NatGas forecast
The last NatGas forecast, and how it ended
This call has resolved. Price closed outside the two levels at 2026-08-27 13:00 UTC, which ends it. The rule issues the next one when the channel edge stops moving again, and until then there is no standing forecast on this market.
Of every forecast this rule has made on NatGas and that has since resolved, price came back into the zone first in 64% of them. In the other 36% it reached the new extreme without pulling back into the zone at all.
Rebuilt before each session — 23:00, 06:00 and 12:00 UTC.
This week so far, 24 to 30 August 2026
27 August the day: 2.89490 to 2.90440 (+9.5 points), range 42.0
Before the American session 2.91630 to 2.88840 (-27.9 points), range 41.7
US economic data is scheduled ahead of the American session opening, with US Initial Jobless Claims expected at 208K alongside trade balance and inventory figures at 12:30 UTC.
Natural Gas moved through a 41.7-point range during the morning window, sliding down from the open to finish near the low at 2.8884.
Due in the next session:
- EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv
- US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 208K, previous 206K
- US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — forecast 0.1%, previous 0.2%
- US Goods Trade Balance Adv — forecast -99B, previous -101.4B
26 August the day: 2.83910 to 2.89940 (+60.3 points), range 91.0
At the close 2.87630 to 2.89540 (+19.1 points), range 63.8
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.78%, previous 6.77%
- US PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous -0.1%
- US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.6% (below forecast), previous 1.1%
- US GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 3.6%
- US PCE Price Index YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.7%
- US Corporate Profits QoQ Prel — 8.2%, previous 0.5%
- US Personal Spending MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
- US Personal Income MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
- US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est — 1.5% against a forecast of 1.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.1%
- US Durable Goods Orders MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
- US Core PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.2% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -2.536M against a forecast of -0.7M (below forecast), previous 0.688M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 0.095M against a forecast of 0.6M (below forecast), previous 4.405M
- US Fed Barkin Speech
NatGas expanded across a 63.8-point range during the session, covering 3.01 times its hourly average true range.
A cluster of major US economic data arrived at 12:30 UTC, including US Core PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, Durable Goods Orders MoM, and the second estimate for GDP Growth Rate QoQ.
Due in the next session:
- US Jackson Hole Symposium
25 August the day: 2.80030 to 2.83990 (+39.6 points), range 103.8
Before the European session 2.76390 to 2.79520 (+31.3 points), range 76.6
Price spanned a range of 76.6 points during the session, equivalent to 4.02 hourly ATRs.
At the close, the downward forecast issued on 20 August at 11:00 UTC had not resolved. The session finished 35.5 points below its invalidation level at 2.8307 and 94.6 points above its continuation target at 2.7006.
What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 2.83074 on 25 August at 18:00 UTC.
24 August the day: 2.73430 to 2.74420 (+9.9 points), range 127.8
At the close 2.77130 to 2.76640 (-4.9 points), range 76.6
Released during this session:
- US Chicago Fed National Activity Index — -0.08, previous 0.06
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent Speech
NatGas traded across a 76.6-point range during the session, equivalent to 3.66 ATR. US calendar events for the window included the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 12:30 UTC and a speech by US Treasury Secretary Bessent at 18:00 UTC.
At the 20:00 UTC close, the downward forecast issued on 2026-08-20 at 11:00 UTC had not resolved. The price touched a high of 2.8379 during the session before ending at 2.7664, which left the market 65.8 points from the continuation target of 2.7006 and 64.3 points from the 2.8307 invalidation level.
How the week stands so far
| Forecasts that ended this week | 1 |
|---|---|
| Reached the continuation level | 0 |
| Ended against the call | 1 |
| Issued this week | 0 |
| Still standing | 0 |
Over the whole record on NatGas, the continuation level came first in 65% of 499 forecasts. This week is 1 decisions, not a sample.
Why there is no pullback curve for NatGas
Every other instrument here carries one: how often the trend resumed from each depth of pullback. NatGas does not, because the study has not been run on it. That is not a verdict: nothing here has tested whether the pullback law holds on an index, and publishing a curve borrowed from currency pairs would be presenting an untested guess as a measurement.
What is above still holds: the same feed, the same markers and the same measurement as every other page here.
What this cannot tell you
It gives no date and no time.
If the question is really "will NatGas reach this price", that is a different measurement and it has its own page: how often NatGas reaches a level once it is set, by distance and within 4, 8, 24 or 48 hours.
Descriptive only, and not investment advice. Turnmarks publishes what has happened after past setups; nobody here knows what price will do next, and a page that told you otherwise would be selling you something.
The method, the calibration and the same question across 15 markets: the pullback study. Or every past marker on NatGas and what followed it.
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