SPX500 forecast
The forecast standing on SPX500 now
The reading takes the nearest live zone on each side of price, where there is one. Price is expected to come back into it, turn there, and travel on to the target band beyond it. It gives no date and no time.
Rebuilt before each session — 23:00, 06:00 and 12:00 UTC.
This forecast has its own page, and every SPX500 forecast is published as it is issued and again when it resolves: SPX500 feed - all markets - what else you can subscribe to.
This week so far, 5 to 11 October 2026
9 October the day: 7768.6 to 7816.1 (+47.5 points), range 54.3
At the close 7796.6 to 7816.1 (+19.5 points), range 44.3
Released during this session:
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — 46.3 against a forecast of 47.6 (below forecast), previous 48.1
A down-trend forecast issued on 8 October as a bounce ended at 18:00 UTC without reaching its target. Earlier in the session, the US preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment print landed at 46.3, below the forecasted 47.6.
A new up-trend forecast was issued at 19:00 UTC as a bounce. At the close, it was still standing with price 31.4 points from the target band.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Collins Speech
Before the American session 7788.2 to 7796.9 (+8.7 points), range 21.4
Preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures are scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC, carrying a forecast reading of 47.6.
A downward bounce forecast issued on 08 October at 08:00 UTC remained standing at the 11:00 UTC close. The call set a zone between 7828.1 and 7873.3 towards a target of 7797.9, with price sitting 2.8 points from that level at the end of the window.
Due in the next session:
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — forecast 47.6, previous 48.1
8 October the day: 7799.6 to 7769.9 (-29.7 points), range 75.0
At the close 7758.3 to 7756.0 (-2.3 points), range 62.4
Released during this session:
- EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- US Initial Jobless Claims — 197K against a forecast of 200K (below forecast), previous 199K
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — 3.6% against a forecast of 3.7% (below forecast), previous 3.7%
- US Fed Musalem Speech
An earlier bounce forecast issued on 7 October reached its target at 07:00 UTC. By the close, a second bounce forecast issued at 08:00 UTC was still standing, sitting 32.7 points from its target.
During the session, US Initial Jobless Claims printed at 197K against a 200K forecast, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow reading came in at 3.6% versus an expected 3.7%. Scheduled speeches by Fed officials Waller and Musalem took place earlier in the day and during the afternoon session.
Before the European session 7798.1 to 7798.1 (+0.0 points), range 13.0
A downward forecast issued at 15:00 UTC on 7 October remained standing at the close of the session, with price 27.0 points from the 7771.1 target. The call expects a bounce into the 7799.6 to 7811.0 zone before turning.
Ahead in the upcoming session, a speech by Fed's Waller is scheduled for 08:30 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Waller Speech
What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 7771.1 on 8 October at 07:00 UTC.
7 October the day: 7829.1 to 7800.0 (-29.1 points), range 68.3
At the close 7801.1 to 7798.3 (-2.8 points), range 43.3
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 7.49%, previous 7.3%
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -3.186M against a forecast of 1.7M (below forecast), previous 0.922M
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 0.382M against a forecast of -1.7M (above forecast), previous -1.684M
- US FOMC Minutes
An upward bounce forecast issued on 2 October ended at 14:00 UTC after price dropped out of the setup zone. A new downward bounce forecast was subsequently issued at 15:00 UTC targeting 7771.1; at the close, it was still standing with price sitting 27.2 points from the target.
On the macroeconomic calendar, the FOMC Minutes landed at 18:00 UTC, though no numerical reading is available. Earlier in the session, US EIA crude oil stocks contracted by 3.186M against a forecasted build of 1.7M.
Before the American session 7826.1 to 7801.4 (-24.7 points), range 29.0
At the close of the window, an upward bounce forecast issued on 2 October was still standing, with the index sitting 101.3 points away from its target band at 7700.1.
Looking ahead to the American session, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change is scheduled for 14:30 UTC with a forecast of 1.9M, following the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate print of 7.49 at 11:00 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast 1.7M, previous 0.922M
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -1.7M, previous -1.684M
Before the European session 7819.7 to 7825.9 (+6.2 points), range 12.3
Released during this session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -2.09M, previous 1.019M
- US Fed Logan Speech
An upward bounce forecast issued on 2 October with a target band at 7700.1 remained active at the end of the window, with the close sitting 125.8 points away.
During the session, US API crude oil stock change posted at -2.09M compared to a previous 1.019M, while a speech by Fed Official Logan was scheduled.
6 October the day: 7781.2 to 7821.7 (+40.5 points), range 66.3
At the close 7797.3 to 7819.3 (+22.0 points), range 47.6
Released during this session:
- US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 23.75K, previous 20K
- US Exports — 315.2B, previous 310.7B
- US Balance of Trade — -105.6B against a forecast of -102B (below forecast), previous -92.8B
- US Imports — 420.8B, previous 403.6B
- US Fed Williams Speech
- US Fed Bowman Speech
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.7% (in line with forecast), previous 3.7%
- US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
- US Fed Schmid Speech
US Balance of Trade arrived at -105.6B against a forecast of -102B, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow figure matched its 3.7% forecast. Earlier in the day, EU Retail Sales MoM showed 0.1% against a 0.2% forecast. Speeches by Fed officials Williams, Bowman, and Schmid were also scheduled during the window.
At the close, the upward bounce forecast issued on 2 October had not resolved, with the index finishing 119.2 points from the target.
Later in the evening, a speech by Fed official Logan and the API Crude Oil Stock Change release remain on the schedule.
Due in the next session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change
- US Fed Logan Speech
Before the American session 7781.8 to 7797.2 (+15.4 points), range 17.5
Released during this session:
- EU Retail Sales MoM — 0.1% against a forecast of 0.2% (below forecast), previous -0.6%
An upward bounce forecast issued on 2 October remained standing at the 11:00 UTC close, with price ending 97.1 points past the target.
During the morning window, EU retail sales showed 0.1% month-on-month growth against an expected 0.2%. Ahead of the American open, scheduled events include the US balance of trade alongside speeches from Fed officials Williams and Bowman.
Due in the next session:
- US ADP Employment Change Weekly
- US Exports
- US Balance of Trade — forecast -102B, previous -92.8B
- US Imports
- US Fed Williams Speech
- US Fed Bowman Speech
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — forecast 3.7%, previous 3.7%
- US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
Before the European session 7778.8 to 7781.9 (+3.1 points), range 11.4
A standing upward forecast calling for a bounce remained active through the window. Issued on 2 October with a target level of 7700.1, the forecast was still standing at 05:00 UTC with the index sitting 81.8 points above the target.
EU Retail Sales data is scheduled for release later in the morning at 09:00 UTC, with expectations set at 0.2%.
Due in the next session:
- EU Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.2%, previous -0.6%
5 October the day: 7729.2 to 7777.2 (+48.0 points), range 87.3
At the close 7717.9 to 7779.2 (+61.3 points), range 82.9
Resolved here: the forecast issued 17 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 7788.1, at 19:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US ISM Services PMI — 54.9 against a forecast of 55 (below forecast), previous 55.4
A reversal forecast issued in August reached its target at 19:00 UTC.
During the session, the US ISM Services PMI print landed at 14:00 UTC at 54.9 against a forecast of 55.
At the close, an upward bounce forecast issued on 2 October remained standing, sitting 79.1 points from its target band.
Before the American session 7716.2 to 7718.2 (+2.0 points), range 18.9
Major US economic data lies ahead in the coming session, with the ISM Services PMI scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC carrying a forecast of 55.
At the close of the window, an upward bounce forecast issued on 2 October was still standing, with the index finishing 18.1 points from the target band.
Due in the next session:
- US ISM Services PMI — forecast 55, previous 55.4
How the week stands so far
| Forecasts that ended this week | 4 |
|---|---|
| Reached the level they named | 2 |
| Ended without reaching it | 2 |
| Issued this week | 3 |
| Still standing | 1 |
Earlier weeks
- 28 September to 4 October 2026 — 5 forecasts ended, 1 at the level they named
Why there is no pullback curve for SPX500
Every other instrument here carries one: how often the trend resumed from each depth of pullback. SPX500 does not, because the study has not been run on it. That is not a verdict: nothing here has tested whether the pullback law holds on an index, and publishing a curve borrowed from currency pairs would be presenting an untested guess as a measurement.
What is above still holds: the same feed, the same markers and the same measurement as every other page here.
What this cannot tell you
It gives no date and no time.
If the question is really "will SPX500 reach this price", that is a different measurement and it has its own page: how often SPX500 reaches a level once it is set, by distance and within 4, 8, 24 or 48 hours.
Descriptive only, and not investment advice. Turnmarks publishes what has happened after past setups; nobody here knows what price will do next, and a page that told you otherwise would be selling you something.
The method, the calibration and the same question across 15 markets: the pullback study. Or every past marker on SPX500 and what followed it.
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