US30 forecast review, 12 to 18 October 2026

16 October the day: 52205.6 to 51935.4 (-270.2 points), range 748.0

At the close 52353.7 to 51982.3 (-371.4 points), range 748.0

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Import Prices MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.8% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Export Prices MoM — 2.2% against a forecast of 1% (above forecast), previous 1.2%
• 13:15 UTC US Industrial Production MoM — 0.7% against a forecast of 0.4% (above forecast), previous 0.1%
• 18:00 UTC US Monthly Budget Statement — -27B against a forecast of -29B (above forecast), previous -167B

An upward bounce forecast issued on 15 October ended at 17:00 UTC. Later in the session at 19:00 UTC, a downward bounce forecast was issued with a target of 51879.4 points; at the 20:00 UTC close, it remained standing with price sitting 0.0 points from the target band.

During the session, US Industrial Production MoM arrived at 0.7% against an expected 0.4%, while Import Prices MoM printed at 1.1% compared to the 0.8% forecast. Earlier in the day, Fed Chair Warsh spoke, for which no reading is available.

Due in the next session:

• 20:00 UTC US Net Long-term TIC Flows — forecast 75.2B, previous -27.9B
• 22:00 UTC US Fed Goolsbee Speech
• 05:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

Before the American session 52293.7 to 52351.1 (+57.4 points), range 201.1

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Balance of Trade — -16.1B, previous 10.7B

An upward bounce forecast issued on 15 October was still standing at 11:00 UTC, with the index closing 593.6 points away from its 51757.5 target.

Ahead in the US session, import prices are expected at 12:30 UTC with a forecast of 0.8%, alongside export prices forecasted at 1%. Industrial production figures follow at 13:15 UTC, expected at 0.4%.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Import Prices MoM — forecast 0.8%, previous 0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Export Prices MoM — forecast 1%, previous 1.2%
• 13:15 UTC US Industrial Production MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%

Before the European session 52184.4 to 52293.2 (+108.8 points), range 159.1

Released during this session:

• 20:30 UTC US Fed Hammack Speech
• 03:30 UTC US Fed Chair Warsh Speech

The upward bounce forecast issued on 15 October at 15:00 UTC was still standing at 05:00 UTC, with the index sitting 508.7 points from the 51757.5 target band.

Federal Reserve Chair Warsh spoke during the session at 03:30 UTC, following a speech by Fed Hammack at 20:30 UTC.

Ahead in the European session, EU Balance of Trade figures are scheduled for release at 09:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Balance of Trade

15 October the day: 51617.6 to 52196.3 (+578.7 points), range 714.7

At the close 51754.6 to 52183.4 (+428.8 points), range 587.2

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US PPI MoM — 1.3% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — 20.9 against a forecast of 28.4 (below forecast), previous 37.8
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — 0.1% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 1.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Core PPI MoM — 0.7% against a forecast of 0.3% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — 25.5 against a forecast of 10.3 (above forecast), previous 7.6
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 199K against a forecast of 200K (below forecast), previous 198K
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — 0.9% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 1.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales MoM — 0.8% against a forecast of 0.3% (above forecast), previous 1.3%
• 14:00 UTC US Business Inventories MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.9%
• 15:30 UTC US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — 3.6% against a forecast of 3.6% (in line with forecast), previous 3.6%
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 3.518M against a forecast of -0.5M (above forecast), previous 0.382M
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -8.557M against a forecast of -0.3M (below forecast), previous -3.186M

Three downside bounce forecasts ended at 14:00 UTC without reaching their target bands, with two withdrawn and one dropped. A new upward bounce forecast was issued at 15:00 UTC targeting 51757.5, and at 20:00 UTC it was still standing with 425.9 points to target.

Two major US economic releases arrived at 12:30 UTC: PPI MoM printed at 1.3% against the 0.5% forecast, and Retail Sales MoM landed at 0.8% against an expected 0.3%.

Looking ahead, Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to speak at 03:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 20:30 UTC US Fed Hammack Speech
• 03:30 UTC US Fed Chair Warsh Speech

Before the American session 51625.2 to 51762.1 (+136.9 points), range 281.5

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Industrial Production MoM — -0.5% against a forecast of 0% (below forecast), previous -0.3%

Major US economic data is scheduled ahead at 12:30 UTC, led by PPI MoM expected at 0.5% and Retail Sales MoM expected at 0.3%.

A downward bounce forecast issued on 14 October was still standing at 11:00 UTC, with the index closing 179.4 points away from its 51941.5 target.

Earlier in the session, EU Industrial Production MoM arrived at -0.5% against an expected 0%.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US PPI MoM — forecast 0.5%, previous 0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — forecast 28.4, previous 37.8
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 1.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Core PPI MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — forecast 10.3, previous 7.6
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 200K, previous 198K
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — forecast 0.5%, previous 1.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 1.3%
• 14:00 UTC US Business Inventories MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.9%
• 15:30 UTC US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — forecast 3.6%, previous 3.6%
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -0.5M, previous 0.382M
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast -0.3M, previous -3.186M

Before the European session 51622.8 to 51624.6 (+1.8 points), range 123.6

Released during this session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -11.1M against a forecast of 1.9M (below forecast), previous -2.09M
• 02:55 UTC US Fed Bowman Speech

A bounce forecast issued at 13:00 UTC on 14 October targeting 51941.5 was still standing at the close of the session, sitting 316.9 points from the target band.

