XAU/USD forecast review, 12 to 18 October 2026
The last forecast of the week
Issued 2026-10-16 21:00 UTC, upward, from a zone between 4140.7 and 4154.4. The next level is 4189.4.
It had not resolved as of 2026-10-19 04:00 UTC: price had not reached its level.
Readings on this market have taken a median of 31 hours to reach the level they named, over the 64 that have.
Session by session
16 October the day: 4171.0 to 4165.3 (-5.7 dollars), range 51.8
At the close 4174.0 to 4168.7 (-5.3 dollars), range 44.1
Released during this session:
- US Import Prices MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.8% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
- US Export Prices MoM — 2.2% against a forecast of 1% (above forecast), previous 1.2%
- US Industrial Production MoM — 0.7% against a forecast of 0.4% (above forecast), previous 0.1%
- US Monthly Budget Statement — -27B against a forecast of -29B (above forecast), previous -167B
Earlier in the day, Fed Chair Warsh spoke at 03:30 UTC, though no reading is available for the event. During the session, US Import Prices MoM landed at 1.1% against a 0.8% forecast, while Export Prices MoM printed at 2.2% against an expected 1%. US Industrial Production MoM registered 0.7% against a 0.4% expectation, and the US Monthly Budget Statement posted -27B against the projected -29B.
At the close, an upward bounce forecast issued on 15 October was still standing, with the price sitting 15.5 dollars below its target of 4175.5.
Due in the next session:
- US Net Long-term TIC Flows — forecast 75.2B, previous -27.9B
- US Fed Goolsbee Speech
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
Before the American session 4183.3 to 4174.0 (-9.3 dollars), range 23.4
Released during this session:
- EU Balance of Trade — -16.1B, previous 10.7B
The standing forecast for an upward bounce, issued on 15 October, had not resolved by the end of the session. Price reached a high of 4192.0 before closing at 4174.0, leaving the market 1.5 dollars short of the 4175.5 target band.
Due in the next session:
- US Import Prices MoM — forecast 0.8%, previous 0.5%
- US Export Prices MoM — forecast 1%, previous 1.2%
- US Industrial Production MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%
Before the European session 4175.6 to 4183.1 (+7.5 dollars), range 36.6
Released during this session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
- US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
A bounce forecast targeting 4175.5 was issued at 20:00 UTC, pointing to a zone between 4125.8 and 4140.0. By the close of the window, the price had moved within 1.4 points of the target and the forecast had not resolved.
During the session, Fed Chair Warsh spoke at 03:30 UTC. Looking ahead to the European session, EU Balance of Trade figures are scheduled for release at 09:00 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- EU Balance of Trade
15 October the day: 4106.5 to 4171.2 (+64.7 dollars), range 77.7
At the close 4154.6 to 4175.5 (+20.9 dollars), range 46.5
Released during this session:
- US PPI MoM — 1.3% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — 20.9 against a forecast of 28.4 (below forecast), previous 37.8
- US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — 0.1% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 1.2%
- US Core PPI MoM — 0.7% against a forecast of 0.3% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
- US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — 25.5 against a forecast of 10.3 (above forecast), previous 7.6
- US Initial Jobless Claims — 199K against a forecast of 200K (below forecast), previous 198K
- US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — 0.9% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 1.4%
- US Retail Sales MoM — 0.8% against a forecast of 0.3% (above forecast), previous 1.3%
- US Business Inventories MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.9%
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — 3.6% against a forecast of 3.6% (in line with forecast), previous 3.6%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 3.518M against a forecast of -0.5M (above forecast), previous 0.382M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -8.557M against a forecast of -0.3M (below forecast), previous -3.186M
US economic prints dominated the session at 12:30 UTC, with US PPI MoM arriving at 1.3% against a 0.5% forecast and US Retail Sales MoM printing at 0.8% against a 0.3% expectation.
At the 20:00 UTC close, the upward forecast issued at 03:00 UTC was still standing, targeting 4159.5 dollars from a zone between 4107.8 and 4122.5 dollars. Earlier in the day, a downward forecast issued on 14 October dropped at 02:00 UTC without reaching its 4169.5 target.
Looking ahead, Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to speak at 03:30 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
- US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
Before the American session 4145.1 to 4154.6 (+9.5 dollars), range 29.0
Released during this session:
- EU Industrial Production MoM — -0.5% against a forecast of 0% (below forecast), previous -0.3%
Major US economic prints are scheduled at 12:30 UTC ahead of the American session opening, led by PPI MoM, expected at 0.5%, and Retail Sales MoM, expected at 0.3%.
Earlier in the session, EU Industrial Production MoM was released at 09:00 UTC at -0.5%, compared to a 0% forecast.
