US30 forecast review, 24 to 30 August 2026

28 August the day: 53562.6 to 53533.3 (-29.3 points), range 349.0

At the close 53599.5 to 53549.2 (-50.3 points), range 349.0

Released during this session:

• 13:45 UTC US Chicago PMI — 47.1 against a forecast of 58.3 (below forecast), previous 57.6
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final — 51.7 against a forecast of 51 (above forecast), previous 55.2
• 14:00 UTC US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
• 14:00 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prel — -79K, previous -911K
• 16:30 UTC US Fed Goolsbee Speech

US Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prel printed at -79K against a previous figure of -911K, alongside scheduled remarks from Fed Chair Warsh. Earlier in the session, the Chicago PMI came in at 47.1 against a 58.3 forecast, while Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final landed at 51.7 against an expected 51.

In European trading prior to the window, EU Economic Sentiment reached 98.4 against a 97.5 forecast. The Jackson Hole Symposium was also scheduled on the US calendar.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

Before the American session 53639.0 to 53600.0 (-39.0 points), range 129.2

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Economic Sentiment — 98.4 against a forecast of 97.5 (above forecast), previous 97.1

Two major events sit ahead in the upcoming US session at 14:00 UTC: a speech by Fed Chair Warsh and the preliminary Non-Farm Payrolls annual revision. The US calendar also includes Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC, expected at 57, alongside Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final at 14:00 UTC with a forecast of 51.

During the European morning, EU Economic Sentiment published at 98.4, exceeding the 97.5 forecast.

Due in the next session:

• 13:45 UTC US Chicago PMI — forecast 58.3, previous 57.6
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final — forecast 51, previous 55.2
• 14:00 UTC US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
• 14:00 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prel
• 16:30 UTC US Fed Goolsbee Speech

Before the European session 53567.7 to 53638.6 (+70.9 points), range 157.6

Released during this session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

The Jackson Hole Symposium was on the schedule overnight, with no published reading. Ahead in the European session, EU Economic Sentiment is set for release at 09:00 UTC with an expected reading of 97.5 against a previous 96.9.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Economic Sentiment — forecast 97.5, previous 97.1

27 August the day: 53616.6 to 53558.7 (-57.9 points), range 443.6

At the close 53446.5 to 53566.3 (+119.8 points), range 397.3

Released during this session:

• 11:30 UTC EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv — 0.7%, previous -0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 203K against a forecast of 208K (below forecast), previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — 1.3% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Goods Trade Balance Adv — -118.8B against a forecast of -99B (below forecast), previous -101.41B

An bullish forecast issued at 01:00 UTC was withdrawn at 10:00 UTC due to a trend flip, before the current window opened. No further forecasts were issued or resolved during the session, and no active forecast remained standing at the close.

In US economic data published at 12:30 UTC, Initial Jobless Claims came in at 203K against a forecast of 208K, while Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv rose 1.3% compared to the 0.1% expected. The Goods Trade Balance Adv recorded -118.8B versus a forecast of -99B.

Ahead on the calendar, the Jackson Hole Symposium is scheduled for 00:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

Before the American session 53608.8 to 53445.5 (-163.3 points), range 218.9

Ahead of the American session, US economic data at 12:30 UTC includes Initial Jobless Claims, forecasted at 208K compared to the previous reading of 206K. Preliminary figures for the Goods Trade Balance, expected at -99B, and Wholesale Inventories, expected at 0.1%, are scheduled for release at the same time.

Earlier in the schedule, the European Central Bank releases its Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 11:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 11:30 UTC EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 208K, previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — forecast 0.1%, previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Goods Trade Balance Adv — forecast -99B, previous -101.41B

Before the European session 53475.7 to 53607.8 (+132.1 points), range 288.8

Released during this session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

US30 traversed a 288.8-point range across the window, spanning 3.7 times its hourly average true range. The Jackson Hole Symposium took place at 00:00 UTC during the session.

26 August the day: 53570.8 to 53604.3 (+33.5 points), range 335.4

At the close 53576.6 to 53472.8 (-103.8 points), range 335.4

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.78%, previous 6.77%
• 12:30 UTC US PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous -0.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.6% (below forecast), previous 1.1%
• 12:30 UTC US GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 3.6%
• 12:30 UTC US PCE Price Index YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.7%
• 12:30 UTC US Corporate Profits QoQ Prel — 8.2%, previous 0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Personal Spending MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Personal Income MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est — 1.5% against a forecast of 1.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods Orders MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Core PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.2% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -2.536M against a forecast of -0.7M (below forecast), previous 0.688M
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 0.095M against a forecast of 0.6M (below forecast), previous 4.405M
• 15:45 UTC US Fed Barkin Speech

US30 spanned a range of 335.4 points across the session, equivalent to 3.99 times its hourly average true range. A heavy slate of US economic data arrived at 12:30 UTC, including second estimates for quarterly GDP growth alongside Core PCE, Personal Spending, Personal Income, and Durable Goods Orders figures.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

25 August the day: 53453.5 to 53581.7 (+128.2 points), range 355.1

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.

24 August the day: 53292.3 to 53427.5 (+135.2 points), range 361.3

At the close 53188.8 to 53417.1 (+228.3 points), range 361.3

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Chicago Fed National Activity Index — -0.08, previous 0.06
• 17:00 UTC US Treasury Secretary Bessent Speech

An upward forecast issued on 23 August aimed for a target of 53496.9. During the session, price pushed to a high of 53501.1, but at the close at 20:00 UTC, the forecast had not resolved and sat 79.8 points below the continuation level.

Treasury Secretary Bessent spoke at 18:00 UTC during a session that spanned a 361.3-point range.