XAU/USD forecast review, 24 to 30 August 2026

28 August the day: 4601.8 to 4450.1 (-151.7 dollars), range 185.6

At the close 4600.0 to 4458.0 (-142.0 dollars), range 185.6

Resolved here: the forecast issued 26 August at 18:00 reached its continuation level, 4549.9, at 15:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 13:45 UTC US Chicago PMI — 47.1 against a forecast of 58.3 (below forecast), previous 57.6
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final — 51.7 against a forecast of 51 (above forecast), previous 55.2
• 14:00 UTC US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
• 14:00 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prel — -79K, previous -911K
• 16:30 UTC US Fed Goolsbee Speech

A downward forecast issued on 26 August resolved as price reached its continuation target.

During the session, major US events included the preliminary Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision landing at -79K and a scheduled speech by Fed Chair Warsh. Among routine releases, Chicago PMI printed at 47.1 against a 58.3 forecast, while the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading came in at 51.7 compared to the expected 51.

Ahead, the Jackson Hole Symposium is scheduled for 00:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

Before the American session 4584.2 to 4600.0 (+15.8 dollars), range 43.3

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Economic Sentiment — 98.4 against a forecast of 97.5 (above forecast), previous 97.1

Two major releases are scheduled for 14:00 UTC ahead of the American session: a speech by Fed Chair Warsh and the preliminary Non Farm Payrolls annual revision, which showed -911K in its previous print.

The downward forecast issued on 26 August was still standing at 11:00 UTC, sitting 50.1 dollars above its target at 4549.9 and 81.4 dollars below the 4681.4 invalidation level. Earlier in the session, EU Economic Sentiment published at 98.4 against a forecast of 97.5.

Due in the next session:

• 13:45 UTC US Chicago PMI — forecast 58.3, previous 57.6
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final — forecast 51, previous 55.2
• 14:00 UTC US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
• 14:00 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prel
• 16:30 UTC US Fed Goolsbee Speech

Before the European session 4608.9 to 4584.1 (-24.8 dollars), range 35.7

Released during this session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

A downward forecast issued at 18:00 UTC on 26 August 2026 from the corridor between 4629.5 and 4648.5 dollars was still standing at 05:00 UTC. At the end of the window, price sat 34.2 dollars above the continuation target of 4549.9 dollars and 97.3 dollars below the invalidation level of 4681.4 dollars.

The US Jackson Hole Symposium was scheduled at 00:00 UTC, with no reading available. Later in the morning, EU Economic Sentiment is scheduled for 09:00 UTC with a forecast of 97.5 following a previous reading of 96.9.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Economic Sentiment — forecast 97.5, previous 97.1

27 August the day: 4594.4 to 4600.2 (+5.8 dollars), range 78.3

At the close 4589.8 to 4609.1 (+19.3 dollars), range 53.7

Released during this session:

• 11:30 UTC EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv — 0.7%, previous -0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 203K against a forecast of 208K (below forecast), previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — 1.3% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Goods Trade Balance Adv — -118.8B against a forecast of -99B (below forecast), previous -101.41B

US economic data landed at 12:30 UTC, with Initial Jobless Claims printing at 203K against a forecast of 208K, Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv at 1.3% against a 0.1% forecast, and the Goods Trade Balance Adv at -118.8B against a forecast of -99B.

The downward forecast issued on 26 August from the 4629.5–4648.5 dollar corridor remained standing at the close. At 20:00 UTC, price sat 59.2 dollars above its 4549.9 continuation target and 72.3 dollars below its 4681.4 invalidation level. Jackson Hole Symposium proceedings are scheduled on the calendar for 00:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

Before the American session 4618.3 to 4589.9 (-28.4 dollars), range 52.5

The downward forecast issued on 2026-08-26 at 18:00 UTC remained standing at 11:00 UTC. At the close of the window, price sat 40.0 dollars above the 4549.9 continuation target and 91.5 dollars below the 4681.4 invalidation level.

Ahead of the US session, Initial Jobless Claims are scheduled for 12:30 UTC with an expectation of 208K, alongside the Goods Trade Balance, forecasted at -99B, and Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv, projected at 0.1%.

Due in the next session:

• 11:30 UTC EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 208K, previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — forecast 0.1%, previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Goods Trade Balance Adv — forecast -99B, previous -101.41B

26 August the day: 4655.7 to 4590.0 (-65.7 dollars), range 90.8

At the close 4620.1 to 4594.3 (-25.8 dollars), range 50.5

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.78%, previous 6.77%
• 12:30 UTC US PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous -0.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.6% (below forecast), previous 1.1%
• 12:30 UTC US GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 3.6%
• 12:30 UTC US PCE Price Index YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.7%
• 12:30 UTC US Corporate Profits QoQ Prel — 8.2%, previous 0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Personal Spending MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Personal Income MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est — 1.5% against a forecast of 1.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods Orders MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Core PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.2% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -2.536M against a forecast of -0.7M (below forecast), previous 0.688M
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 0.095M against a forecast of 0.6M (below forecast), previous 4.405M
• 15:45 UTC US Fed Barkin Speech

A 50.5-dollar session range pushed XAUUSD lower toward the lower end of its daily span, covering 2.81 times its average hourly volatility.

At the 20:00 UTC close, the upward forecast issued on 24 August remained active. The session ended at 4594.3 dollars, leaving the price 101.4 dollars below the 4695.7 continuation target and 54.5 dollars above the 4539.8 invalidation level.

A batch of major US economic releases arrived at 12:30 UTC, including Personal Spending, Personal Income, Core PCE, and the second estimate for quarterly GDP Growth Rate.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

25 August the day: 4650.4 to 4656.6 (+6.2 dollars), range 91.8

Before the European session 4651.5 to 4625.7 (-25.8 dollars), range 79.8

Price traversed a 79.8-dollar range across the window, equivalent to 3.54 times the hourly average true range, with the high reaching 4696.6 dollars.

At the close of the session, the upward forecast issued at 05:00 UTC on 24 August had not resolved. The price sat 70.0 dollars short of the 4695.7 continuation target and 85.9 dollars above the 4539.8 invalidation level.

24 August the day: 4617.3 to 4651.4 (+34.1 dollars), range 86.7

At the close 4643.1 to 4651.5 (+8.4 dollars), range 55.8

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Chicago Fed National Activity Index — -0.08, previous 0.06
• 17:00 UTC US Treasury Secretary Bessent Speech

Treasury Secretary Bessent spoke at 18:00 UTC during a session that spanned 55.8 dollars, equivalent to 2.53 times the average hourly range. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index landed earlier at 12:30 UTC.

The upward forecast issued at 05:00 UTC had not resolved by the 20:00 UTC close. At the end of the window, price sat 44.2 dollars below the continuation target of 4695.7 and 111.7 dollars above the invalidation level at 4539.8.

Before the American session 4638.7 to 4643.1 (+4.4 dollars), range 31.1

An upward forecast issued at 05:00 UTC was still standing at the close of the session. It had not resolved by 11:00 UTC, leaving XAU/USD 52.6 dollars away from the 4695.7 continuation target and 103.3 dollars above the 4539.8 invalidation level.

During the six-hour window, price reached a high of 4659.7 within a 31.1 dollar span before settling at 4643.1.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Before the European session 4617.3 to 4638.6 (+21.3 dollars), range 62.8

The upward forecast issued on 21 August resolved during the session as price reached its continuation target. Trading spanned a 62.8 dollar range, reaching 2.85 times the hourly average true range.