At 11:00 UTC, an upward bounce forecast issued at 03:00 UTC was still standing with a target of 4159.5, leaving price 4.9 dollars short of the target level.
Due in the next session:
- US PPI MoM — forecast 0.5%, previous 0.5%
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — forecast 28.4, previous 37.8
- US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 1.2%
- US Core PPI MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%
- US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — forecast 10.3, previous 7.6
- US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 200K, previous 198K
- US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — forecast 0.5%, previous 1.4%
- US Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 1.3%
- US Business Inventories MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.9%
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — forecast 3.6%, previous 3.6%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -0.5M, previous 0.382M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast -0.3M, previous -3.186M
Before the European session 4101.4 to 4145.1 (+43.7 dollars), range 64.9
Released during this session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -11.1M against a forecast of 1.9M (below forecast), previous -2.09M
- US Fed Bowman Speech
A downward bounce forecast resolved during the session as its target was reached. A new upward bounce forecast was subsequently issued targeting 4159.5; at 05:00 UTC it was still standing, with price 14.4 dollars from the target.
In scheduled calendar releases, API Crude Oil Stock Change landed at -11.1M against a 1.9M forecast, and Fed Bowman spoke, for which no reading is available. Ahead in the European session, EU Industrial Production MoM is scheduled for 09:00 UTC with a forecast of 0%.
Due in the next session:
- EU Industrial Production MoM — forecast 0%, previous -0.3%
14 October the day: 4161.0 to 4105.1 (-55.9 dollars), range 96.9
At the close 4140.7 to 4101.5 (-39.2 dollars), range 82.3
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 7.5%, previous 7.49%
- US CPI s.a — 336.3, previous 334.13
- US CPI — 336.94 against a forecast of 336.65 (above forecast), previous 334.98
- US Core Inflation Rate MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
- US Inflation Rate YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.4%
- US Core Inflation Rate YoY — 2.6% against a forecast of 2.5% (above forecast), previous 2.4%
- US Inflation Rate MoM — 0.6% against a forecast of 0.6% (in line with forecast), previous 0.4%
- US Fed Barkin Speech
US inflation data landed at 12:30 UTC, with Core Inflation Rate MoM coming in at 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast, while Inflation Rate YoY reached 3.7% above the expected 3.6%. Core Inflation Rate YoY was published at 2.6% compared to the 2.5% forecast, and Inflation Rate MoM matched expectations at 0.6%.
Earlier in the day, three upward bounce forecasts ended before the current session opened: two failed at 07:00 UTC and 10:00 UTC, while a third was dropped at 10:00 UTC.
A downward bounce forecast was issued at 11:00 UTC with a target band at 4169.5. At the 20:00 UTC close, the call was still standing, with price sitting 68.0 dollars from the target.
Due in the next session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast 1.9M, previous -2.09M
- US Fed Bowman Speech
Before the American session 4165.4 to 4140.7 (-24.7 dollars), range 27.2
Released during this session:
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- US Fed Bowman Speech
Major US inflation data is scheduled for 12:30 UTC, including Core Inflation Rate MoM forecast at 0.2%, Inflation Rate YoY expected at 3.6%, Core Inflation Rate YoY forecast at 2.5%, and MoM Inflation Rate expected at 0.6%.
Three standing bounce forecasts ended during the session. A bounce call issued on 13 October at 05:00 UTC failed at 07:00 UTC. At 10:00 UTC, a bounce call issued on 13 October at 04:00 UTC failed, and an earlier bounce forecast issued on 9 October at 02:00 UTC was dropped.
ECB President Lagarde and Fed Bowman both had speeches scheduled during the window. At the close, a bounce forecast issued on 11 September remained live, sitting 282.9 points from its target.
Due in the next session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- US CPI s.a
- US CPI — forecast 336.65, previous 334.98
- US Core Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.2%, previous 0.3%
- US Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 3.6%, previous 3.4%
- US Core Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.4%
- US Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.6%, previous 0.4%
Before the European session 4163.2 to 4165.5 (+2.3 dollars), range 26.0
Released during this session:
- US Fed Collins Speech
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
A live forecast issued on 13 October at 05:00 UTC for an upward bounce toward 4195.3 had not resolved by the close, with price sitting 29.8 points short of the target band.
In the session ahead, a major speech from ECB President Lagarde is scheduled at 08:30 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- US Fed Bowman Speech
13 October the day: 4171.4 to 4161.2 (-10.2 dollars), range 53.4
Before the American session 4195.4 to 4181.4 (-14.0 dollars), range 20.7
Released during this session:
- US Fed Waller Speech
US Existing Home Sales is scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC, with expectations set at 3.95M. Earlier in the session, a speech by Fed Governor Waller took place at 07:45 UTC.
A bounce forecast issued at 05:00 UTC targeting 4195.3 from a zone between 4152.9 and 4165.0 had not resolved at the 11:00 UTC close, sitting 13.9 dollars short of the target band.
