NatGas forecast
The forecast standing on NatGas now
The reading takes the nearest live zone on each side of price, where there is one. Price is expected to come back into it, turn there, and travel on to the target band beyond it. It gives no date and no time.
Rebuilt before each session — 23:00, 06:00 and 12:00 UTC.
This forecast has its own page, and every NatGas forecast is published as it is issued and again when it resolves: NatGas feed - all markets - what else you can subscribe to.
This week so far, 5 to 11 October 2026
9 October the day: 3.1271 to 3.2011 (+74.0 points), range 137.1
At the close 3.1141 to 3.2011 (+87.0 points), range 137.1
Released during this session:
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — 46.3 against a forecast of 47.6 (below forecast), previous 48.1
Two downward bounce forecasts issued on 8 October were withdrawn at 14:00 UTC. At the same hour, the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading arrived at 46.3, under the 47.6 forecast.
A new upward bounce forecast was issued at 15:00 UTC. At the close, price sat 28.3 points from its 3.2294 target.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Collins Speech
Before the European session 3.1341 to 3.1284 (-5.7 points), range 15.0
A downward forecast was issued during the window, targeting 3.1252 from a bounce zone between 3.1944 and 3.2221. At the close of the session, the price sat 3.2 points from the target and the forecast remained unresolved.
8 October the day: 3.2782 to 3.1252 (-153.0 points), range 183.2
Before the European session 3.2022 to 3.2491 (+46.9 points), range 85.2
An upward bounce forecast was issued at 21:00 UTC targeting 3.2262 from a zone between 3.1515 and 3.1686. At the close of the session, the forecast was still standing, with the price finishing 22.9 points from the target band.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Waller Speech
7 October the day: 3.1094 to 3.2091 (+99.7 points), range 140.2
At the close 3.1771 to 3.2054 (+28.3 points), range 96.2
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 7.49%, previous 7.3%
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -3.186M against a forecast of 1.7M (below forecast), previous 0.922M
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 0.382M against a forecast of -1.7M (above forecast), previous -1.684M
- US FOMC Minutes
At the close, the upward bounce forecast issued on 6 October had not resolved, with price finishing at 3.2054, sitting 88.4 points from its target band.
The session calendar featured the FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, for which no reading is available. Earlier in the US session, the EIA reported a Crude Oil Stocks Change reading of -3.186M against an expected 1.7M build, alongside Gasoline Stocks Change at 0.382M against a forecasted -1.7M draw.
Before the American session 3.1313 to 3.1762 (+44.9 points), range 49.1
A standing forecast issued on 6 October at 21:00 UTC called for an upward bounce toward 3.1170 from the 3.0463–3.0665 zone. At the close of the window, it was still standing, with price ending 59.2 points past the target band.
Looking ahead to the American session, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change data is scheduled for 14:30 UTC with an expected reading of 1.9M, alongside the EIA Gasoline Stocks Change release.
Due in the next session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast 1.7M, previous 0.922M
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -1.7M, previous -1.684M
Before the European session 3.1131 to 3.1304 (+17.3 points), range 26.3
Released during this session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -2.09M, previous 1.019M
- US Fed Logan Speech
An up-trend bounce forecast was issued at 21:00 UTC with a zone spanning 3.0463 to 3.0665 and a target at 3.1170. At the close of the session, it was still standing, with price sitting 13.4 points from the target.
During the window, the US API Crude Oil Stock Change reading was reported at -2.09M compared to the previous 1.019M. Fed Logan was also scheduled to speak at 23:00 UTC.
6 October the day: 3.0722 to 3.1121 (+39.9 points), range 71.1
At the close 3.0691 to 3.1161 (+47.0 points), range 71.1
Released during this session:
- US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 23.75K, previous 20K
- US Exports — 315.2B, previous 310.7B
- US Balance of Trade — -105.6B against a forecast of -102B (below forecast), previous -92.8B
- US Imports — 420.8B, previous 403.6B
- US Fed Williams Speech
- US Fed Bowman Speech
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.7% (in line with forecast), previous 3.7%
- US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
- US Fed Schmid Speech
The upward bounce forecast issued on 5 October remained active at the close, sitting 41.9 points from its 3.0742 target.
On the macroeconomic calendar, the US Balance of Trade registered at -105.6B against an expected -102B. Earlier in the day, EU Retail Sales MoM arrived at 0.1% against a forecast of 0.2%. No reading was available for the US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook.
Due in the next session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change
- US Fed Logan Speech
Before the European session 3.0633 to 3.0663 (+3.0 points), range 19.3
An upward bounce forecast issued at 21:00 UTC was still standing at the end of the session, targeting 3.0742 with the price sitting 7.9 points away from the target band.
Looking ahead, EU Retail Sales MoM is scheduled at 09:00 UTC, with a forecast of 0.2%.
Due in the next session:
- EU Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.2%, previous -0.6%
5 October the day: 3.0104 to 3.0742 (+63.8 points), range 82.3
Before the European session 3.0104 to 3.0191 (+8.7 points), range 45.0
An upward bounce forecast issued on 2 October at 20:00 UTC, targeting 3.0384 from a zone between 2.9656 and 2.9864, was still standing at 05:00 UTC. At the end of the window, price sat 19.3 points short of the target band.
How the week stands so far
| Forecasts that ended this week | 10 |
|---|---|
| Reached the level they named | 0 |
| Ended without reaching it | 10 |
| Issued this week | 6 |
| Still standing | 1 |
Earlier weeks
- 28 September to 4 October 2026 — 22 forecasts ended, 0 at the level they named
Why there is no pullback curve for NatGas
Every other instrument here carries one: how often the trend resumed from each depth of pullback. NatGas does not, because the study has not been run on it. That is not a verdict: nothing here has tested whether the pullback law holds on an index, and publishing a curve borrowed from currency pairs would be presenting an untested guess as a measurement.
What is above still holds: the same feed, the same markers and the same measurement as every other page here.
What this cannot tell you
It gives no date and no time.
If the question is really "will NatGas reach this price", that is a different measurement and it has its own page: how often NatGas reaches a level once it is set, by distance and within 4, 8, 24 or 48 hours.
Descriptive only, and not investment advice. Turnmarks publishes what has happened after past setups; nobody here knows what price will do next, and a page that told you otherwise would be selling you something.
The method, the calibration and the same question across 15 markets: the pullback study. Or every past marker on NatGas and what followed it.
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