SPX500 turn markers
What has happened after a confirmed SPX500 marker
| Best run before the stop, median | +3.93 ATR | +43.6 points |
|---|---|---|
| Reached +1 ATR | 78% | 11.1 points |
| Reached +2 ATR | 65% | 22.2 points |
| Reached +3 ATR | 56% | 33.3 points |
Priced at this instrument's median hourly ATR over the measured period.
Measured over 184 confirmed markers between March 2023 and August 2026 — about 4 a month — on 30-minute bars from a live broker feed.
The SPX500 forecast, as a probability
ATR is the average size of an hourly bar at the time of the marker — how much this instrument was moving that day. Everything above assumes a stop on the far side of the range the marker left: the run is measured only until price comes back through it, and a target counts only if it was reached first. The best run is the median — the middle marker — not the average: a handful of runs reach twenty ATR and more, which lifts an average by half again and puts it oddly beside the reach rates under it. A median has to land where those rates cross half; an average does not. The how it works page explains the measurement in full, and what confirmed means.
SPX500 ranks 9th of 17 on typical run, sitting exactly on the median for this list. The markers are not evenly split: 66% point up, over a period in which that direction simply came up more often. It is a fact about this sample, not a bias in the rule.
Separately from the markers, and measured the same way: when SPX500 actually moves — the median fifteen-minute range at every hour of the day, which hours are dead, and where the outsized bars have clustered. And how deep a pullback goes before a trend stops resuming — measured across the other markets, not on SPX500, which the study leaves out.
How to follow SPX500
The chart is open without an account, and on the free plan it runs 8 hours behind — the price bars as well as the markers, not just the markers. A subscription removes the delay and sends a Telegram/Discord message the moment a SPX500 marker appears, if you tick it in the account page. Nothing is sent for instruments you have not chosen. The reading at the top of this page is not delayed for anyone: it is published hourly and served to everybody alike.
SPX500 forecast
There is not one on this page, and that is deliberate. Nothing here predicts where SPX500 goes next. Every figure above is a count of what has already happened — after a confirmed marker, or after a pullback of a given depth — on one broker's feed. A frequency describes a past distribution; it does not say what the next bar will do, and anyone selling you the difference is selling you something else.
What is here instead, measured rather than predicted: what a pullback in SPX500 is worth knowing about, from the markets the study does cover rather than from this one, on pullbacks; which hours it actually moves in; and how far it travels in a typical day, year by year. What you do with those is yours.
About SPX500
A contract on the S&P 500, the five-hundred-company US index quoted as SPX500.
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