US30 forecast review, 17 to 23 August 2026
The last forecast of the week
Issued 2026-08-20 23:00 UTC, downward, from a corridor between 52962.67 and 53063.52. It continues at 52602.13 and is invalidated at 53217.32.
It reached the invalidation level, 53217.32, at 2026-08-21 18:00 UTC.
Forecasts on this market have taken a median of 42 hours to reach one of their two levels, over the 30 that have resolved.
Session by session
21 August the day: 52801.73 to 53264.97 (+463.2 points), range 582.7
At the close 52960.00 to 53272.44 (+312.4 points), range 391.3
Resolved here: the forecast issued 20 August at 23:00 reached its invalidation level, 53217.32, at 18:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US S&P Global Services PMI Flash — forecast 54
- US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — forecast 53.9
- US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
- EU Consumer Confidence Flash — -15.5 against a forecast of -16.3 (above forecast), previous -15.9
A downward forecast issued at 23:00 UTC on 20 August reached its invalidation level of 53217.3 at 18:00 UTC on 21 August.
During the window, flash US S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI releases landed at 13:45 UTC, alongside the EU flash Consumer Confidence data at 14:00 UTC.
Before the European session 52794.95 to 52809.80 (+14.9 points), range 67.4
A downward forecast was issued at 23:00 UTC from a zone between 52962.7 and 53063.5. The active target sits at 52602.1 with invalidation set at 53217.3. At the end of the window, price sits 207.7 points from the continuation level and 407.5 points from invalidation.
Ahead in the European session, EU S&P Global Flash Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs are scheduled for 08:00 UTC, followed by EU Negotiated Wage Growth at 09:00 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — forecast 51.8
- EU S&P Global Services PMI Flash — forecast 51.5
- EU S&P Global Composite PMI Flash — forecast 51.7
- EU Negotiated Wage Growth
20 August the day: 53477.30 to 52760.95 (-716.4 points), range 761.8
At the close 53401.30 to 52786.99 (-614.3 points), range 657.6
Resolved here: the forecast issued 17 August at 20:00 reached its continuation level, 53254.53, at 11:00 UTC.
Resolved here: the forecast issued 20 August at 16:00 reached its continuation level, 52816.35, at 18:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — 47.4 against a forecast of 25 (above forecast), previous 41.4
- US Initial Jobless Claims — 206K against a forecast of 210K (below forecast), previous 212K
Two downward forecasts resolved during the session. The first, issued on 17 August at 20:00 UTC, reached its continuation target of 53254.5 at 11:00 UTC. A second downward forecast, issued at 16:00 UTC from a zone between 53206.5 and 53291.4, hit its target level of 52816.3 at 18:00 UTC.
In economic releases, US Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index landed at 12:30 UTC. The market spanned a range of 657.6 points across the window before closing at 52787.0.
19 August the day: 53346.84 to 53455.30 (+108.5 points), range 441.0
At the close 53355.36 to 53473.01 (+117.7 points), range 356.9
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.77%, previous 6.77%
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 4.405M against a forecast of -0.6M (above forecast), previous 17.422M
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 0.688M against a forecast of -1.2M (above forecast), previous -0.968M
- US FOMC Minutes
The US FOMC Minutes landed at 18:00 UTC during a session that spanned a 356.9-point range. Earlier in the window, US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate data was published at 11:00 UTC, followed by the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change and EIA Gasoline Stocks Change at 14:30 UTC.
A downward forecast issued on 17 August from the 53594.0–53672.9 zone remains active. With the index closing at 53473.0, the price sits 218.5 points above the continuation target of 53254.5 and 339.4 points below the invalidation level at 53812.4.
18 August the day: 53448.32 to 53341.07 (-107.2 points), range 276.3
At the close 53459.86 to 53341.80 (-118.1 points), range 240.8
Released during this session:
- US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 9.5K, previous 8.25K
- US Housing Starts MoM — -12.4%, previous 19.7%
- US Housing Starts — 1.239M against a forecast of 1.35M (below forecast), previous 1.415M
- US Building Permits Prel — 1.443M against a forecast of 1.37M (above forecast), previous 1.374M
- US Import Prices MoM — -0.4% against a forecast of 0.1% (below forecast), previous -0.3%
- US Building Permits MoM Prel — 5%, previous -2.6%
- US Export Prices MoM — -1.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (below forecast), previous -0.7%
- US Industrial Production MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.3%
- US Pending Home Sales YoY — -2.2%, previous -0.3%
- US Pending Home Sales MoM — -2.3% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous -4.8%
A downward forecast issued at 20:00 UTC on 17 August remains active, targeting 53254.5 with invalidation set at 53812.4. At the close, the index sits 87.3 points from the continuation target and 470.6 points from the invalidation level, following a low of 53245.1 during the window.
US economic data released during the session included Housing Starts and preliminary Building Permits at 12:30 UTC, followed by Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC. The session registered a trading range of 240.7 points between 53485.8 and 53245.1.
