SPX500 forecast review, 24 to 30 August 2026

28 August the day: 7722.0 to 7708.5 (-13.5 points), range 70.5

At the close 7728.8 to 7710.7 (-18.1 points), range 70.5

Resolved here: the forecast issued 27 August at 01:00 reached its continuation level, 7749.2, at 14:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 13:45 UTC US Chicago PMI — 47.1 against a forecast of 58.3 (below forecast), previous 57.6
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final — 51.7 against a forecast of 51 (above forecast), previous 55.2
• 14:00 UTC US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
• 14:00 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prel — -79K, previous -911K
• 16:30 UTC US Fed Goolsbee Speech

An upside forecast issued on 27 August reached its continuation target.

During the session, the preliminary US Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision was released at -79K following the previous -911K reading, alongside a scheduled speech by Fed Chair Warsh. The Chicago PMI print came in at 47.1 against a forecast of 58.3, while Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final landed at 51.7 compared to the 51 forecast. A speech by Fed's Goolsbee was also scheduled at 16:30 UTC.

The calendar has the Jackson Hole Symposium scheduled for 00:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

Before the American session 7726.4 to 7728.7 (+2.3 points), range 14.3

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Economic Sentiment — 98.4 against a forecast of 97.5 (above forecast), previous 97.1

Two major US releases headline the upcoming session at 14:00 UTC, when Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to speak alongside the release of the preliminary Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision. Earlier in the schedule, the Chicago PMI is expected at 57 at 13:45 UTC, followed at 14:00 UTC by the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading, forecast at 51.

The upward forecast issued on 27 August at 01:00 UTC remained standing at the 11:00 UTC close. At the end of the window, price sat 20.5 points below the continuation target of 7749.2 and 66.6 points above the invalidation level at 7662.1. Earlier in the morning, EU Economic Sentiment crossed at 98.4 against a forecast of 97.5.

Due in the next session:

• 13:45 UTC US Chicago PMI — forecast 58.3, previous 57.6
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final — forecast 51, previous 55.2
• 14:00 UTC US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
• 14:00 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prel
• 16:30 UTC US Fed Goolsbee Speech

Before the European session 7728.4 to 7726.7 (-1.7 points), range 20.0

Released during this session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

An upward forecast issued on 27 August at 01:00 UTC remained standing at 05:00 UTC. At the end of the window, price sat 22.5 points below the continuation target of 7749.2 and 64.6 points above the invalidation level at 7662.1.

During the session, the Jackson Hole Symposium was scheduled on the US calendar. Ahead in the European session, EU Economic Sentiment is due at 09:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Economic Sentiment — forecast 97.5, previous 97.1

27 August the day: 7708.9 to 7722.5 (+13.6 points), range 52.2

At the close 7710.2 to 7728.2 (+18.0 points), range 52.2

Released during this session:

• 11:30 UTC EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv — 0.7%, previous -0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 203K against a forecast of 208K (below forecast), previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — 1.3% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Goods Trade Balance Adv — -118.8B against a forecast of -99B (below forecast), previous -101.41B

Earlier ahead of the session, the bullish forecast issued on 25 August resolved at 22:00 UTC on 26 August when price reached its continuation target. The subsequent upward forecast issued at 01:00 UTC on 27 August was still standing at the 20:00 UTC close, finishing 21.0 points from its target at 7749.2 and 66.1 points above its invalidation level at 7662.1.

In US economic releases, Initial Jobless Claims came in at 203K compared to the 208K expected figure. Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv printed at 1.3% against a 0.1% forecast, while the Goods Trade Balance Adv recorded -118.8B versus the projected -99B. Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv printed at 0.7%. Ahead on the calendar, the Jackson Hole Symposium is scheduled for 00:00 UTC on 28 August.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

Before the American session 7706.3 to 7710.4 (+4.1 points), range 27.8

At the 11:00 UTC cut-off, the downward forecast issued on 20 August remained standing. Its continuation target sat at 7631.6—78.8 points below the session close—with the invalidation level positioned at 7745.0, 34.6 points above.

Ahead of the US market open, the economic calendar includes US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, expected at 208K, alongside advance US trade balance and inventory figures for the month.

Due in the next session:

• 11:30 UTC EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 208K, previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — forecast 0.1%, previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Goods Trade Balance Adv — forecast -99B, previous -101.41B

Before the European session 7677.3 to 7706.1 (+28.8 points), range 51.5

Resolved here: the forecast issued 25 August at 12:00 reached its continuation level, 7718.3, at 22:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

The downward forecast issued on 20 August remained standing at the end of the session. The close at 7706.1 landed inside the original entry corridor of 7703.2 to 7716.6, leaving the quote 74.5 points above the continuation target at 7631.6 and 38.9 points below the invalidation level at 7745.0.

The Jackson Hole Symposium fell within the window at 00:00 UTC, during a session that spanned a 51.5-point range.

26 August the day: 7678.2 to 7687.9 (+9.7 points), range 34.1

At the close 7673.3 to 7677.6 (+4.3 points), range 34.1

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.78%, previous 6.77%
• 12:30 UTC US PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous -0.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.6% (below forecast), previous 1.1%
• 12:30 UTC US GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 3.6%
• 12:30 UTC US PCE Price Index YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.7%
• 12:30 UTC US Corporate Profits QoQ Prel — 8.2%, previous 0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Personal Spending MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Personal Income MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est — 1.5% against a forecast of 1.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods Orders MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Core PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.2% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -2.536M against a forecast of -0.7M (below forecast), previous 0.688M
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 0.095M against a forecast of 0.6M (below forecast), previous 4.405M
• 15:45 UTC US Fed Barkin Speech

A batch of US economic data at 12:30 UTC—including second estimates for quarterly GDP growth alongside Core PCE and personal spending readings—spanned a session that moved across a 34.1-point range.

At the close, a downward forecast issued on 20 August was still standing. It left the index 46.0 points away from its continuation target at 7631.6 and 67.4 points below its invalidation level at 7745.0.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

25 August the day: 7660.1 to 7677.2 (+17.1 points), range 53.5

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.

24 August the day: 7677.6 to 7654.2 (-23.4 points), range 48.3

At the close 7654.4 to 7652.7 (-1.7 points), range 31.1

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Chicago Fed National Activity Index — -0.08, previous 0.06
• 17:00 UTC US Treasury Secretary Bessent Speech

At the close of the session, the downward forecast issued on 20 August remained unresolved. SPX500 finished 21.1 points above its continuation target of 7631.6 and 92.3 points short of the invalidation level at 7745.0.

During the window, the US Treasury Secretary spoke at 18:00 UTC, following the Chicago Fed National Activity Index release earlier at 12:30 UTC. The index traded through a 31.1-point range across the session.