XAU/USD forecast review, 31 August to 6 September 2026

4 September the day: 4472.6 to 4430.5 (-42.1 dollars), range 125.3

At the close 4472.7 to 4434.6 (-38.1 dollars), range 110.3

Resolved here: the forecast issued 3 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 4400.7, at 12:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 3 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 4455.2, at 12:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls — 162K against a forecast of 56K (above forecast), previous 21K
• 12:30 UTC US Unemployment Rate — 4.1% against a forecast of 4.1% (in line with forecast), previous 4.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.3% (in line with forecast), previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings YoY — 3.1% against a forecast of 3% (above forecast), previous 3.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Participation Rate — 61.6%, previous 61.4%

The bullish forecast issued on 3 September reached its invalidation level at 13:00 UTC, closing on the down side of its structure.

US Non-Farm Payrolls landed at 12:30 UTC at 162K against a 56K forecast, alongside an unemployment rate of 4.1% matching expectations. Earlier at 09:00 UTC, EU Retail Sales MoM contracted by 0.6% against an anticipated 0.3% gain.

No forecast was standing at the close.

Before the American session 4473.4 to 4472.5 (-0.9 dollars), range 30.7

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Retail Sales MoM — -0.6% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.2%

Major US labor market data is scheduled ahead at 12:30 UTC, with Non Farm Payrolls expected at 56K and the Unemployment Rate forecasted at 4.1%.

Earlier in the session, European Retail Sales MoM was released at -0.6%, falling below the forecasted 0.3%.

The upward forecast issued on 3 September at 18:00 UTC remained standing at the close of the window, with price sitting between the target at 4547.9 dollars and the invalidation level at 4398.8 dollars.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls — forecast 56K, previous 21K
• 12:30 UTC US Unemployment Rate — forecast 4.1%, previous 4.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings YoY — forecast 3%, previous 3.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Participation Rate

Before the European session 4475.0 to 4473.4 (-1.6 dollars), range 21.9

An upward forecast issued at 18:00 UTC on 3 September remained active throughout the overnight session, with price holding above the entry zone of 4436.1 to 4455.2. At 05:00 UTC, the call was still standing, with the market ending the window 74.5 dollars from the continuation target at 4547.9 and 74.6 dollars from the 4398.8 invalidation level.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%

3 September the day: 4386.8 to 4473.3 (+86.5 dollars), range 129.9

At the close 4426.9 to 4474.8 (+47.9 dollars), range 85.9

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 206K against a forecast of 205K (above forecast), previous 204K
• 12:30 UTC US Exports — 310.7B, previous 314.7B
• 12:30 UTC US Imports — 399.3B, previous 388.5B
• 12:30 UTC US Balance of Trade — -88.6B against a forecast of -90B (above forecast), previous -71.2B
• 12:30 UTC US Fed Waller Speech
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Services PMI — 55.4 against a forecast of 54.3 (above forecast), previous 54.1
• 19:00 UTC US Fed Hammack Speech

An upward forecast issued at 17:00 UTC on 2 September was withdrawn at 02:00 UTC after a new extreme occurred before the expected pull-back.

In economic releases, the major US ISM Services PMI printed at 55.4 against a 54.3 forecast. Among routine US data, Initial Jobless Claims landed at 206K versus the 205K expectation, while the Balance of Trade registered at -88.6B compared to a forecasted -90B. Speeches by Fed officials Waller and Hammack were also scheduled during the session.

Before the American session 4437.0 to 4427.1 (-9.9 dollars), range 25.5

A major release is scheduled ahead for the US session, with the ISM Services PMI due at 14:00 UTC with a forecast of 54.3. Earlier at 12:30 UTC, US Initial Jobless Claims are expected at 205K, alongside trade balance figures and a speech by Fed Waller.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 205K, previous 204K
• 12:30 UTC US Exports
• 12:30 UTC US Imports
• 12:30 UTC US Balance of Trade — forecast -90B, previous -71.2B
• 12:30 UTC US Fed Waller Speech
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Services PMI — forecast 54.3, previous 54.1

Before the European session 4390.7 to 4437.1 (+46.4 dollars), range 58.0

Resolved here: the forecast issued 1 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 4427.4, at 03:00 UTC.

An upward forecast issued prior to the session resolved as price reached its continuation target. No active forecast was standing at the close of the window.

What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 4351.4 on 8 September at 20:00 UTC.

2 September the day: 4327.6 to 4387.1 (+59.5 dollars), range 115.5

Before the American session 4307.0 to 4309.2 (+2.2 dollars), range 30.2

A downward forecast issued at 06:00 UTC was still standing at 11:00 UTC. Drawn from the 4330.2–4350.1 zone, the call sets a continuation target at 4248.0 and an invalidation point at 4384.1. At the close of the window, price sat 61.2 dollars short of the target and 74.9 dollars from invalidation.

Ahead in the American session, ADP Employment Change is scheduled for 12:15 UTC with a forecast of 47K, followed by Factory Orders MoM at 14:00 UTC expected at 0.6%. At 11:00 UTC, the US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate was released at 6.79.

Due in the next session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change — forecast 47K, previous 46K
• 14:00 UTC US Factory Orders MoM — forecast 0.6%, previous -0.2%
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast -1.1M, previous 0.095M
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -1.9M, previous -2.536M

What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 4390.8 on 2 September at 14:00 UTC.

Before the European session 4327.0 to 4306.8 (-20.2 dollars), range 53.7

Resolved here: the forecast issued 10 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 4299.2, at 01:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 19 August at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 4313.8, at 00:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 20:50 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -2.6M against a forecast of -0.8M (below forecast), previous 4.2M

A downward forecast issued late in the previous session resolved after reaching its continuation target two bars into the window. No active call remained standing at the close of the period.

The API Crude Oil Stock Change release showed a drawdown of -2.6M against an expected -0.8M.

1 September the day: 4449.1 to 4327.4 (-121.7 dollars), range 138.8

At the close 4378.0 to 4327.1 (-50.9 dollars), range 64.6

Released during this session:

• 13:05 UTC US Fed Barr Speech
• 14:00 UTC US JOLTs Job Openings — 7.271M against a forecast of 7.3M (below forecast), previous 7.182M
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Manufacturing PMI — 54.6 against a forecast of 55.2 (below forecast), previous 55.6
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Manufacturing Employment — 51.2, previous 52.8

A short-term bearish forecast issued on 31 August was withdrawn at 09:00 UTC following a new extreme before the pull-back. No further calls were issued during the session, leaving no active forecast at the close.

Earlier in the day, Eurozone flash YoY inflation landed at 3.3% at 09:00 UTC, matching expectations. During the session at 14:00 UTC, US JOLTs job openings printed at 7.271M against a forecasted 7.3M, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.6 against an expected 55.2.

Due in the next session:

• 20:50 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast -0.8M, previous 4.2M

Before the American session 4426.3 to 4377.9 (-48.4 dollars), range 81.8

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash — 2.4% against a forecast of 2.5% (below forecast), previous 2.5%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate MoM Flash — 0.4%, previous 0.2%
• 09:00 UTC EU Unemployment Rate — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 6.4%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash — 3.3% against a forecast of 3.3% (in line with forecast), previous 2.9%

Two major US releases are scheduled for 14:00 UTC, with JOLTs Job Openings expected at 7.3M and the ISM Manufacturing PMI expected at 55.2. A speech by Fed Barr is also scheduled for 13:05 UTC.

Earlier in the morning, the flash EU Inflation Rate YoY printed at 3.3%, matching expectations, while Core Inflation YoY came in at 2.4% against a 2.5% forecast.

At the end of the window, the downward forecast issued on 31 August had not resolved, with price finishing 33.1 dollars above its continuation target of 4344.8 dollars.

Due in the next session:

• 13:05 UTC US Fed Barr Speech
• 14:00 UTC US JOLTs Job Openings — forecast 7.3M, previous 7.182M
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Manufacturing PMI — forecast 55.2, previous 55.6
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Manufacturing Employment

Before the European session 4453.2 to 4426.4 (-26.8 dollars), range 36.1

At 05:00 UTC, the downward forecast issued at 05:00 UTC on 31 August had not resolved. It finished the session 81.6 dollars from its 4344.8 target and 123.8 dollars from the 4550.2 invalidation level.

Looking ahead, the major EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash reading is scheduled for 09:00 UTC, with an expected figure of 3.3%.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.5%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate MoM Flash
• 09:00 UTC EU Unemployment Rate — forecast 6.3%, previous 6.4%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash — forecast 3.3%, previous 2.9%

31 August the day: 4431.4 to 4447.4 (+16.0 dollars), range 75.7

At the close 4453.7 to 4453.3 (-0.4 dollars), range 48.3

Released during this session:

• 14:30 UTC US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index — 11.6, previous 1.3

At 20:00 UTC, the downward forecast issued at 05:00 UTC was still standing. At the session close, price sat 108.5 dollars above the continuation target at 4344.8 and 96.9 dollars below the invalidation level at 4550.2.

During the window, the US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index landed at 11.6, up from a previous reading of 1.3.

Before the American session 4424.3 to 4453.7 (+29.4 dollars), range 36.5

At 11:00 UTC, the downward forecast issued at the start of the window at 05:00 UTC was still standing. Price closed 108.9 dollars above the continuation target of 4344.8 and 96.5 dollars below the invalidation level at 4550.2.

Looking ahead to the American session, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is scheduled for release at 14:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 14:30 UTC US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

Before the European session 4431.4 to 4424.2 (-7.2 dollars), range 75.7

Resolved here: the forecast issued 20 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 4436.2, at 22:00 UTC.

XAU/USD moved through a 75.7 dollar range across the session, extending to 2.8 times the hourly ATR.