US30 forecast review, 31 August to 6 September 2026

4 September the day: 53666.4 to 53359.7 (-306.7 points), range 435.3

At the close 53643.7 to 53396.1 (-247.6 points), range 390.2

Resolved here: the forecast issued 4 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 53287.4, at 14:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls — 162K against a forecast of 56K (above forecast), previous 21K
• 12:30 UTC US Unemployment Rate — 4.1% against a forecast of 4.1% (in line with forecast), previous 4.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.3% (in line with forecast), previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings YoY — 3.1% against a forecast of 3% (above forecast), previous 3.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Participation Rate — 61.6%, previous 61.4%

The bullish forecast issued on 3 September was withdrawn at 16:00 UTC following a trend flip.

During the session, US Non-Farm Payrolls landed at 162K against a forecast of 56K, alongside the US Unemployment Rate which matched the 4.1% forecast. Earlier in the day, EU Retail Sales MoM recorded -0.6% compared to a forecasted 0.3%.

No forecast was active at the close.

Before the American session 53697.5 to 53642.4 (-55.1 points), range 104.3

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Retail Sales MoM — -0.6% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.2%

Major US labour data lies ahead at 12:30 UTC, with Non Farm Payrolls forecast at 56K and the Unemployment Rate expected at 4.1%.

During the session, European Retail Sales MoM landed at -0.6%, below the 0.3% forecast.

The bullish forecast issued at 18:00 UTC on 3 September remained standing at 11:00 UTC, sitting 303.0 points below its continuation target at 53945.4 and 451.6 points above the 53190.8 invalidation level.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls — forecast 56K, previous 21K
• 12:30 UTC US Unemployment Rate — forecast 4.1%, previous 4.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings YoY — forecast 3%, previous 3.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Participation Rate

Before the European session 53684.7 to 53698.0 (+13.3 points), range 53.1

An upward forecast issued at 18:00 UTC on 3 September remained active through the window. Drawn from a corridor between 53379.4 and 53494.4 with a target of 53945.4 and an invalidation level at 53190.8, it had not resolved at 05:00 UTC, leaving price 247.4 points short of the continuation target and 507.2 points above the break level.

Ahead in the session, EU Retail Sales MoM is scheduled for release at 09:00 UTC with an expected reading of 0.3%.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%

What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 53188.0 on 7 September at 04:00 UTC.

3 September the day: 53031.3 to 53679.2 (+647.9 points), range 733.7

At the close 53077.5 to 53686.2 (+608.7 points), range 684.7

Resolved here: the forecast issued 31 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 53383.4, at 12:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 1 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 53342.0, at 12:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 1 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 53242.7, at 12:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 2 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 53289.4, at 12:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 206K against a forecast of 205K (above forecast), previous 204K
• 12:30 UTC US Exports — 310.7B, previous 314.7B
• 12:30 UTC US Imports — 399.3B, previous 388.5B
• 12:30 UTC US Balance of Trade — -88.6B against a forecast of -90B (above forecast), previous -71.2B
• 12:30 UTC US Fed Waller Speech
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Services PMI — 55.4 against a forecast of 54.3 (above forecast), previous 54.1
• 19:00 UTC US Fed Hammack Speech

An upward forecast resolved during the session as US30 advanced, hitting its target shortly before the US ISM Services PMI printed above expectations at 55.4. Speeches by Fed officials Waller and Hammack were also on the schedule alongside routine trade and jobless claims data.

No active forecast was standing at the close.

Before the American session 53103.1 to 53078.0 (-25.1 points), range 191.6

Major US economic data lies ahead in the coming session, led by the ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC, where a reading of 54.3 is expected. Earlier scheduled releases at 12:30 UTC include Initial Jobless Claims alongside a speech from Fed Governor Waller.