During the window, the US API Crude Oil Stock Change print came in at -11.1M against a forecasted 1.9M, and Fed Bowman was scheduled to speak. Looking ahead to the European session, EU Industrial Production MoM is scheduled for 09:00 UTC with a forecast of 0%.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Industrial Production MoM — forecast 0%, previous -0.3%

14 October the day: 51667.6 to 51574.9 (-92.7 points), range 578.4

At the close 51836.1 to 51624.9 (-211.2 points), range 573.8

Resolved here: the forecast issued 13 October at 17:00 reached its invalidation level, 51640.4, at 12:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 13 October at 18:00 reached its invalidation level, 51594.3, at 12:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 7.5%, previous 7.49%
• 12:30 UTC US CPI s.a — 336.3, previous 334.13
• 12:30 UTC US CPI — 336.94 against a forecast of 336.65 (above forecast), previous 334.98
• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate YoY — 2.6% against a forecast of 2.5% (above forecast), previous 2.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate MoM — 0.6% against a forecast of 0.6% (in line with forecast), previous 0.4%
• 17:30 UTC US Fed Barkin Speech

Two downward bounce forecasts resolved during the session as their targets were reached at 12:00 UTC.

US inflation data arrived at 12:30 UTC. Core Inflation Rate MoM printed at 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast, while Inflation Rate YoY landed at 3.7% above the expected 3.6%. Core Inflation Rate YoY came in at 2.6% against a 2.5% forecast, while Inflation Rate MoM matched expectations at 0.6%.

A new downward bounce forecast issued at 13:00 UTC was still standing at the close, sitting 316.6 points short of its target band.

Due in the next session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast 1.9M, previous -2.09M
• 02:55 UTC US Fed Bowman Speech

Before the American session 51778.7 to 51835.6 (+56.9 points), range 206.6

Released during this session:

• 08:30 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
• 09:40 UTC US Fed Bowman Speech

Major US inflation releases are scheduled for 12:30 UTC ahead of the American open. Year-on-year inflation is expected at 3.6% alongside a 0.2% forecast for the monthly core reading. Earlier in the session, scheduled speeches by ECB President Lagarde and Fed Bowman took place, with no readings available.

The downward bounce forecast issued on 13 October remained standing at 11:00 UTC. At the end of the window, price sat 241.3 points above its target of 51594.3.

Due in the next session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
• 12:30 UTC US CPI s.a
• 12:30 UTC US CPI — forecast 336.65, previous 334.98
• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.2%, previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 3.6%, previous 3.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.6%, previous 0.4%

Before the European session 51682.9 to 51779.2 (+96.3 points), range 163.5

Released during this session:

• 20:00 UTC US Fed Collins Speech
• 02:10 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

Ahead in the coming session, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 08:30 UTC.

A downward bounce forecast issued at 18:00 UTC on 13 October remained standing at the close, with its target at 51594.3 sitting 184.9 points below the market.

Due in the next session:

• 08:30 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
• 09:40 UTC US Fed Bowman Speech

13 October the day: 51879.2 to 51681.3 (-197.9 points), range 776.3

Before the European session 51845.8 to 51983.7 (+137.9 points), range 163.4

The overnight session moved through a 163.4-point range, spanning 2.3 times the hourly ATR. At 05:00 UTC, an upward bounce forecast issued on 8 October was still standing, with the close sitting 1040.8 points above its 50942.9 target.

Ahead in the coming session, a speech by Fed Waller is scheduled for 07:45 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 07:45 UTC US Fed Waller Speech

12 October the day: 51717.7 to 51858.9 (+141.2 points), range 270.2

At the close 51704.1 to 51848.3 (+144.2 points), range 270.2

Released during this session:

• 16:50 UTC US Fed Hammack Speech

Fed Hammack was scheduled to speak at 16:50 UTC during the session.

At the close, an upward bounce forecast issued on 8 October remained unresolved, with the index finishing 905.4 points from its target band.

Before the American session 51854.1 to 51704.6 (-149.5 points), range 205.6

Ahead of the American session, a speech by Fed Hammack is scheduled for 16:50 UTC.

At 11:00 UTC, the bullish bounce forecast issued on 8 October remained standing, with the price sitting 761.7 points above the target band at 50942.9.

Due in the next session:

• 16:50 UTC US Fed Hammack Speech

Before the European session 51717.7 to 51853.6 (+135.9 points), range 204.5

The index moved across a 204.5-point range ahead of the European session, finishing at 51853.6.

An upward forecast issued on 8 October at 20:00 UTC calling for a bounce from the 50543.6–50657.7 zone towards 50942.9 remained active through the window. At the close, the index sat 910.7 points away from the target band and had not resolved.