Due in the next session:
- US ADP Employment Change Weekly
- US Existing Home Sales MoM
- US Existing Home Sales — forecast 3.95M, previous 3.93M
Before the European session 4169.2 to 4195.3 (+26.1 dollars), range 45.7
A new forecast was issued at 04:00 UTC targeting a bounce upward toward 4188.3 dollars, setting its entry zone between 4145.5 and 4157.8 dollars. At the end of the window, the forecast was still standing, with the price closing 7.0 dollars beyond the target level.
In the session ahead, a speech by Fed Governor Waller is scheduled for 07:45 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Waller Speech
12 October the day: 4193.3 to 4171.4 (-21.9 dollars), range 62.5
At the close 4177.1 to 4169.2 (-7.9 dollars), range 22.8
Released during this session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
Fed Hammack was scheduled to speak at 16:50 UTC during the session.
At the close, the upward bounce forecast issued on 9 October was still standing, with the price finishing 31.1 dollars away from the 4138.1 target band.
Before the American session 4194.3 to 4177.0 (-17.3 dollars), range 27.1
The upward bounce forecast issued on 9 October was still standing at 11:00 UTC, with the close finishing 38.9 dollars away from its 4138.1 target band.
Later in the American session, a speech by Fed Hammack is scheduled at 16:50 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
How the week ended
How the week ended
| Forecasts that ended this week | 4 |
|---|---|
| Reached the level they named | 0 |
| Ended without reaching it | 4 |
| Issued this week | 6 |
| Still standing on Sunday | 3 |
| Week open to close | 4193.3 to 4165.3 (-28.0 dollars) |
| Week range | 4073.3 to 4216.9 (143.6 dollars) |
The week
During the week of 12 to 18 October 2026, four forecasts for XAU/USD ended. None of these forecasts reached their target band, with all four ending in another manner.
XAU/USD opened at 4193.3 and closed at 4165.3, marking a change of -28.0 dollars. The price reached a high of 4216.9 and a low of 4073.3, covering a range of 143.6 dollars.
Six forecasts were issued throughout the week, and three remained open at the close. The latest live forecast calls for an up trend, setting the lower edge of the zone at 4140.7, the upper edge at 4154.4, and the target at 4189.4.
Every forecast that ended this week
| Issued | Direction | Corridor | Continuation | Invalidation | Reached | Ended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 11:00 | down | 4198.3 - 4209.8 | 4169.5 | bounce | 2026-10-15 02:00 | |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 | up | 4086.3 - 4101.1 | 4138.1 | bounce | 2026-10-14 10:00 | |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 | up | 4145.5 - 4157.8 | 4188.3 | bounce | 2026-10-14 10:00 | |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 | up | 4152.9 - 4165.0 | 4195.3 | bounce | 2026-10-14 07:00 |
On the calendar this week
- 12 October, 16:50 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 13 October, 07:45 UTC - US Fed Waller Speech
- 13 October, 12:15 UTC - US ADP Employment Change Weekly
- 13 October, 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales MoM
- 13 October, 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales
- 13 October, 17:00 UTC - US Fed Barkin Speech
- 13 October, 20:00 UTC - US Fed Collins Speech
- 14 October, 02:10 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- 14 October, 08:30 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- 14 October, 09:40 UTC - US Fed Bowman Speech
- 14 October, 11:00 UTC - US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US CPI s.a
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US CPI
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Core Inflation Rate MoM
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Inflation Rate YoY
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Core Inflation Rate YoY
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Inflation Rate MoM
- 14 October, 17:30 UTC - US Fed Barkin Speech
- 14 October, 21:00 UTC - US API Crude Oil Stock Change
- 15 October, 02:55 UTC - US Fed Bowman Speech
- 15 October, 09:00 UTC - EU Industrial Production MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US PPI MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales Control Group MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Core PPI MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Initial Jobless Claims
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales MoM
- 15 October, 14:00 UTC - US Business Inventories MoM
- 15 October, 15:30 UTC - US Atlanta Fed GDPNow
- 15 October, 16:00 UTC - US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
- 15 October, 16:00 UTC - US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- 15 October, 20:30 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 16 October, 03:30 UTC - US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
- 16 October, 09:00 UTC - EU Balance of Trade
- 16 October, 12:30 UTC - US Import Prices MoM
- 16 October, 12:30 UTC - US Export Prices MoM
- 16 October, 13:15 UTC - US Industrial Production MoM
- 16 October, 18:00 UTC - US Monthly Budget Statement
- 16 October, 20:00 UTC - US Net Long-term TIC Flows
- 16 October, 22:00 UTC - US Fed Goolsbee Speech
- 17 October, 05:00 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech