EUR/USD forecast review, 12 to 18 October 2026
The last forecast of the week
Issued 2026-10-16 04:00 UTC, upward, from a zone between 1.1154 and 1.1168. The next level is 1.1201.
It had not resolved as of 2026-10-19 04:00 UTC: price had not reached its level.
Readings on this market have taken a median of 25 hours to reach the level they named, over the 65 that have.
Session by session
18 October the day: 1.1204 to 1.1196 (-8.0 pips), range 23.0
Nothing was worth reporting from this session.
16 October the day: 1.1219 to 1.1238 (+19.0 pips), range 61.0
At the close 1.1258 to 1.1238 (-20.0 pips), range 49.0
Released during this session:
- US Import Prices MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.8% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
- US Export Prices MoM — 2.2% against a forecast of 1% (above forecast), previous 1.2%
- US Industrial Production MoM — 0.7% against a forecast of 0.4% (above forecast), previous 0.1%
- US Monthly Budget Statement — -27B against a forecast of -29B (above forecast), previous -167B
An earlier bounce forecast issued on 15 October reached its target at 1.1235 at 03:00 UTC. At the session close, a bounce forecast issued at 04:00 UTC had not resolved and sat 32.0 pips from its target band at 1.1201.
US data releases during the window included Import Prices MoM at 1.1% against a 0.8% forecast, alongside Export Prices MoM at 2.2% versus 1% expected. US Industrial Production MoM printed at 0.7% against the 0.4% forecast. Earlier in the day, EU Balance of Trade published at -16.1B.
Due in the next session:
- US Net Long-term TIC Flows — forecast 75.2B, previous -27.9B
- US Fed Goolsbee Speech
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
Before the American session 1.1237 to 1.1258 (+21.0 pips), range 49.0
Released during this session:
- EU Balance of Trade — -16.1B, previous 10.7B
EU Balance of Trade landed at -16.1B during the session, down from the previous reading of 10.7B.
An upward bounce forecast issued prior to the window at 04:00 UTC targeting 1.1201 had not resolved by the close, with price ending the session 57.0 pips from that level.
Ahead in the US session, US Import Prices MoM (forecast 0.8%) and Export Prices MoM (forecast 1%) are scheduled at 12:30 UTC, with Industrial Production MoM (forecast 0.4%) following at 13:15 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Import Prices MoM — forecast 0.8%, previous 0.5%
- US Export Prices MoM — forecast 1%, previous 1.2%
- US Industrial Production MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%
Before the European session 1.1214 to 1.1237 (+23.0 pips), range 33.0
Resolved here: the forecast issued 15 October at 03:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1235, at 03:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
- US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
An earlier upward bounce forecast resolved after its target was reached. A speech by Fed Chair Warsh was also scheduled at 03:30 UTC.
A fresh upward bounce forecast was issued at 04:00 UTC. At the close of the window, the quote sat 28.0 pips from the target band.
Looking ahead to the European session, EU Balance of Trade figures are scheduled for 09:00 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- EU Balance of Trade
15 October the day: 1.1153 to 1.1219 (+66.0 pips), range 89.0
At the close 1.1213 to 1.1214 (+1.0 pips), range 36.0
Released during this session:
- US PPI MoM — 1.3% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — 20.9 against a forecast of 28.4 (below forecast), previous 37.8
- US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — 0.1% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 1.2%
- US Core PPI MoM — 0.7% against a forecast of 0.3% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
- US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — 25.5 against a forecast of 10.3 (above forecast), previous 7.6
- US Initial Jobless Claims — 199K against a forecast of 200K (below forecast), previous 198K
- US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — 0.9% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 1.4%
- US Retail Sales MoM — 0.8% against a forecast of 0.3% (above forecast), previous 1.3%
- US Business Inventories MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.9%
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — 3.6% against a forecast of 3.6% (in line with forecast), previous 3.6%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 3.518M against a forecast of -0.5M (above forecast), previous 0.382M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -8.557M against a forecast of -0.3M (below forecast), previous -3.186M
At the 20:00 UTC close, an upward forecast issued at 03:00 UTC on a bounce leg was still standing. Price had not reached the 1.1235 target, finishing 21.0 pips short.
During the session, major US economic data landed at 12:30 UTC. US PPI MoM printed at 1.3% against a 0.5% forecast, while US Retail Sales MoM came in at 0.8% against an expected 0.3%. Earlier in the day, EU Industrial Production MoM landed at -0.5% against a forecast of 0%.
Ahead in the coming session, a major speech by Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled for 03:30 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
- US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
Before the American session 1.1215 to 1.1213 (-2.0 pips), range 29.0
Released during this session:
- EU Industrial Production MoM — -0.5% against a forecast of 0% (below forecast), previous -0.3%
Major US economic data is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC, including PPI MoM (expected at 0.5%) and Retail Sales MoM (expected at 0.3%).
Earlier in the session, European Industrial Production MoM came in at -0.5%, against a forecast of 0%.
At the close, an upward bounce forecast issued at 03:00 UTC was still standing. The target band at 1.1235 sat 22.0 pips above the current price, with the forecast having hit neither its target nor its zone boundaries during the window.
Due in the next session:
- US PPI MoM — forecast 0.5%, previous 0.5%
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — forecast 28.4, previous 37.8
- US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 1.2%
- US Core PPI MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%
- US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — forecast 10.3, previous 7.6
- US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 200K, previous 198K
- US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — forecast 0.5%, previous 1.4%
- US Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 1.3%
- US Business Inventories MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.9%
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — forecast 3.6%, previous 3.6%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -0.5M, previous 0.382M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast -0.3M, previous -3.186M
Before the European session 1.1155 to 1.1215 (+60.0 pips), range 92.0
Released during this session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -11.1M against a forecast of 1.9M (below forecast), previous -2.09M
- US Fed Bowman Speech
A downward forecast resolved early in the window as a bounce leg reached its target. A fresh upward forecast was subsequently issued at 03:00 UTC, and at the end of the session it was standing 20.0 pips short of its target zone.
Fed Bowman was scheduled to speak during the window, though no text or reading was reported. Ahead in the European session, EU Industrial Production MoM is scheduled for 09:00 UTC with a forecast of 0%.
Due in the next session:
- EU Industrial Production MoM — forecast 0%, previous -0.3%
14 October the day: 1.1196 to 1.1152 (-44.0 pips), range 98.0
At the close 1.1189 to 1.1155 (-34.0 pips), range 86.0
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 7.5%, previous 7.49%
- US CPI s.a — 336.3, previous 334.13
- US CPI — 336.94 against a forecast of 336.65 (above forecast), previous 334.98
- US Core Inflation Rate MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
- US Inflation Rate YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.4%
- US Core Inflation Rate YoY — 2.6% against a forecast of 2.5% (above forecast), previous 2.4%
- US Inflation Rate MoM — 0.6% against a forecast of 0.6% (in line with forecast), previous 0.4%
- US Fed Barkin Speech
An upward bounce forecast issued at 01:00 UTC was withdrawn at 12:00 UTC. A new downward bounce forecast was issued at 13:00 UTC targeting 1.1155 from a zone between 1.1181 and 1.1192; at the 20:00 UTC close, price had reached the 1.1155 target.
A series of US inflation metrics landed at 12:30 UTC. Headline inflation printed at 3.7% year-on-year against a 3.6% forecast, while core year-on-year inflation came in at 2.6% versus an expected 2.5%. Core month-on-month inflation printed at 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast, while headline month-on-month matched expectations at 0.6%.
Earlier in the day, prior to this session, four downward bounce forecasts issued on 7 October and 9 October ended at 00:00 UTC. Scheduled speeches by ECB President Lagarde and Fed officials during the day carried no published readings.
