SPX500 forecast
The forecast standing on SPX500 now
The channel stopped rising, price closed clear of the trailing band, and from here the rule expects a pull-back into the bifurcation zone and then one of two levels. It gives no date and no time.
Of every forecast this rule has made on SPX500 and that has since resolved, price came back into the zone first in 67% of them. In the other 33% it reached the new extreme without pulling back into the zone at all.
Rebuilt before each session — 23:00, 06:00 and 12:00 UTC.
This week so far, 24 to 30 August 2026
27 August the day: 7708.86 to 7697.88 (-11.0 points), range 34.3
Before the American session 7706.25 to 7710.38 (+4.1 points), range 27.8
At the 11:00 UTC cut-off, the downward forecast issued on 20 August remained standing. Its continuation target sat at 7631.6—78.8 points below the session close—with the invalidation level positioned at 7745.0, 34.6 points above.
Ahead of the US market open, the economic calendar includes US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, expected at 208K, alongside advance US trade balance and inventory figures for the month.
Due in the next session:
- EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv
- US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 208K, previous 206K
- US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — forecast 0.1%, previous 0.2%
- US Goods Trade Balance Adv — forecast -99B, previous -101.4B
Before the European session 7677.35 to 7706.12 (+28.8 points), range 51.6
Released during this session:
- US Jackson Hole Symposium
The downward forecast issued on 20 August remained standing at the end of the session. The close at 7706.1 landed inside the original entry corridor of 7703.2 to 7716.6, leaving the quote 74.5 points above the continuation target at 7631.6 and 38.9 points below the invalidation level at 7745.0.
The Jackson Hole Symposium fell within the window at 00:00 UTC, during a session that spanned a 51.5-point range.
26 August the day: 7678.19 to 7687.93 (+9.7 points), range 34.1
At the close 7673.30 to 7677.59 (+4.3 points), range 34.1
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.78%, previous 6.77%
- US PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous -0.1%
- US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.6% (below forecast), previous 1.1%
- US GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 3.6%
- US PCE Price Index YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.7%
- US Corporate Profits QoQ Prel — 8.2%, previous 0.5%
- US Personal Spending MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
- US Personal Income MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
- US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est — 1.5% against a forecast of 1.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.1%
- US Durable Goods Orders MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
- US Core PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.2% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -2.536M against a forecast of -0.7M (below forecast), previous 0.688M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 0.095M against a forecast of 0.6M (below forecast), previous 4.405M
- US Fed Barkin Speech
A batch of US economic data at 12:30 UTC—including second estimates for quarterly GDP growth alongside Core PCE and personal spending readings—spanned a session that moved across a 34.1-point range.
At the close, a downward forecast issued on 20 August was still standing. It left the index 46.0 points away from its continuation target at 7631.6 and 67.4 points below its invalidation level at 7745.0.
Due in the next session:
- US Jackson Hole Symposium
25 August the day: 7660.10 to 7677.18 (+17.1 points), range 53.5
Nothing was worth reporting from this session.
24 August the day: 7677.60 to 7654.15 (-23.5 points), range 48.3
At the close 7654.45 to 7652.65 (-1.8 points), range 31.2
Released during this session:
- US Chicago Fed National Activity Index — -0.08, previous 0.06
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent Speech
At the close of the session, the downward forecast issued on 20 August remained unresolved. SPX500 finished 21.1 points above its continuation target of 7631.6 and 92.3 points short of the invalidation level at 7745.0.
During the window, the US Treasury Secretary spoke at 18:00 UTC, following the Chicago Fed National Activity Index release earlier at 12:30 UTC. The index traded through a 31.1-point range across the session.
How the week stands so far
| Forecasts that ended this week | 0 |
|---|---|
| Reached the continuation level | 0 |
| Ended against the call | 0 |
| Issued this week | 0 |
| Still standing | 0 |
Over the whole record on SPX500, the continuation level came first in 64% of 472 forecasts. This week is 0 decisions, not a sample.
Why there is no pullback curve for SPX500
Every other instrument here carries one: how often the trend resumed from each depth of pullback. SPX500 does not, because the study has not been run on it. That is not a verdict: nothing here has tested whether the pullback law holds on an index, and publishing a curve borrowed from currency pairs would be presenting an untested guess as a measurement.
What is above still holds: the same feed, the same markers and the same measurement as every other page here.
What this cannot tell you
It gives no date and no time.
If the question is really "will SPX500 reach this price", that is a different measurement and it has its own page: how often SPX500 reaches a level once it is set, by distance and within 4, 8, 24 or 48 hours.
Descriptive only, and not investment advice. Turnmarks publishes what has happened after past setups; nobody here knows what price will do next, and a page that told you otherwise would be selling you something.
The method, the calibration and the same question across 15 markets: the pullback study. Or every past marker on SPX500 and what followed it.
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