips), range 39.0
At the close 1.1592 to 1.1590 (-2.0 pips), range 23.0
Released during this session:
- US Fed Barr Speech
- US JOLTs Job Openings — 7.271M against a forecast of 7.3M (below forecast), previous 7.182M
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI — 54.6 against a forecast of 55.2 (below forecast), previous 55.6
- US ISM Manufacturing Employment — 51.2, previous 52.8
A bullish forecast issued at 03:00 UTC was withdrawn at 08:00 UTC following a trend flip. No new calls were issued during the rest of the day, leaving the market without an active forecast at the close.
In European economic releases, the flash Inflation Rate YoY printed at 3.3%, matching expectations, while Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash came in at 2.4% against a 2.5% forecast.
Later in the US session, major releases showed US JOLTs Job Openings at 7.271M compared to the expected 7.3M, and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 54.6 against a forecast of 55.2. Fed Governor Barr also spoke during the window.
Due in the next session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast -0.8M, previous 4.2M
Before the American session 1.1606 to 1.1592 (-14.0 pips), range 22.0
Resolved here: the forecast issued 1 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1600, at 07:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash — 2.4% against a forecast of 2.5% (below forecast), previous 2.5%
- EU Inflation Rate MoM Flash — 0.4%, previous 0.2%
- EU Unemployment Rate — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 6.4%
- EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash — 3.3% against a forecast of 3.3% (in line with forecast), previous 2.9%
Major US economic releases headline the upcoming session, with JOLTs Job Openings expected at 7.3M and the ISM Manufacturing PMI forecast at 55.2, both scheduled for 14:00 UTC. A speech by Fed Governor Barr is also scheduled for 13:05 UTC.
During the European morning, Eurozone flash YoY inflation printed at 3.3%, matching expectations. Core inflation YoY flash came in at 2.4% against a 2.5% forecast, while Eurozone unemployment was reported at 6.4% against a 6.3% forecast.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Barr Speech
- US JOLTs Job Openings — forecast 7.3M, previous 7.182M
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI — forecast 55.2, previous 55.6
- US ISM Manufacturing Employment
Before the European session 1.1616 to 1.1605 (-11.0 pips), range 21.0
Resolved here: the forecast issued 31 August at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1623, at 00:00 UTC.
Resolved here: the forecast issued 31 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1623, at 00:00 UTC.
Ahead of the European open, attention turns to the flash inflation rate for the euro area due at 09:00 UTC, where a year-on-year reading of 3.3% is expected.
The bloc's core inflation rate and unemployment rate are scheduled at the same time, with forecasts sitting at 2.5% and 6.3% respectively.
Due in the next session:
- EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.5%
- EU Inflation Rate MoM Flash
- EU Unemployment Rate — forecast 6.3%, previous 6.4%
- EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash — forecast 3.3%, previous 2.9%
31 August the day: 1.1579 to 1.1618 (+39.0 pips), range 43.0
At the close 1.1597 to 1.1616 (+19.0 pips), range 29.0
Released during this session:
- US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index — 11.6, previous 1.3
The US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index landed at 14:30 UTC with a reading of 11.6, up from the previous figure of 1.3.
At the 20:00 UTC close, the downward forecast issued at 00:00 UTC from the 1.1598–1.1608 zone was still standing. The market finished the session 3.0 pips away from invalidation at 1.1623 and 60.0 pips from the continuation target at 1.1560.
Before the American session 1.1591 to 1.1597 (+6.0 pips), range 21.0
At 11:00 UTC, the downward forecast issued at 00:00 UTC was still standing, sitting 40.0 pips from the 1.1560 continuation target and 23.0 pips from the 1.1623 invalidation level.
Looking ahead to the American session, the US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is scheduled at 14:30 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
How the week ended
How the week ended
| Forecasts that ended this week | 8 |
|---|---|
| Reached the level they named | 8 |
| Issued this week | 9 |
| Still standing on Sunday | 3 |
| Week open to close | 1.1579 to 1.1606 (+27.0 pips) |
| Week range | 1.1566 to 1.1641 (75.0 pips) |
The week
During the week of 31 August to 6 September 2026, 8 forecasts for EUR/USD settled. All 8 reached their target band, while 0 ended without reaching their target. A total of 9 forecasts were issued throughout the week, leaving 3 still open at the close on Sunday.
EUR/USD opened the week at 1.1579 and closed at 1.1606, reflecting an overall change of 27.0 pips. Across the week's trading, the pair reached a high of 1.1641 and a low of 1.1566, spanning a total range of 75.0 pips.
Economic releases during the period included the EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash at 3.3% on 1 September and US Non Farm Payrolls at 162K on 4 September. On 4 September at 21:00 UTC, a forecast was issued for a down trend targeting 1.1591, with a upper edge of the zone at 1.1591 and a lower edge at 1.1582.
Every forecast that ended this week
| Issued | Direction | Corridor | Continuation | Invalidation | Reached | Ended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 21:00 | up | 1.1575 - 1.1589 | 1.1589 | reversal | 2026-09-04 12:00 | |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 | down | 1.1627 - 1.1640 | 1.1627 | reversal | 2026-09-03 12:00 | |
| 2026-09-02 06:00 | down | 1.1613 - 1.1624 | 1.1613 | reversal | 2026-09-03 07:00 | |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 | down | 1.1574 - 1.1595 | 1.1574 | pull-back | 2026-09-02 04:00 | |
| 2026-09-01 21:00 | down | 1.1575 - 1.1584 | 1.1584 | bounce | 2026-09-02 00:00 | |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 | down | 1.1592 - 1.1600 | 1.1600 | bounce | 2026-09-01 07:00 | |
| 2026-08-31 06:00 | down | 1.1623 - 1.1636 | 1.1623 | reversal | 2026-09-01 00:00 | |
| 2026-08-31 21:00 | down | 1.1623 - 1.1635 | 1.1623 | continuation | 2026-09-01 00:00 |
On the calendar this week
- 31 August, 14:30 UTC - US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
- 1 September, 09:00 UTC - EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash
- 1 September, 09:00 UTC - EU Inflation Rate MoM Flash
- 1 September, 09:00 UTC - EU Unemployment Rate
- 1 September, 09:00 UTC - EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash
- 1 September, 13:05 UTC - US Fed Barr Speech
- 1 September, 14:00 UTC - US JOLTs Job Openings
- 1 September, 14:00 UTC - US ISM Manufacturing PMI
- 1 September, 14:00 UTC - US ISM Manufacturing Employment
- 1 September, 20:50 UTC - US API Crude Oil Stock Change
- 2 September, 11:00 UTC - US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 2 September, 12:15 UTC - US ADP Employment Change
- 2 September, 14:00 UTC - US Factory Orders MoM
- 2 September, 14:30 UTC - US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- 2 September, 14:30 UTC - US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
- 3 September, 12:30 UTC - US Initial Jobless Claims
- 3 September, 12:30 UTC - US Exports
- 3 September, 12:30 UTC - US Imports
- 3 September, 12:30 UTC - US Balance of Trade
- 3 September, 12:30 UTC - US Fed Waller Speech
- 3 September, 14:00 UTC - US ISM Services PMI
- 3 September, 19:00 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 4 September, 09:00 UTC - EU Retail Sales MoM
- 4 September, 12:30 UTC - US Non Farm Payrolls
- 4 September, 12:30 UTC - US Unemployment Rate
- 4 September, 12:30 UTC - US Average Hourly Earnings MoM
- 4 September, 12:30 UTC - US Average Hourly Earnings YoY
- 4 September, 12:30 UTC - US Participation Rate