Due in the next session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast 1.9M, previous -2.09M
- US Fed Bowman Speech
Before the American session 1.1209 to 1.1189 (-20.0 pips), range 23.0
Released during this session:
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- US Fed Bowman Speech
Major US inflation data is scheduled for 12:30 UTC ahead of the session, with forecasts sitting at 3.6% for YoY Inflation Rate, 2.5% for Core YoY, 0.6% for MoM Inflation Rate, and 0.2% for Core MoM. Earlier in the session, ECB President Lagarde was scheduled to speak at 08:30 UTC.
At 11:00 UTC, an upward bounce forecast issued at 01:00 UTC aimed at 1.1181 was still standing, with price finishing 8.0 pips from the target.
Due in the next session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- US CPI s.a
- US CPI — forecast 336.65, previous 334.98
- US Core Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.2%, previous 0.3%
- US Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 3.6%, previous 3.4%
- US Core Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.4%
- US Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.6%, previous 0.4%
Before the European session 1.1197 to 1.1209 (+12.0 pips), range 18.0
Released during this session:
- US Fed Collins Speech
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
Four downward bounce forecasts ended at 00:00 UTC, including calls issued on 7 October targeting 1.1224 and on 9 October targeting 1.1194, 1.1192, and 1.1190. Subsequently, a new upward bounce forecast was issued at 01:00 UTC towards 1.1181. At the close of the window, this forecast was still standing, with price sitting 28.0 pips from the target.
During the window, scheduled speeches by Fed Collins and ECB President Lagarde took place.
Ahead in the upcoming session, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 08:30 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- US Fed Bowman Speech
13 October the day: 1.1158 to 1.1196 (+38.0 pips), range 51.0
Before the American session 1.1171 to 1.1185 (+14.0 pips), range 25.0
Released during this session:
- US Fed Waller Speech
US Existing Home Sales for 14:00 UTC is the main scheduled release later today, with a forecast of 3.95M. Ahead of the American slot, ADP Employment Change Weekly is due at 12:15 UTC.
Earlier in the session, a Fed speech by Governor Waller was scheduled at 07:45 UTC.
The downward forecast issued on 9 October remained active as the window closed, with price sitting 5.0 pips from the target band on a bounce leg.
Due in the next session:
- US ADP Employment Change Weekly
- US Existing Home Sales MoM
- US Existing Home Sales — forecast 3.95M, previous 3.93M
Before the European session 1.1154 to 1.1171 (+17.0 pips), range 27.0
A downward forecast issued on 9 October remained active at the end of the window, targeting 1.1190 on a bounce. At 05:00 UTC, the close sat 19 pips below that target level.
Looking ahead to the European session, a speech by Fed Governor Waller is scheduled at 07:45 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Waller Speech
12 October the day: 1.1188 to 1.1158 (-30.0 pips), range 66.0
At the close 1.1180 to 1.1154 (-26.0 pips), range 29.0
Released during this session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
Earlier in the day at 09:00 UTC, a downward bounce forecast issued at 22:00 UTC on 11 October reached its target.
During the session, a speech by Fed Hammack was scheduled at 16:50 UTC.
At the close, a downward bounce forecast issued on 9 October remained standing, with price finishing 36.0 pips from the target band.
Before the American session 1.1207 to 1.1180 (-27.0 pips), range 30.0
Resolved here: the forecast issued 11 October at 22:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1188, at 09:00 UTC.
A downward forecast resolved on a bounce leg as price reached its target band. An earlier downward forecast issued on 9 October was still standing at the 11:00 UTC close, sitting 10.0 pips from its target band.
Later in the American session, a speech by Fed Hammack is scheduled for 16:50 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
Before the European session 1.1186 to 1.1207 (+21.0 pips), range 33.0
A downward forecast issued at 22:00 UTC was standing at the close of the window, targeting 1.1188 off a bounce leg into the 1.1216–1.1228 zone. At 05:00 UTC, the market sat 19.0 pips from that target.
