WTI forecast review, 12 to 18 October 2026
The last forecast of the week
Issued 2026-10-16 21:00 UTC, upward, from a zone between 96.65 and 97.32. The next level is 99.00.
It had not resolved as of 2026-10-19 04:00 UTC: price had not reached its level.
Readings on this market have taken a median of 28 hours to reach the level they named, over the 71 that have.
Session by session
16 October the day: 96.04 to 99.00 (+296.0 cents), range 404.0
At the close 95.91 to 98.91 (+300.0 cents), range 404.0
Resolved here: the forecast issued 15 October at 16:00 reached its invalidation level, 97.78, at 16:00 UTC.
Resolved here: the forecast issued 15 October at 17:00 reached its invalidation level, 98.11, at 16:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US Import Prices MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.8% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
- US Export Prices MoM — 2.2% against a forecast of 1% (above forecast), previous 1.2%
- US Industrial Production MoM — 0.7% against a forecast of 0.4% (above forecast), previous 0.1%
- US Monthly Budget Statement — -27B against a forecast of -29B (above forecast), previous -167B
Two bullish bounce forecasts resolved at 16:00 UTC as price reached their target bands, completing calls that had been standing since the previous afternoon.
US economic data landed above expectations during the session. Import Prices MoM rose 1.1% against a 0.8% forecast, Export Prices MoM printed at 2.2% against 1% expected, and Industrial Production MoM expanded 0.7% compared to the 0.4% forecast. Earlier in the day, Fed Chair Warsh gave a scheduled speech for which no reading was available.
At the close, a fresh bounce forecast issued at 19:00 UTC was standing, with price finishing at its 98.96 target level.
Due in the next session:
- US Net Long-term TIC Flows — forecast 75.2B, previous -27.9B
- US Fed Goolsbee Speech
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
Before the American session 95.64 to 95.90 (+26.0 cents), range 77.0
Released during this session:
- EU Balance of Trade — -16.1B, previous 10.7B
An upward bounce forecast issued on 15 October remained live at the 11:00 UTC close, targeting 98.11 from the 95.77 to 96.44 zone. With the session closing at 95.90, price stood 221.0 cents away from the target band.
During the window, EU balance of trade printed at -16.1B against a previous 10.7B. Scheduled ahead in the US session, US import and export prices are expected at 12:30 UTC, followed by industrial production at 13:15 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Import Prices MoM — forecast 0.8%, previous 0.5%
- US Export Prices MoM — forecast 1%, previous 1.2%
- US Industrial Production MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%
Before the European session 97.69 to 95.64 (-205.0 cents), range 208.0
Released during this session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
- US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
At the close of the window, an upward bounce forecast issued on 15 October at 17:00 UTC remained standing. The call targeted 98.11 from a zone between 95.77 and 96.44, with the session close at 95.78 leaving price inside the zone and 233.0 cents from the target.
During the session, Fed Chair Warsh spoke at 03:30 UTC. Ahead in the European session, EU Balance of Trade figures are scheduled for 09:00 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- EU Balance of Trade
15 October the day: 95.09 to 97.60 (+251.0 cents), range 474.0
At the close 95.19 to 97.69 (+250.0 cents), range 349.0
Released during this session:
- US PPI MoM — 1.3% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — 20.9 against a forecast of 28.4 (below forecast), previous 37.8
- US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — 0.1% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 1.2%
- US Core PPI MoM — 0.7% against a forecast of 0.3% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
- US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — 25.5 against a forecast of 10.3 (above forecast), previous 7.6
- US Initial Jobless Claims — 199K against a forecast of 200K (below forecast), previous 198K
- US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — 0.9% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 1.4%
- US Retail Sales MoM — 0.8% against a forecast of 0.3% (above forecast), previous 1.3%
- US Business Inventories MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.9%
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — 3.6% against a forecast of 3.6% (in line with forecast), previous 3.6%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 3.518M against a forecast of -0.5M (above forecast), previous 0.382M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -8.557M against a forecast of -0.3M (below forecast), previous -3.186M
A bounce forecast issued at 17:00 UTC pointing upward toward a target of 98.11 remained standing at the close, finishing 42.0 cents away from its target band.
The session saw a series of US releases, with PPI MoM arriving at 1.3% against a 0.5% forecast and Retail Sales MoM printing at 0.8% against an expected 0.3%. Later in the session, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change showed a draw of -8.557M compared to the forecast of -0.3M. Earlier in the day, EU Industrial Production MoM landed at -0.5% against a 0% forecast.
Ahead in the next session, Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to speak at 03:30 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
- US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
Before the American session 94.06 to 95.18 (+112.0 cents), range 168.0
Released during this session:
- EU Industrial Production MoM — -0.5% against a forecast of 0% (below forecast), previous -0.3%
Major US economic data releases are scheduled for 12:30 UTC, led by PPI MoM expected at 0.5% and Retail Sales MoM expected at 0.3%.
A new upward forecast was issued at 09:00 UTC, calling for a bounce from the 93.25–93.85 zone toward a target of 95.35. At the close of the session, the call was still standing, with price 17.0 cents short of the target level.
Earlier in the window, EU Industrial Production MoM landed at -0.5% against a forecast of 0%.
Due in the next session:
- US PPI MoM — forecast 0.5%, previous 0.5%
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — forecast 28.4, previous 37.8
- US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 1.2%
- US Core PPI MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%
- US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — forecast 10.3, previous 7.6
- US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 200K, previous 198K
- US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — forecast 0.5%, previous 1.4%
- US Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 1.3%
- US Business Inventories MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.9%
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — forecast 3.6%, previous 3.6%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -0.5M, previous 0.382M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast -0.3M, previous -3.186M
Before the European session 95.13 to 94.06 (-107.0 cents), range 172.0
Released during this session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -11.1M against a forecast of 1.9M (below forecast), previous -2.09M
- US Fed Bowman Speech
The US API Crude Oil Stock Change print landed at -11.1M against a forecast of 1.9M, while the session spanned a 172.0-cent range. Fed Bowman was also scheduled to speak during the window.
At 05:00 UTC, an upward bounce forecast issued on 12 October remained standing, targeting the 93.27 level with the close finishing 79.0 cents away. Ahead in the European session, EU Industrial Production MoM is scheduled for 09:00 UTC with a forecast of 0%.
Due in the next session:
- EU Industrial Production MoM — forecast 0%, previous -0.3%
14 October the day: 94.70 to 95.13 (+43.0 cents), range 206.0
At the close 95.39 to 95.14 (-25.0 cents), range 130.0
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 7.5%, previous 7.49%
- US CPI s.a — 336.3, previous 334.13
- US CPI — 336.94 against a forecast of 336.65 (above forecast), previous 334.98
- US Core Inflation Rate MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
- US Inflation Rate YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.4%
- US Core Inflation Rate YoY — 2.6% against a forecast of 2.5% (above forecast), previous 2.4%
- US Inflation Rate MoM — 0.6% against a forecast of 0.6% (in line with forecast), previous 0.4%
- US Fed Barkin Speech
US CPI readings released at 12:30 UTC showed US Core Inflation Rate MoM at 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast, while the YoY Inflation Rate landed at 3.7% above the expected 3.6%. Core Inflation Rate YoY came in at 2.6% versus the 2.5% forecast, and MoM Inflation Rate matched expectations at 0.6%.
At the close, the bounce forecast issued on 12 October with a target of 93.27 was still standing, with price ending the session 187.0 cents away from the target band.
API Crude Oil Stock Change data is scheduled next at 20:30 UTC, with an expected inventory build of 1.9M.
Due in the next session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast 1.9M, previous -2.09M
- US Fed Bowman Speech
Before the American session 94.73 to 95.40 (+67.0 cents), range 150.0
Released during this session:
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- US Fed Bowman Speech
Major US inflation figures are scheduled for release ahead of the American session at 12:30 UTC, including MoM Inflation Rate expected at 0.6%, YoY Inflation Rate expected at 3.6%, and MoM Core Inflation Rate expected at 0.2%. Earlier in the session, speeches were scheduled from ECB President Lagarde at 08:30 UTC and Fed Governor Bowman at 09:40 UTC.
An upward forecast issued on 12 October on a bounce leg targeting 93.27 had not resolved by the close, with price ending 213.0 cents from the target.
Due in the next session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- US CPI s.a
- US CPI — forecast 336.65, previous 334.98
- US Core Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.2%, previous 0.3%
- US Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 3.6%, previous 3.4%
- US Core Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.4%
- US Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.6%, previous 0.4%
Before the European session 94.66 to 94.72 (+6.0 cents), range 85.0
Released during this session:
- US Fed Collins Speech
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
Ahead in the session, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 08:30 UTC. During the window, Lagarde spoke at 02:10 UTC and Fed Collins spoke at 20:00 UTC, with no readings carried for either scheduled appearance.
At the close, an upward bounce forecast issued on 12 October had not resolved, with price finishing 145.0 cents from the 93.27 target.
Due in the next session:
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- US Fed Bowman Speech
13 October the day: 93.21 to 94.76 (+155.0 cents), range 339.0
Nothing was worth reporting from this session.
12 October the day: 91.91 to 93.14 (+123.0 cents), range 475.0
At the close 92.67 to 93.32 (+65.0 cents), range 169.0
Released during this session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
Earlier in the day prior to the session, a bounce forecast issued on 8 October reached its target at 22:00 UTC on 11 October, while a second call from that afternoon ended as failed at 02:00 UTC on 12 October.
Fed Hammack was scheduled to speak at 16:50 UTC. A new upward bounce forecast was issued at 18:00 UTC with a target at 93.83 and a zone between 91.33 and 92.04. At the close it was still standing, with price sitting 51.0 cents away from the target band.
What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 93.83 on 13 October at 14:00 UTC.
How the week ended
How the week ended
| Forecasts that ended this week | 8 |
|---|---|
| Reached the level they named | 7 |
| Ended without reaching it | 1 |
| Issued this week | 18 |
| Still standing on Sunday | 12 |
| Week open to close | 91.91 to 99.00 (+709.0 cents) |
| Week range | 89.58 to 99.32 (974.0 cents) |
The week
During the week of 12 to 18 October 2026, 8 forecasts for WTI ended. Of those that settled, 7 reached their target band and 1 ended another way. Across the same period, 18 new forecasts were issued, 12 of which remained open at the end of the week.
WTI opened the week at 91.91, reached a low of 89.58 and a high of 99.32, and closed at 99.00. The total range for the week was 974.0 cents, with a net change of 709.0 cents.
A forecast issued on 2026-10-16 pointed to an upward trend, setting the lower edge of the zone at 96.65, the upper edge of the zone at 97.32, and a target of 99.00. That forecast remained live at the weekly close.
Every forecast that ended this week
| Issued | Direction | Corridor | Continuation | Invalidation | Reached | Ended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 16:00 | up | 95.44 - 96.11 | 97.78 | bounce | 2026-10-16 16:00 | |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 | up | 95.77 - 96.44 | 98.11 | bounce | 2026-10-16 16:00 | |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 | up | 91.04 - 91.80 | 93.70 | bounce | 2026-10-13 14:00 | |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 | up | 91.13 - 91.89 | 93.78 | bounce | 2026-10-13 14:00 | |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 | up | 91.22 - 91.96 | 93.81 | bounce | 2026-10-13 14:00 | |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 | up | 91.33 - 92.04 | 93.83 | bounce | 2026-10-13 14:00 | |
| 2026-10-08 15:00 | up | 90.39 - 91.06 | 92.73 | bounce | 2026-10-12 02:00 | |
| 2026-10-08 11:00 | up | 90.32 - 90.97 | 92.58 | bounce | 2026-10-11 22:00 |
On the calendar this week
- 12 October, 16:50 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 13 October, 07:45 UTC - US Fed Waller Speech
- 13 October, 12:15 UTC - US ADP Employment Change Weekly
- 13 October, 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales MoM
- 13 October, 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales
- 13 October, 17:00 UTC - US Fed Barkin Speech
- 13 October, 20:00 UTC - US Fed Collins Speech
- 14 October, 02:10 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- 14 October, 08:30 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- 14 October, 09:40 UTC - US Fed Bowman Speech
- 14 October, 11:00 UTC - US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US CPI s.a
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US CPI
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Core Inflation Rate MoM
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Inflation Rate YoY
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Core Inflation Rate YoY
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Inflation Rate MoM
- 14 October, 17:30 UTC - US Fed Barkin Speech
- 14 October, 21:00 UTC - US API Crude Oil Stock Change
- 15 October, 02:55 UTC - US Fed Bowman Speech
- 15 October, 09:00 UTC - EU Industrial Production MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US PPI MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales Control Group MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Core PPI MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Initial Jobless Claims
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales MoM
- 15 October, 14:00 UTC - US Business Inventories MoM
- 15 October, 15:30 UTC - US Atlanta Fed GDPNow
- 15 October, 16:00 UTC - US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
- 15 October, 16:00 UTC - US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- 15 October, 20:30 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 16 October, 03:30 UTC - US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
- 16 October, 09:00 UTC - EU Balance of Trade
- 16 October, 12:30 UTC - US Import Prices MoM
- 16 October, 12:30 UTC - US Export Prices MoM
- 16 October, 13:15 UTC - US Industrial Production MoM
- 16 October, 18:00 UTC - US Monthly Budget Statement
- 16 October, 20:00 UTC - US Net Long-term TIC Flows
- 16 October, 22:00 UTC - US Fed Goolsbee Speech
- 17 October, 05:00 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech