XAU/USD forecast review, 17 to 23 August 2026

21 August the day: 4517.69 to 4602.06 (+84.4 dollars), range 123.4

At the close 4588.35 to 4616.68 (+28.3 dollars), range 68.7

Released during this session:

• 13:45 UTC US S&P Global Services PMI Flash — forecast 54
• 13:45 UTC US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — forecast 53.9
• 13:45 UTC US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
• 14:00 UTC EU Consumer Confidence Flash — -15.5 against a forecast of -16.3 (above forecast), previous -15.9

An upward forecast was issued at 14:00 UTC from a zone between 4540.3 and 4559.1, targeting a continuation level of 4636.7 with an invalidation level at 4508.1. At the close, the market stood 20.0 dollars below the upper target and 108.6 dollars above the invalidation level.

Earlier in the session, US flash Services, Manufacturing, and Composite PMI prints landed at 13:45 UTC, followed by the EU Consumer Confidence Flash release at 14:00 UTC.

What followed: that forecast reached its continuation level of 4636.74 on 24 August at 02:00 UTC.

Before the American session 4540.35 to 4588.26 (+47.9 dollars), range 72.8

Resolved here: the forecast issued 21 August at 04:00 reached its continuation level, 4575.80, at 08:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 08:00 UTC EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — forecast 51.8
• 08:00 UTC EU S&P Global Services PMI Flash — forecast 51.5
• 08:00 UTC EU S&P Global Composite PMI Flash — forecast 51.7
• 09:00 UTC EU Negotiated Wage Growth — 2.44%, previous 2.56%

An upward forecast issued at 04:00 UTC reached its continuation target of 4575.8 dollars at 08:00 UTC, four hours into its run.

During the session, S&P Global Flash Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI releases for the EU landed at 08:00 UTC, followed by EU Negotiated Wage Growth at 09:00 UTC. Across the six-hour window, XAU/USD spanned a range of 72.9 dollars, closing at 4588.3 dollars.

Due in the next session:

• 13:45 UTC US S&P Global Services PMI Flash — forecast 54
• 13:45 UTC US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — forecast 53.9
• 13:45 UTC US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
• 14:00 UTC EU Consumer Confidence Flash — forecast -16.3, previous -15.9

Before the European session 4528.31 to 4540.31 (+12.0 dollars), range 39.3

Resolved here: the forecast issued 19 August at 19:00 reached its continuation level, 4530.57, at 01:00 UTC.

An upward forecast issued on 19 August at 19:00 UTC resolved at 02:00 UTC on 21 August, reaching its target level of 4530.6.

A new upward forecast was published at 04:00 UTC from a corridor between 4479.0 and 4497.7. The target level is set at 4575.8 with an invalidation level at 4446.7. The close sits 35.5 dollars below the target and 93.6 dollars above invalidation.

Flash S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI data for the Eurozone are scheduled for 08:00 UTC, followed by Negotiated Wage Growth figures at 09:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 08:00 UTC EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — forecast 51.8
• 08:00 UTC EU S&P Global Services PMI Flash — forecast 51.5
• 08:00 UTC EU S&P Global Composite PMI Flash — forecast 51.7
• 09:00 UTC EU Negotiated Wage Growth

20 August the day: 4522.14 to 4514.01 (-8.1 dollars), range 90.4

At the close 4489.98 to 4528.40 (+38.4 dollars), range 90.4

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — 47.4 against a forecast of 25 (above forecast), previous 41.4
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 206K against a forecast of 210K (below forecast), previous 212K

An upward forecast issued from the 4436.2–4455.8 zone remains active. The session close of 4528.4 leaves price 2.2 dollars short of its 4530.6 continuation target and 123.6 dollars above the 4404.8 invalidation level.

At 12:30 UTC, two US economic data points were released: the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Initial Jobless Claims.

19 August the day: 4332.74 to 4522.30 (+189.6 dollars), range 200.2

At the close 4367.23 to 4511.07 (+143.8 dollars), range 150.3

Resolved here: the forecast issued 19 August at 04:00 reached its invalidation level, 4404.90, at 12:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.77%, previous 6.77%
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 4.405M against a forecast of -0.6M (above forecast), previous 17.422M
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 0.688M against a forecast of -1.2M (above forecast), previous -0.968M
• 18:00 UTC US FOMC Minutes

A downward forecast issued at 04:00 UTC reached its invalidation level of 4404.9 dollars at 12:00 UTC. Later in the session, a new upward forecast was issued at 19:00 UTC from a corridor between 4436.2 and 4455.8 dollars, setting a continuation target of 4530.6 dollars and an invalidation level at 4404.8 dollars. At the close, price sat 19.5 dollars short of the target and 106.3 dollars above the invalidation level.

On the macroeconomic calendar, US FOMC Minutes were released at 18:00 UTC. Additional US releases included the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 UTC, followed by the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change and EIA Gasoline Stocks Change figures at 14:30 UTC.

Before the European session 4345.45 to 4348.32 (+2.9 dollars), range 37.9

Released during this session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -3.28M, previous 9.072M

A downward forecast was issued at 04:00 UTC from an entry zone between 4362.0 and 4377.9 dollars. The continuation target sits at 4296.9 dollars, placing it 51.4 dollars from the close, while the invalidation level is set at 4404.9 dollars, 56.6 dollars away.

During the session, the US API Crude Oil Stock Change figure landed at 21:00 UTC. Ahead, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 07:10 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 07:10 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

18 August the day: 4417.27 to 4330.14 (-87.1 dollars), range 106.6

At the close 4397.62 to 4345.41 (-52.2 dollars), range 68.1

Resolved here: the forecast issued 17 August at 19:00 reached its invalidation level, 4353.27, at 18:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 9.5K, previous 8.25K
• 12:30 UTC US Housing Starts MoM — -12.4%, previous 19.7%
• 12:30 UTC US Housing Starts — 1.239M against a forecast of 1.35M (below forecast), previous 1.415M
• 12:30 UTC US Building Permits Prel — 1.443M against a forecast of 1.37M (above forecast), previous 1.374M
• 12:30 UTC US Import Prices MoM — -0.4% against a forecast of 0.1% (below forecast), previous -0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Building Permits MoM Prel — 5%, previous -2.6%
• 12:30 UTC US Export Prices MoM — -1.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (below forecast), previous -0.7%
• 13:15 UTC US Industrial Production MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.3%
• 14:00 UTC US Pending Home Sales YoY — -2.2%, previous -0.3%
• 14:00 UTC US Pending Home Sales MoM — -2.3% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous -4.8%

The upward forecast issued on 17 August at 19:00 UTC resolved to its invalidation level of 4353.3 on 18 August at 19:00 UTC.

In US economic data, Housing Starts and preliminary Building Permits were published at 12:30 UTC. Across the session, XAU/USD covered a range of 68.1 dollars, reaching a high of 4406.3 and a low of 4338.2 before ending the window at 4345.4.

Due in the next session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change

17 August the day: 4375.81 to 4414.57 (+38.8 dollars), range 61.8

At the close 4398.95 to 4419.61 (+20.7 dollars), range 51.9

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — 20.6 against a forecast of 11 (above forecast), previous 15.6
• 14:00 UTC US NAHB Housing Market Index — 35 against a forecast of 33 (above forecast), previous 34

A new upward forecast was issued at 19:00 UTC from a corridor between 4378.4 and 4394.7, targeting 4453.8 with an invalidation level at 4353.3. At the close, XAU/USD sits 34.2 dollars short of the continuation target and 66.3 dollars above the invalidation mark.

During the window, the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index was released at 12:30 UTC, followed by the US NAHB Housing Market Index at 14:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 20:00 UTC US Net Long-term TIC Flows — forecast 151.4B, previous 231.2B

Before the American session 4390.32 to 4398.77 (+8.5 dollars), range 24.5

A downward forecast issued at 05:00 UTC on 14 August 2026 resolved at 06:00 UTC when price reached the invalidation target of 4401.3 dollars.

Looking ahead to the American session, the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is scheduled for 12:30 UTC, followed by the NAHB Housing Market Index at 14:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — forecast 11, previous 15.6
• 14:00 UTC US NAHB Housing Market Index — forecast 33, previous 34