NatGas forecast review, 24 to 30 August 2026

28 August the day: 2.8974 to 2.8753 (-22.1 points), range 93.1

At the close 2.8891 to 2.8751 (-14.0 points), range 70.2

Released during this session:

• 13:45 UTC US Chicago PMI — 47.1 against a forecast of 58.3 (below forecast), previous 57.6
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final — 51.7 against a forecast of 51 (above forecast), previous 55.2
• 14:00 UTC US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
• 14:00 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prel — -79K, previous -911K
• 16:30 UTC US Fed Goolsbee Speech

US Non Farm Payrolls preliminary annual revisions printed at -79K alongside a speech from Fed Chair Warsh during the session. Chicago PMI dropped to 47.1 against a 58.3 forecast, while Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final registered at 51.7 versus an expected 51. Earlier in the day, EU Economic Sentiment crossed at 98.4, above the forecasted 97.5.

Looking ahead, the US Jackson Hole Symposium is scheduled for 00:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

Before the American session 2.9179 to 2.8864 (-31.5 points), range 43.8

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Economic Sentiment — 98.4 against a forecast of 97.5 (above forecast), previous 97.1

Major US calendar events are scheduled ahead after the morning session window. Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to speak at 14:00 UTC, alongside the preliminary annual Non Farm Payrolls revision print.

Earlier in the session, EU Economic Sentiment arrived at 98.4 against a 97.5 forecast. NatGas traded across a 44.0 point range during the six-hour window, closing near the bottom at 2.886. No forecasts were active or resolved during the window.

Due in the next session:

• 13:45 UTC US Chicago PMI — forecast 58.3, previous 57.6
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final — forecast 51, previous 55.2
• 14:00 UTC US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
• 14:00 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prel
• 16:30 UTC US Fed Goolsbee Speech

Before the European session 2.8992 to 2.9169 (+17.7 points), range 36.1

Released during this session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

daylight hours opened with the Jackson Hole Symposium scheduled overnight, though no published figures are attached to the event. Looking ahead to the European session, EU Economic Sentiment is scheduled for 09:00 UTC with an expected reading of 97.5.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Economic Sentiment — forecast 97.5, previous 97.1

27 August the day: 2.8949 to 2.8994 (+4.5 points), range 98.9

At the close 2.8899 to 2.9003 (+10.4 points), range 95.4

Resolved here: the forecast issued 27 August at 04:00 reached its continuation level, 2.9609, at 13:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 11:30 UTC EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv — 0.7%, previous -0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 203K against a forecast of 208K (below forecast), previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — 1.3% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Goods Trade Balance Adv — -118.8B against a forecast of -99B (below forecast), previous -101.41B

An earlier bullish forecast issued on 26 August was withdrawn at 02:00 UTC after setting a new extreme before reaching its entry zone. A subsequent upward call issued at 04:00 UTC reached its continuation target at 13:00 UTC.

During the session, US economic releases showed initial jobless claims at 203K against a forecast of 208K, while wholesale inventories advanced by 1.3% against an expected 0.1%. Looking ahead, the US Jackson Hole Symposium is scheduled on the calendar.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

Before the American session 2.9163 to 2.8884 (-27.9 points), range 41.7

US economic data is scheduled ahead of the American session opening, with US Initial Jobless Claims expected at 208K alongside trade balance and inventory figures at 12:30 UTC.

Natural Gas moved through a 41.7-point range during the morning window, sliding down from the open to finish near the low at 2.8884.

Due in the next session:

• 11:30 UTC EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 208K, previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — forecast 0.1%, previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Goods Trade Balance Adv — forecast -99B, previous -101.41B

26 August the day: 2.8391 to 2.8994 (+60.3 points), range 91.0

At the close 2.8763 to 2.8954 (+19.1 points), range 63.8

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.78%, previous 6.77%
• 12:30 UTC US PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous -0.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.6% (below forecast), previous 1.1%
• 12:30 UTC US GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 3.6%
• 12:30 UTC US PCE Price Index YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.7%
• 12:30 UTC US Corporate Profits QoQ Prel — 8.2%, previous 0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Personal Spending MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Personal Income MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est — 1.5% against a forecast of 1.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods Orders MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Core PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.2% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -2.536M against a forecast of -0.7M (below forecast), previous 0.688M
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 0.095M against a forecast of 0.6M (below forecast), previous 4.405M
• 15:45 UTC US Fed Barkin Speech

NatGas expanded across a 63.8-point range during the session, covering 3.01 times its hourly average true range.

A cluster of major US economic data arrived at 12:30 UTC, including US Core PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, Durable Goods Orders MoM, and the second estimate for GDP Growth Rate QoQ.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

25 August the day: 2.8003 to 2.8399 (+39.6 points), range 103.8

Before the European session 2.7639 to 2.7952 (+31.3 points), range 76.6

Price spanned a range of 76.6 points during the session, equivalent to 4.02 hourly ATRs.

At the close, the downward forecast issued on 20 August at 11:00 UTC had not resolved. The session finished 35.5 points below its invalidation level at 2.8307 and 94.6 points above its continuation target at 2.7006.

24 August the day: 2.7343 to 2.7442 (+9.9 points), range 127.8

At the close 2.7713 to 2.7664 (-4.9 points), range 76.6

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Chicago Fed National Activity Index — -0.08, previous 0.06
• 17:00 UTC US Treasury Secretary Bessent Speech

NatGas traded across a 76.6-point range during the session, equivalent to 3.66 ATR. US calendar events for the window included the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 12:30 UTC and a speech by US Treasury Secretary Bessent at 18:00 UTC.

At the 20:00 UTC close, the downward forecast issued on 2026-08-20 at 11:00 UTC had not resolved. The price touched a high of 2.8379 during the session before ending at 2.7664, which left the market 65.8 points from the continuation target of 2.7006 and 64.3 points from the 2.8307 invalidation level.