WTI forecast review, 31 August to 6 September 2026

4 September the day: 91.68 to 91.19 (-49.0 cents), range 344.0

At the close 90.37 to 91.33 (+96.0 cents), range 302.0

Resolved here: the forecast issued 2 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 88.83, at 13:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 2 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 88.83, at 13:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 3 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 88.83, at 13:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 3 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 89.47, at 13:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls — 162K against a forecast of 56K (above forecast), previous 21K
• 12:30 UTC US Unemployment Rate — 4.1% against a forecast of 4.1% (in line with forecast), previous 4.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.3% (in line with forecast), previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings YoY — 3.1% against a forecast of 3% (above forecast), previous 3.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Participation Rate — 61.6%, previous 61.4%

An upward forecast issued on 3 September was withdrawn at 09:00 UTC due to a trend flip, before the session opened. No further calls were issued, and no forecast was standing at the close.

During the window, major US labor data arrived at 12:30 UTC, with Non Farm Payrolls printing at 162K against a forecast of 56K and the Unemployment Rate matching expectations at 4.1%. Earlier in the day, EU Retail Sales MoM contracted by 0.6% against a forecasted 0.3% growth.

Before the American session 91.58 to 90.38 (-120.0 cents), range 138.0

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Retail Sales MoM — -0.6% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.2%

Major US economic releases lie ahead at 12:30 UTC, with Non Farm Payrolls expected at 56K alongside the Unemployment Rate forecast at 4.1%. Earlier in the session at 09:00 UTC, EU Retail Sales MoM printed at -0.6% against an expected 0.3%.

The upward forecast issued on 2026-09-03 at 13:00 UTC remained standing at 11:00 UTC, with price sitting 78.0 cents above its invalidation target at 89.62 and 387.0 cents from its continuation level at 94.27.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls — forecast 56K, previous 21K
• 12:30 UTC US Unemployment Rate — forecast 4.1%, previous 4.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings YoY — forecast 3%, previous 3.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Participation Rate

Before the European session 91.65 to 91.58 (-7.0 cents), range 75.0

An upward forecast issued on 3 September remained active through the overnight session, sitting 267 cents below its continuation target at 94.27 and 198 cents above invalidation at 89.62 at 05:00 UTC.

Ahead in the European session, EU retail sales figures are scheduled for release at 09:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%

3 September the day: 90.62 to 91.64 (+102.0 cents), range 356.0

At the close 92.83 to 91.66 (-117.0 cents), range 221.0

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 206K against a forecast of 205K (above forecast), previous 204K
• 12:30 UTC US Exports — 310.7B, previous 314.7B
• 12:30 UTC US Imports — 399.3B, previous 388.5B
• 12:30 UTC US Balance of Trade — -88.6B against a forecast of -90B (above forecast), previous -71.2B
• 12:30 UTC US Fed Waller Speech
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Services PMI — 55.4 against a forecast of 54.3 (above forecast), previous 54.1
• 19:00 UTC US Fed Hammack Speech

The session's primary release was the US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC, which came in at 55.4 against the 54.3 forecast. Earlier in the window, US Initial Jobless Claims landed at 206K against a 205K expectation, while the US balance of trade printed at -88.6B compared to the forecasted -90B. Price action across the window traversed a 230.0 cent range, representing 2.73 times the hourly ATR.

Before the American session 90.56 to 92.84 (+228.0 cents), range 356.0

The US ISM Services PMI is scheduled for 14:00 UTC with a forecast of 54.3.

Earlier in the US session at 12:30 UTC, Initial Jobless Claims are expected at 205K alongside the Balance of Trade forecast at -90B, and a speech by Fed Waller is also scheduled.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 205K, previous 204K
• 12:30 UTC US Exports
• 12:30 UTC US Imports
• 12:30 UTC US Balance of Trade — forecast -90B, previous -71.2B
• 12:30 UTC US Fed Waller Speech
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Services PMI — forecast 54.3, previous 54.1

2 September the day: 90.61 to 90.60 (-1.0 cents), range 330.0

Before the European session 90.62 to 90.52 (-10.0 cents), range 184.0

Released during this session:

• 20:50 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -2.6M against a forecast of -0.8M (below forecast), previous 4.2M

The API Crude Oil Stock Change release landed with a drawdown of -2.6M against a forecast of -0.8M. Across the window, price moved through a range of 190.0 cents, equivalent to 2.78 times the hourly average true range.

1 September the day: 86.25 to 90.66 (+441.0 cents), range 481.0

Before the American session 86.98 to 87.78 (+80.0 cents), range 188.0

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash — 2.4% against a forecast of 2.5% (below forecast), previous 2.5%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate MoM Flash — 0.4%, previous 0.2%
• 09:00 UTC EU Unemployment Rate — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 6.4%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash — 3.3% against a forecast of 3.3% (in line with forecast), previous 2.9%

The upward forecast issued on 31 August reached its continuation target during the morning session, leaving no active calls standing at the close of the window.

Looking ahead to the US session, major releases are scheduled for 14:00 UTC, with JOLTs Job Openings expected at 7.3M and the ISM Manufacturing PMI forecast at 55.2. Fed Barr is also scheduled to speak at 13:05 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 13:05 UTC US Fed Barr Speech
• 14:00 UTC US JOLTs Job Openings — forecast 7.3M, previous 7.182M
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Manufacturing PMI — forecast 55.2, previous 55.6
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Manufacturing Employment

Before the European session 85.96 to 86.98 (+102.0 cents), range 119.0

Ahead of the European session, major calendar attention centres on the flash EU Inflation Rate YoY release at 09:00 UTC, where a reading of 3.3% is expected.

At 05:00 UTC, the upward forecast issued on 31 August was still standing. The period's close left price 86.0 cents short of its continuation target of 87.86 and 355.0 cents clear of invalidation at 83.45.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.5%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate MoM Flash
• 09:00 UTC EU Unemployment Rate — forecast 6.3%, previous 6.4%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash — forecast 3.3%, previous 2.9%

31 August the day: 84.92 to 86.27 (+135.0 cents), range 266.0

At the close 86.19 to 85.95 (-24.0 cents), range 162.0

Released during this session:

• 14:30 UTC US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index — 11.6, previous 1.3

An upward forecast issued on 26 August resolved before the session opened, reaching its continuation target on 30 August at 22:00 UTC. No further calls were issued or resolved during the window, and no live call was standing at the close.

In economic releases, the US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index landed at 11:6 at 14:30 UTC, up from the previous reading of 1.3.

Before the American session 85.33 to 86.19 (+86.0 cents), range 231.0

Resolved here: the forecast issued 24 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 86.18, at 08:00 UTC.

WTI traversed a 230.0 cent range leading into the American session.

The US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is scheduled for release at 14:30 UTC, with a previous reading of 1.3.

Due in the next session:

• 14:30 UTC US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

Before the European session 84.92 to 85.33 (+41.0 cents), range 157.0

An upward forecast resolved during the session as WTI reached its continuation target. At 05:00 UTC, no forecast remained active.