Turnmarks

EUR/USD forecast review, 2 to 8 November 2026

The last forecast of the week

Euro / US dollar hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-11-06

Issued 2026-11-06 07:00 UTC, downward, from a zone between 1.1249 and 1.1263. The next level is 1.1215.

It had not resolved as of 2026-11-09 05:00 UTC: price had not reached its level.

Readings on this market have taken a median of 22 hours to reach the level they named, over the 47 that have.

Session by session

8 November the day: 1.1138 to 1.1146 (+8.0 pips), range 13.0

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.

6 November the day: 1.1218 to 1.1138 (-80.0 pips), range 104.0

At the close 1.1173 to 1.1142 (-31.0 pips), range 45.0

Euro / US dollar hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-11-06

Released during this session:

US Non Farm Payrolls arrived at 165K against a 65K forecast at 13:30 UTC, while the Unemployment Rate landed at 4.1% compared to the 4.2% forecast. Later at 15:00 UTC, the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading came in at 51, above the 48 forecast. Earlier in the day at 10:00 UTC, EU Retail Sales MoM landed at -0.7% against the expected -0.1%.

Two upward forecasts issued on 2 November ended at 06:00 UTC prior to the session. A downward forecast issued at 07:00 UTC on a bounce leg targeting 1.1215 was still standing at the close, with price 73.0 pips from the target band.

Before the American session 1.1196 to 1.1173 (-23.0 pips), range 32.0

Released during this session:

Major US data releases are scheduled for the coming session, led by Non Farm Payrolls (forecast 65K) and the Unemployment Rate (forecast 4.2%) at 13:30 UTC, followed by preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 15:00 UTC (forecast 48.2).

During the morning session, EU Retail Sales MoM landed at -0.7% against an expected -0.1%. Fed Williams was also scheduled to speak at 09:30 UTC.

Two upward forecasts issued on 2 November ended at 06:00 UTC after dropping without reaching their targets. A fresh downward forecast was issued at 07:00 UTC targeting 1.1215 on a bounce leg; at 12:00 UTC it was still standing, 42.0 pips from the target band.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 1.1219 to 1.1196 (-23.0 pips), range 44.0

Euro / US dollar hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-11-06

Released during this session:

At 06:00 UTC, an upward bounce forecast targeting 1.1197 was still standing, with the session close landing 1.0 pip away from the target zone.

During the overnight window, Fed Logan Speech was scheduled. Looking ahead to the coming session, Fed Williams Speech is scheduled at 09:30 UTC, followed by EU Retail Sales MoM at 10:00 UTC, where a reading of -0.1% is expected.

Due in the next session:

5 November the day: 1.1229 to 1.1218 (-11.0 pips), range 65.0

At the close 1.1221 to 1.1219 (-2.0 pips), range 41.0

Released during this session:

US economic data released at 13:30 UTC showed preliminary Unit Labour Costs at -0.7% against an expected 0.6%, while preliminary Nonfarm Productivity reached 3.6% against a 2.8% forecast. Initial Jobless Claims landed at 189K compared to the forecasted 196K. Earlier in the day, no reading was available for the European Union S&P Global Construction PMI scheduled at 08:30 UTC.

At the close, the upward bounce forecast issued on 2 November remained standing, with price 22.0 pips away from its 1.1197 target.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 1.1260 to 1.1222 (-38.0 pips), range 50.0

Released during this session:

At 12:00 UTC, the upward bounce forecast issued on 2 November remained standing, with price finishing the session 25.0 pips above its target band of 1.1197.

During the morning, no reading was available for the EU S&P Global Construction PMI scheduled at 08:30 UTC.

Ahead in the US session, Initial Jobless Claims figures are scheduled for 13:30 UTC with a forecast of 195K, alongside Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labour Costs data. Speeches from Fed Hammack, Fed Barkin, and ECB President Lagarde are also scheduled later in the day.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 1.1230 to 1.1260 (+30.0 pips), range 44.0

A standing forecast for a bounce leg, issued on 2 November, remained unresolved through the overnight session. At the 06:00 UTC close, price sat 63.0 pips from the 1.1197 target band.

The S&P Global Construction PMI for the euro area is scheduled at 08:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

4 November the day: 1.1186 to 1.1229 (+43.0 pips), range 87.0

At the close 1.1254 to 1.1231 (-23.0 pips), range 60.0

Released during this session:

An upward forecast issued on 2 November at 09:00 UTC reached its target band at 1.1222 on a bounce leg earlier in the day.

In economic releases, the EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash print landed at 4%, matching the 4% forecast. During the US window, the major ISM Services PMI arrived at 54.5 against the 54.8 forecast. Routine releases showed ADP Employment Change at 86K against the 69K expected, and the US Balance of Trade at -105B against the -108B forecast.

At the close, an earlier upward forecast issued on 2 November at 08:00 UTC targeting 1.1197 on a bounce leg had not resolved, with price standing 34.0 pips from the target band.

Before the American session 1.1236 to 1.1253 (+17.0 pips), range 43.0

Released during this session:

US ISM Services PMI is scheduled for 15:00 UTC with a forecast of 54.8, following a previous reading of 54.9.

Earlier in the session, the EU flash year-on-year inflation rate landed at 4%, matching expectations. Core inflation YoY flash came in at 2.5%, also in line with forecasts.

An upward bounce forecast issued on 2 November remained standing at 12:00 UTC, with price sitting 56.0 pips from the target band at 1.1197.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 1.1192 to 1.1236 (+44.0 pips), range 79.0

Resolved here: the forecast issued 2 November at 09:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1222, at 00:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

The forecast issued on 2 November at 09:00 UTC reached its target on a bounce at 00:00 UTC. Another upward forecast issued earlier that morning at 08:00 UTC had not resolved, with price finishing the session 39.0 pips from its target.

During the overnight window, the US API Crude Oil Stock Change print landed at -5.267M against a forecast of 1.75M.

Looking ahead to the European session, major economic calendar releases include the EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash scheduled for 10:00 UTC, with forecasts ranging between 3.9% and 4% against a previous reading of 3.8%.

Due in the next session:

3 November the day: 1.1188 to 1.1186 (-2.0 pips), range 32.0

At the close 1.1181 to 1.1192 (+11.0 pips), range 26.0

Euro / US dollar hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-11-03

Released during this session:

US JOLTs Job Openings landed at 15:00 UTC at 7.523M against a 7.1M forecast, alongside US Factory Orders MoM at 1.8% against a 1.2% forecast. US Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation printed at 0.5%. US Midterm Elections were also on the day's calendar, with no reading available.

At the close, an upward bounce forecast issued on 2026-11-02 with a zone of 1.1174 to 1.1188 had not resolved, sitting 30.0 pips away from its 1.1222 target.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 1.1193 to 1.1181 (-12.0 pips), range 32.0

US JOLTs Job Openings head the calendar in the coming session at 15:00 UTC, with a forecast of 7.13M.

A bounce forecast issued on 2 November was still standing at 12:00 UTC. The call projects a move from the 1.1174–1.1188 zone towards 1.1222, with price ending the window 41.0 pips short of the target.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 1.1193 to 1.1193 (+0.0 pips), range 21.0

Released during this session:

US Midterm Elections took place during the overnight window, with no reading available for the event.

The upward bounce forecast issued at 09:00 UTC on 2 November was still standing at the 06:00 UTC close, sitting 29.0 pips from its 1.1222 target.

2 November the day: 1.1153 to 1.1188 (+35.0 pips), range 84.0

At the close 1.1207 to 1.1193 (-14.0 pips), range 39.0

Released during this session:

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI print landed at 55.5 against a 54.6 forecast at 15:00 UTC. Ahead in the early hours of the next session, US Midterm Elections are scheduled at 00:00 UTC.

At the close, the bounce forecast issued at 09:00 UTC had not resolved. Price reached a peak of 1.1229 during the session before dropping back, leaving the close 29.0 pips short of the target at 1.1222.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 1.1183 to 1.1207 (+24.0 pips), range 59.0

Major US data is scheduled ahead, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI expected at 15:00 UTC with a forecast of 54.6. Fed Goolsbee is also scheduled to speak at 16:15 UTC.

A bounce forecast issued at 09:00 UTC was still standing at 12:00 UTC, pointing upward toward a target band at 1.1222. At the end of the window, the price remained 15.0 pips away from that target.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 1.1157 to 1.1183 (+26.0 pips), range 38.0

Euro / US dollar hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-11-02

A downward continuation forecast issued on 14 September 2026 was still standing at the end of the window, with the close of 1.1183 sitting 392.0 pips from its target at 1.1575.

How the week ended

How the week ended

Forecasts that ended this week3
Reached the level they named1
Ended without reaching it2
Issued this week4
Still standing on Sunday1
Week open to close1.1153 to 1.1146 (-7.0 pips)
Week range1.1131 to 1.1273 (142.0 pips)

The week

During the week of 2 to 8 November 2026, 3 forecasts settled for EUR/USD. Of these, 1 reached its target band and 2 ended without reaching their targets. Over the course of the week, 4 forecasts were issued, and 1 remained open at the end of the week.

The market opened at 1.1153 and closed at 1.1146, recording a change of -7.0 pips. The weekly high was 1.1273 and the weekly low was 1.1131, forming a range of 142.0 pips.

Economic releases during the week included the US ISM Manufacturing PMI on 2 November at 15:00 UTC, which reported an actual value of 55.5 against a forecast of 54.5. On 4 November at 10:00 UTC, the EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash was published at an actual 4% matching its forecast of 4%. The US Non Farm Payrolls release occurred on 6 November at 13:30 UTC with an actual figure of 165K compared to the 65K forecast, while the Unemployment Rate was reported at 4.1% against a 4.2% forecast.

Every forecast that ended this week

IssuedDirectionCorridorContinuationInvalidationReachedEnded
2026-11-02 07:00up1.1139 - 1.11521.1185bounce2026-11-06 06:00
2026-11-02 08:00up1.1151 - 1.11641.1197bounce2026-11-06 06:00
2026-11-02 09:00up1.1174 - 1.11881.1222bounce2026-11-04 00:00

On the calendar this week

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