How the week ended
How the week ended
| Forecasts that ended this week | 8 |
|---|---|
| Reached the level they named | 2 |
| Ended without reaching it | 6 |
| Issued this week | 8 |
| Still standing on Sunday | 4 |
| Week open to close | 1.1188 to 1.1196 (+8.0 pips) |
| Week range | 1.1113 to 1.1269 (156.0 pips) |
The week
For EUR/USD, 8 forecasts ended during the week of 12 to 18 October 2026. Among those settled forecasts, 2 reached their target band and 6 ended another way. In addition, 8 new forecasts were issued throughout the week, leaving 4 still open at the end of Sunday.
Across the full week, EUR/USD opened at 1.1188 and closed at 1.1196. The pair moved within a total range of 156.0 pips, recording a high of 1.1269 and a low of 1.1113, with an overall change of 8.0 pips.
The latest forecast issued during the week projects an upward trend targeting 1.1201. Its entry zone has a lower edge of 1.1154 and an upper edge of 1.1168.
Every forecast that ended this week
| Issued | Direction | Corridor | Continuation | Invalidation | Reached | Ended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 03:00 | up | 1.1188 - 1.1201 | 1.1235 | bounce | 2026-10-16 03:00 | |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 | down | 1.1181 - 1.1192 | 1.1155 | bounce | 2026-10-14 22:00 | |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 | up | 1.1150 - 1.1159 | 1.1181 | bounce | 2026-10-14 12:00 | |
| 2026-10-07 08:00 | down | 1.1257 - 1.1270 | 1.1224 | bounce | 2026-10-14 00:00 | |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 | down | 1.1224 - 1.1236 | 1.1194 | bounce | 2026-10-14 00:00 | |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 | down | 1.1222 - 1.1234 | 1.1192 | bounce | 2026-10-14 00:00 | |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 | down | 1.1220 - 1.1231 | 1.1190 | bounce | 2026-10-14 00:00 | |
| 2026-10-11 22:00 | down | 1.1216 - 1.1228 | 1.1188 | bounce | 2026-10-12 09:00 |
On the calendar this week
- 12 October, 16:50 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 13 October, 07:45 UTC - US Fed Waller Speech
- 13 October, 12:15 UTC - US ADP Employment Change Weekly
- 13 October, 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales MoM
- 13 October, 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales
- 13 October, 17:00 UTC - US Fed Barkin Speech
- 13 October, 20:00 UTC - US Fed Collins Speech
- 14 October, 02:10 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- 14 October, 08:30 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- 14 October, 09:40 UTC - US Fed Bowman Speech
- 14 October, 11:00 UTC - US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US CPI s.a
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US CPI
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Core Inflation Rate MoM
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Inflation Rate YoY
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Core Inflation Rate YoY
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Inflation Rate MoM
- 14 October, 17:30 UTC - US Fed Barkin Speech
- 14 October, 21:00 UTC - US API Crude Oil Stock Change
- 15 October, 02:55 UTC - US Fed Bowman Speech
- 15 October, 09:00 UTC - EU Industrial Production MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US PPI MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales Control Group MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Core PPI MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Initial Jobless Claims
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales MoM
- 15 October, 14:00 UTC - US Business Inventories MoM
- 15 October, 15:30 UTC - US Atlanta Fed GDPNow
- 15 October, 16:00 UTC - US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
- 15 October, 16:00 UTC - US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- 15 October, 20:30 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 16 October, 03:30 UTC - US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
- 16 October, 09:00 UTC - EU Balance of Trade
- 16 October, 12:30 UTC - US Import Prices MoM
- 16 October, 12:30 UTC - US Export Prices MoM
- 16 October, 13:15 UTC - US Industrial Production MoM
- 16 October, 18:00 UTC - US Monthly Budget Statement
- 16 October, 20:00 UTC - US Net Long-term TIC Flows
- 16 October, 22:00 UTC - US Fed Goolsbee Speech
- 17 October, 05:00 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech