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XAU/USD forecast review, 2 to 8 November 2026

The last forecast of the week

Gold hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-11-06

Issued 2026-11-06 04:00 UTC, downward, from a zone between 4150.4 and 4171.5. The next level is 4097.5.

It had not resolved as of 2026-11-09 05:00 UTC: price had not reached its level.

Readings on this market have taken a median of 30 hours to reach the level they named, over the 48 that have.

Session by session

6 November the day: 4083.3 to 4069.5 (-13.8 dollars), range 79.5

At the close 4062.6 to 4065.7 (+3.1 dollars), range 51.3

Gold hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-11-06

Released during this session:

Earlier in the day at 03:00 UTC, an upward bounce forecast issued on 4 November ended as price dropped. A downward bounce forecast issued at 04:00 UTC was still standing at the close, sitting 31.8 dollars from its 4097.5 target band.

US Non Farm Payrolls arrived at 165K against a 65K forecast alongside a 4.1% Unemployment Rate against the 4.2% expected. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel later printed at 51 against a forecast of 48. Earlier in the day, EU Retail Sales MoM recorded -0.7% against a forecast of -0.1%.

Before the American session 4041.6 to 4062.7 (+21.1 dollars), range 42.1

Released during this session:

Major US economic data is scheduled ahead at 13:30 UTC, with Non Farm Payrolls expected at 65K and the Unemployment Rate forecast at 4.2%, followed by preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 15:00 UTC with a forecast of 48.2. Earlier in the session, EU Retail Sales MoM landed at -0.7% against a forecast of -0.1%, while a speech by Fed Williams was scheduled at 09:30 UTC.

At the 12:00 UTC close, a downward forecast issued at 04:00 UTC on a bounce leg was still standing. The call targets 4097.5 from a zone between 4150.4 and 4171.5, with price sitting 34.8 dollars away from the target level at the end of the window.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 4098.8 to 4041.5 (-57.3 dollars), range 71.0

Released during this session:

An upward bounce forecast issued on 4 November ended at 03:00 UTC as price dropped out of the setup without reaching its target.

A fresh downward bounce forecast was issued at 04:00 UTC, setting a target at 4097.5 dollars. At 06:00 UTC, price stood 56.0 dollars from that target.

In scheduled calendar events, Fed Logan Speech took place at 00:00 UTC, though no reading was available. Ahead of the session opening, EU Retail Sales figures are expected at 10:00 UTC alongside a speech from Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

5 November the day: 4063.2 to 4087.3 (+24.1 dollars), range 89.3

At the close 4133.2 to 4098.8 (-34.4 dollars), range 59.9

Gold hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-11-05

Released during this session:

US economic data released at 13:30 UTC showed preliminary Unit Labour Costs QoQ at -0.7% against a forecast of 0.6%, while Nonfarm Productivity QoQ printed at 3.6% above the 2.8% forecast. Initial Jobless Claims landed at 189K against an expected 196K.

At the close, the upward bounce forecast issued on 4 November had not resolved. Its target band at 3922.0 sat 176.8 dollars from the closing price, with the entry zone spanning 3829.7 to 3881.9.

Ahead in the early session, Fed Logan is scheduled to speak at 00:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 4114.3 to 4133.4 (+19.1 dollars), range 26.1

Released during this session:

Ahead of the US session, Initial Jobless Claims and preliminary Nonfarm Productivity figures are scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC, followed by scheduled speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Earlier in the morning window, the EU S&P Global Construction PMI was scheduled at 08:30 UTC, but no reading was available.

At 12:00 UTC, an upward bounce forecast issued on 4 November targeting 3922.0 was still standing, with the close sitting 211.4 dollars from the target level.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 4063.7 to 4114.3 (+50.6 dollars), range 89.3

The upward forecast issued on 4 November at 02:00 UTC with a target band at 3922.0 on a bounce leg had not resolved by the close of the window. Price ended the session 192.3 dollars from the target band.

Due in the next session:

4 November the day: 3930.8 to 4061.1 (+130.3 dollars), range 150.7

At the close 4041.5 to 4063.8 (+22.3 dollars), range 41.3

Released during this session:

An upward forecast issued on 3 November reached its target of 3960.7 dollars at 01:00 UTC, before this session opened.

During the session, major US data included the ISM Services PMI, which landed at 54.5 against a forecast of 54.8. Earlier in the day, the EU Flash Inflation Rate YoY was published at 4%, matching expectations. routine US prints included ADP Employment Change at 86K against a 69K forecast, and US Goods Trade Balance at -135.08B.

At the close, an upward forecast issued at 02:00 UTC was still standing. Predicting a bounce from between 3829.7 and 3881.9 dollars toward 3922.0 dollars, the move was 141.8 dollars from its target band at 21:00 UTC.

Before the American session 3997.6 to 4041.5 (+43.9 dollars), range 53.5

Released during this session:

Major economic calendar releases ahead of the US session feature the US ISM Services PMI scheduled for 15:00 UTC, with a forecast of 54.8. Earlier in the session, US ADP Employment Change is scheduled for 13:15 UTC with a forecast of 65K, followed by the US Balance of Trade print at 13:30 UTC expected at -108B.

Earlier in the day, the EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash print arrived at 10:00 UTC at 4%, matching expectations, while core annual inflation landed at 2.5%.

At the 12:00 UTC close, an upward forecast issued at 02:00 UTC targeting a bounce toward 3922.0 had not resolved, with price finishing the window 119.5 dollars from the target.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 3921.1 to 3997.5 (+76.4 dollars), range 89.9

Resolved here: the forecast issued 3 November at 14:00 reached its invalidation level, 3960.7, at 01:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

An upward forecast issued on 3 November reached its target at 01:00 UTC on a bounce leg. A new upward bounce forecast was subsequently issued at 02:00 UTC with a target band starting at 3922.0 dollars, and at the end of the session it was still standing with price 75.5 dollars away from the target.

Looking ahead to the coming session, major EU Flash Inflation Rate YoY figures are scheduled for release at 10:00 UTC, with forecasts expecting readings of 3.9% and 4.0%.

Due in the next session:

3 November the day: 3948.5 to 3929.6 (-18.9 dollars), range 75.6

At the close 3905.7 to 3921.1 (+15.4 dollars), range 72.1

Gold hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-11-03

Resolved here: the forecast issued 2 November at 15:00 reached its invalidation level, 3964.1, at 13:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 2 November at 17:00 reached its invalidation level, 3967.5, at 13:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

Two bullish bounce forecasts issued on 2 November reached their target bands at 13:00 UTC.

During the session, US JOLTs Job Openings landed at 7.523M against a forecast of 7.1M, while Factory Orders MoM printed at 1.8% against a 1.2% expectation. Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation recorded a reading of 0.5%. Earlier in the day, US Midterm Elections were scheduled with no reading available.

A fresh upward bounce forecast was issued at 14:00 UTC and remained standing at the close, where price was 39.6 dollars from the target band.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 3918.3 to 3905.8 (-12.5 dollars), range 31.5

Gold hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-11-03

US JOLTs Job Openings head the economic calendar ahead at 15:00 UTC, with market expectations set at 7.13M. Factory Orders MoM is also scheduled for release at the same time, carrying a forecast of 1.2%.

The upward bounce forecast issued at 17:00 UTC on 2 November was still standing at 12:00 UTC. At the end of the window, price remained 61.7 dollars away from the target at 3967.5.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 3945.8 to 3918.3 (-27.5 dollars), range 46.8

Released during this session:

An upward bounce forecast issued on 2 November at 17:00 UTC was still standing at the end of the session, targeting 3967.5. Price closed within the entry zone of 3907.6 to 3924.7, leaving the quote 49.2 dollars below the target.

The US Midterm Elections were on the calendar at 00:00 UTC, with no reading available for the event.

2 November the day: 3869.1 to 3946.4 (+77.3 dollars), range 101.0

At the close 3901.1 to 3945.8 (+44.7 dollars), range 74.0

Released during this session:

US ISM Manufacturing PMI landed at 55.5 against a forecast of 54.6. US Fed Goolsbee was also scheduled to speak during the window. Ahead on the calendar, US Midterm Elections are scheduled at 00:00 UTC.

Fifteen downward bounce forecasts issued on 30 October ended at 14:00 UTC: eight dropped to their targets, six were withdrawn, and one failed.

A new upward bounce forecast was issued at 17:00 UTC, identifying a zone between 3907.6 and 3924.7 with a target of 3967.5. At the close, it was still standing, with the price sitting 21.7 dollars from the target.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 3913.1 to 3901.1 (-12.0 dollars), range 25.6

Gold hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-11-02

US ISM Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for release at 15:00 UTC with an expected reading of 54.6, alongside the ISM Manufacturing Employment print. A speech by Fed Goolsbee is also scheduled at 16:15 UTC.

At the close, a downward bounce forecast issued on 30 October remained standing. The call targets 3874.6, leaving price 26.5 dollars from the target band heading into the US session.

Due in the next session:

How the week ended

How the week ended

Forecasts that ended this week19
Reached the level they named3
Ended without reaching it16
Issued this week5
Still standing on Sunday1
Week open to close3869.1 to 4069.5 (+200.4 dollars)
Week range3869.1 to 4146.8 (277.7 dollars)

The week

During the week of 2 to 8 November 2026, 19 forecasts concluded for XAU/USD. Of those settled forecasts, 3 reached their target band and 16 ended another way. A total of 5 forecasts were issued throughout the week, leaving 1 forecast still open at the end of Sunday.

XAU/USD opened the week at 3869.1 and closed at 4069.5, registering a change of 200.4 dollars. Trading recorded a high of 4146.8 and a low of 3869.1, bringing the overall range for the week to 277.7 dollars.

The latest forecast issued during the week called for a down trend, marking the lower edge of the zone at 4150.4, the upper edge of the zone at 4171.5, and the target at 4097.5.

Every forecast that ended this week

IssuedDirectionCorridorContinuationInvalidationReachedEnded
2026-11-04 02:00up3829.7 - 3881.93922.0bounce2026-11-06 03:00
2026-11-03 14:00up3902.8 - 3919.43960.7bounce2026-11-04 01:00
2026-11-02 15:00up3903.7 - 3920.93964.1bounce2026-11-03 13:00
2026-11-02 17:00up3907.6 - 3924.73967.5bounce2026-11-03 13:00
2026-10-30 01:00down4041.6 - 4056.34004.8bounce2026-11-02 14:00
2026-10-30 03:00down4034.5 - 4049.43997.4bounce2026-11-02 14:00
2026-10-30 04:00down4030.4 - 4045.23993.6bounce2026-11-02 14:00
2026-10-30 06:00down4028.5 - 4043.33991.2bounce2026-11-02 14:00
2026-10-30 07:00down4019.8 - 4034.63982.7bounce2026-11-02 14:00
2026-10-30 08:00down4012.7 - 4027.83974.9bounce2026-11-02 14:00
2026-10-30 12:00down4005.1 - 4020.63966.2bounce2026-11-02 14:00
2026-10-30 13:00down3993.2 - 4008.83954.2bounce2026-11-02 14:00
2026-10-30 14:00down3961.4 - 3977.83920.4bounce2026-11-02 14:00
2026-10-30 15:00down3959.6 - 3976.43917.5bounce2026-11-02 14:00
2026-10-30 16:00down3941.1 - 3958.33898.1bounce2026-11-02 14:00
2026-10-30 17:00down3938.7 - 3955.73896.2bounce2026-11-02 14:00
2026-10-30 18:00down3926.0 - 3943.03883.5bounce2026-11-02 14:00
2026-10-30 19:00down3921.6 - 3938.33879.8bounce2026-11-02 14:00
2026-10-30 21:00down3916.2 - 3932.83874.6bounce2026-11-02 14:00

On the calendar this week

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