Due in the next session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change
Before the European session 53470.60 to 53401.90 (-68.7 points), range 100.7
Released during this session:
- US Net Long-term TIC Flows — 172.7B against a forecast of 151.4B (above forecast), previous 231.2B
A downward forecast issued at 20:00 UTC remains active, originating from the 53594.0–53672.9 zone with a target of 53254.5 and an invalidation level at 53812.4. At the close of the window, price sits 147.4 points above the continuation target and 410.5 points below the invalidation level.
In scheduled economic releases, US Net Long-term TIC Flows landed at 20:00 UTC. Ahead in the European session, the EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is set for 09:00 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index — forecast 25.4, previous 23.4
17 August the day: 53716.33 to 53447.55 (-268.8 points), range 363.4
At the close 53650.88 to 53472.07 (-178.8 points), range 269.9
Resolved here: the forecast issued 13 August at 18:00 reached its continuation level, 53473.29, at 17:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — 20.6 against a forecast of 11 (above forecast), previous 15.6
- US NAHB Housing Market Index — 35 against a forecast of 33 (above forecast), previous 34
A downward forecast issued on 13 August from the 53827.6–53909.8 corridor resolved at 17:00 UTC, reaching its continuation target of 53473.3.
During the session, the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index was published at 12:30 UTC, followed by the NAHB Housing Market Index at 14:00 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Net Long-term TIC Flows — forecast 151.4B, previous 231.2B
How the week ended
How the week ended
| Forecasts that ended this week | 4 |
|---|---|
| Reached the continuation level | 3 |
| Ended against the call | 1 |
| Issued this week | 3 |
| Still standing on Sunday | 0 |
| Week open to close | 53716.33 to 53264.97 (-451.4 points) |
| Week range | 52755.93 to 53757.39 (1001.5 points) |
Over the whole record on Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30), the continuation level came first in 66% of 446 forecasts. This week is 4 decisions, not a sample.
The week
During the week of 17 to 23 August 2026, 4 forecasts reached a conclusion. Of these, 3 reached the continuation level and 1 reached the invalidation level. Across the 446 forecasts recorded for US30, the continuation level came first in 66% of them.
US30 opened the week at 53716.3 and closed at 53272.4, representing a change of -443.9 points. The market moved through a range of 1001.5 points. During this period, the US released Housing Starts, Building Permits Prel, and FOMC Minutes.
Every forecast that ended this week
| Issued | Direction | Corridor | Continuation | Invalidation | Reached | Ended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 23:00 | down | 52962.67 - 53063.52 | 52602.13 | 53217.32 | invalidation | 2026-08-21 18:00 |
| 2026-08-20 16:00 | down | 53206.54 - 53291.45 | 52816.35 | 53449.81 | continuation | 2026-08-20 18:00 |
| 2026-08-17 20:00 | down | 53593.98 - 53672.94 | 53254.53 | 53812.41 | continuation | 2026-08-20 11:00 |
| 2026-08-13 18:00 | down | 53827.61 - 53909.78 | 53473.29 | 54055.28 | continuation | 2026-08-17 17:00 |
On the calendar this week
- 17 August, 12:30 UTC - US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
- 17 August, 14:00 UTC - US NAHB Housing Market Index
- 17 August, 20:00 UTC - US Net Long-term TIC Flows
- 18 August, 09:00 UTC - EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
- 18 August, 12:15 UTC - US ADP Employment Change Weekly
- 18 August, 12:30 UTC - US Housing Starts MoM
- 18 August, 12:30 UTC - US Housing Starts
- 18 August, 12:30 UTC - US Building Permits Prel
- 18 August, 12:30 UTC - US Import Prices MoM
- 18 August, 12:30 UTC - US Building Permits MoM Prel
- 18 August, 12:30 UTC - US Export Prices MoM
- 18 August, 13:15 UTC - US Industrial Production MoM
- 18 August, 14:00 UTC - US Pending Home Sales YoY
- 18 August, 14:00 UTC - US Pending Home Sales MoM
- 18 August, 21:00 UTC - US API Crude Oil Stock Change
- 19 August, 07:10 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- 19 August, 11:00 UTC - US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 19 August, 14:30 UTC - US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- 19 August, 14:30 UTC - US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
- 19 August, 18:00 UTC - US FOMC Minutes
- 20 August, 12:30 UTC - US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
- 20 August, 12:30 UTC - US Initial Jobless Claims
- 21 August, 08:00 UTC - EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
- 21 August, 08:00 UTC - EU S&P Global Services PMI Flash
- 21 August, 08:00 UTC - EU S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
- 21 August, 09:00 UTC - EU Negotiated Wage Growth
- 21 August, 13:45 UTC - US S&P Global Services PMI Flash
- 21 August, 13:45 UTC - US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
- 21 August, 13:45 UTC - US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
- 21 August, 14:00 UTC - EU Consumer Confidence Flash