At 11:00 UTC, the upward forecast issued at 17:00 UTC on 2 September had not resolved and remained standing. The session close left price 320.5 points beneath the 53398.5 continuation target and 381.3 points above the 52696.7 invalidation level.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 205K, previous 204K
• 12:30 UTC US Exports
• 12:30 UTC US Imports
• 12:30 UTC US Balance of Trade — forecast -90B, previous -71.2B
• 12:30 UTC US Fed Waller Speech
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Services PMI — forecast 54.3, previous 54.1

2 September the day: 52792.3 to 53093.1 (+300.8 points), range 560.7

Before the European session 52773.1 to 52758.9 (-14.2 points), range 87.1

Released during this session:

• 20:50 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -2.6M against a forecast of -0.8M (below forecast), previous 4.2M

A downward forecast issued at 22:00 UTC from an entry zone between 52948.8 and 53058.2 was still standing at the end of the window. At 05:00 UTC, price sat 262.7 points above the continuation target of 52496.2 and 486.6 points below the invalidation level at 53245.5.

Earlier in the session, the US API Crude Oil Stock Change was reported at -2.6M, compared with a forecast of -0.8M.

1 September the day: 53200.4 to 52751.6 (-448.8 points), range 601.5

Before the American session 53180.8 to 52887.4 (-293.4 points), range 438.5

Resolved here: the forecast issued 24 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 53011.6, at 08:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 25 August at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 53046.4, at 08:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash — 2.4% against a forecast of 2.5% (below forecast), previous 2.5%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate MoM Flash — 0.4%, previous 0.2%
• 09:00 UTC EU Unemployment Rate — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 6.4%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash — 3.3% against a forecast of 3.3% (in line with forecast), previous 2.9%

A downward forecast resolved to its continuation target during the morning.

In European releases, the flash EU Inflation Rate landed at 3.3%, matching expectations, while core inflation printed at 2.4% against a 2.5% forecast.

Ahead in the US session, major releases scheduled for 14:00 UTC include JOLTs Job Openings, forecast at 7.3M, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI, expected at 55.2. Fed Barr is also scheduled to speak at 13:05 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 13:05 UTC US Fed Barr Speech
• 14:00 UTC US JOLTs Job Openings — forecast 7.3M, previous 7.182M
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Manufacturing PMI — forecast 55.2, previous 55.6
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Manufacturing Employment

Before the European session 53201.3 to 53181.6 (-19.7 points), range 107.2

Ahead of the European session, major EU economic data is scheduled for 09:00 UTC, with the Flash Inflation Rate YoY expected at 3.3%.

The downward forecast issued at 17:00 UTC on 31 August remained standing at 05:00 UTC, with the index finishing 246.5 points from its target at 52935.1 and 498.2 points from the invalidation level at 53679.8.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.5%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate MoM Flash
• 09:00 UTC EU Unemployment Rate — forecast 6.3%, previous 6.4%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash — forecast 3.3%, previous 2.9%

31 August the day: 53495.9 to 53240.5 (-255.4 points), range 397.8

At the close 53480.0 to 53202.2 (-277.8 points), range 388.7

Resolved here: the forecast issued 21 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 53134.3, at 14:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 25 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 53301.3, at 13:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 27 August at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 53301.3, at 13:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 28 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 53345.9, at 12:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 31 August at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 53345.9, at 12:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 14:30 UTC US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index — 11.6, previous 1.3

A downward forecast issued at 05:00 UTC was withdrawn at 13:00 UTC after price reached a new extreme before the pull-back. No forecast was standing at the close.

The US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index landed at 14:30 UTC with a reading of 11.6, following a previous reading of 1.3.

Before the American session 53415.6 to 53481.1 (+65.5 points), range 123.6

A downward forecast issued at 05:00 UTC remained standing at the 11:00 UTC close. The call sits with its continuation target at 53206.7—274.4 points below the close—and its invalidation level at 53813.9, 332.8 points above.

Later in the session, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is scheduled for release at 14:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 14:30 UTC US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index