BTC/USD forecast review, 17 to 23 August 2026

23 August the day: 76838.80 to 77825.10 (+986.3 dollars), range 2479.3

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.

22 August the day: 78478.70 to 76843.30 (-1635.4 dollars), range 2329.0

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.

21 August the day: 72715.70 to 78485.10 (+5769.4 dollars), range 7024.8

At the close 77773.10 to 76984.80 (-788.3 dollars), range 1656.0

Released during this session:

• 13:45 UTC US S&P Global Services PMI Flash — forecast 54
• 13:45 UTC US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — forecast 53.9
• 13:45 UTC US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
• 14:00 UTC EU Consumer Confidence Flash — -15.5 against a forecast of -16.3 (above forecast), previous -15.9

An upward forecast was published at 11:00 UTC from a zone between 76692.7 and 77541.1 dollars, setting a continuation target of 80848.0 dollars and an invalidation level at 75307.6 dollars. At the session close, the market stood 3863.2 dollars below the continuation target and 1677.2 dollars above invalidation.

During the session, US S&P Global Flash PMI readings for Services, Manufacturing, and Composite were released at 13:45 UTC, alongside the EU Consumer Confidence Flash print at 14:00 UTC.

Before the American session 74993.90 to 77750.80 (+2756.9 dollars), range 4618.4

Resolved here: the forecast issued 21 August at 04:00 reached its continuation level, 77122.74, at 08:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 08:00 UTC EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — forecast 51.8
• 08:00 UTC EU S&P Global Services PMI Flash — forecast 51.5
• 08:00 UTC EU S&P Global Composite PMI Flash — forecast 51.7
• 09:00 UTC EU Negotiated Wage Growth — 2.44%, previous 2.56%

An upward forecast issued at 04:00 UTC resolved at 08:00 UTC when price reached its continuation target of 77122.7 dollars.

During the six-hour window, the market covered a range of 4618.4 dollars, equivalent to 4.6 times the one-hour average true range, moving from a low of 74844.5 to a high of 79462.9 before closing at 77750.8. European flash PMI figures landed at 08:00 UTC alongside the resolution, followed by EU Negotiated Wage Growth data at 09:00 UTC.

Looking ahead to the American session, US flash PMI releases are scheduled for 13:45 UTC, followed by the EU flash Consumer Confidence reading at 14:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 13:45 UTC US S&P Global Services PMI Flash — forecast 54
• 13:45 UTC US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — forecast 53.9
• 13:45 UTC US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
• 14:00 UTC EU Consumer Confidence Flash — forecast -16.3, previous -15.9

Before the European session 72620.80 to 74956.50 (+2335.7 dollars), range 3300.4

Resolved here: the forecast issued 20 August at 13:00 reached its continuation level, 73608.78, at 00:00 UTC.

An upward forecast issued at 13:00 UTC on 20 August resolved at 00:00 UTC on 21 August, when price reached its continuation target of 73608.8 dollars.

A fresh upward forecast was issued at 04:00 UTC on 21 August from a corridor between 72970.0 and 73668.7 dollars. It sets a continuation target of 77122.7 dollars and an invalidation level at 71585.8 dollars. At the close of the window, the distance to the continuation target stood at 2166.2 dollars, with 3370.7 dollars to the break level.

Due in the next session:

• 08:00 UTC EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — forecast 51.8
• 08:00 UTC EU S&P Global Services PMI Flash — forecast 51.5
• 08:00 UTC EU S&P Global Composite PMI Flash — forecast 51.7
• 09:00 UTC EU Negotiated Wage Growth

20 August the day: 69807.60 to 72720.90 (+2913.3 dollars), range 4190.4

At the close 71902.70 to 72599.50 (+696.8 dollars), range 1862.7

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — 47.4 against a forecast of 25 (above forecast), previous 41.4
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 206K against a forecast of 210K (below forecast), previous 212K

An upward forecast was issued at 13:00 UTC from a zone between 70067.9 and 70676.1 dollars, setting a continuation target of 73608.8 dollars and an invalidation level at 68887.7 dollars. At the session close, price sat 1009.3 dollars below the target and 3711.8 dollars above the invalidation level.

Two US economic releases landed at 12:30 UTC: the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Initial Jobless Claims. Across the nine-hour window, price traversed a range of 1862.7 dollars, reaching a high of 72935.9 dollars and a low of 71073.2 dollars.

Before the American session 69396.70 to 71905.10 (+2508.4 dollars), range 3165.7

Resolved here: the forecast issued 19 August at 18:00 reached its continuation level, 70619.18, at 08:00 UTC.

An upward forecast issued at 18:00 UTC on 19 August resolved at 08:00 UTC when BTCUSD reached its continuation target of 70619.2 dollars.

Looking ahead, US Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index are scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — forecast 25, previous 41.4
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 210K, previous 212K

Before the European session 68410.90 to 69433.40 (+1022.5 dollars), range 1696.6

An upward forecast issued on 2026-08-19 at 18:00:00 UTC remains active, targeting a continuation level of 70619.2 and an invalidation level of 65995.7. The signal was published from a zone between 67151.5 and 67593.3. The window closed with price sitting 1185.8 dollars from the continuation target and 3437.7 dollars from invalidation.

Across 1186 tracked forecasts for this market, the strategy has reached its initial target ahead of invalidation 64% of the time.

19 August the day: 64555.30 to 69654.30 (+5099.0 dollars), range 5944.4

At the close 64398.30 to 68407.60 (+4009.3 dollars), range 5101.2

Resolved here: the forecast issued 18 August at 17:00 reached its continuation level, 65486.48, at 14:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.77%, previous 6.77%
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 4.405M against a forecast of -0.6M (above forecast), previous 17.422M
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 0.688M against a forecast of -1.2M (above forecast), previous -0.968M
• 18:00 UTC US FOMC Minutes

An upward forecast issued on 18 August reached its continuation target of 65486.5 dollars at 14:00 UTC.

US FOMC Minutes were released at 18:00 UTC. A fresh upward forecast was issued at the same hour from the 67151.5–67593.3 dollar zone, calling for a move to 70619.2 dollars with an invalidation level at 65995.7 dollars. By the end of the session, the price stood 2211.6 dollars below the target and 2411.9 dollars above the invalidation point.

18 August the day: 64326.40 to 64560.10 (+233.7 dollars), range 1049.7

At the close 64102.90 to 64603.80 (+500.9 dollars), range 1049.7

Resolved here: the forecast issued 13 August at 19:00 reached its invalidation level, 64532.09, at 14:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 9.5K, previous 8.25K
• 12:30 UTC US Housing Starts MoM — -12.4%, previous 19.7%
• 12:30 UTC US Housing Starts — 1.239M against a forecast of 1.35M (below forecast), previous 1.415M
• 12:30 UTC US Building Permits Prel — 1.443M against a forecast of 1.37M (above forecast), previous 1.374M
• 12:30 UTC US Import Prices MoM — -0.4% against a forecast of 0.1% (below forecast), previous -0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Building Permits MoM Prel — 5%, previous -2.6%
• 12:30 UTC US Export Prices MoM — -1.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (below forecast), previous -0.7%
• 13:15 UTC US Industrial Production MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.3%
• 14:00 UTC US Pending Home Sales YoY — -2.2%, previous -0.3%
• 14:00 UTC US Pending Home Sales MoM — -2.3% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous -4.8%

A downward forecast issued on 13 August resolved at 14:00 UTC when price reached the invalidation level of 64532.1 dollars.

A new upward forecast was subsequently published at 17:00 UTC from a zone between 64017.7 and 64281.0 dollars. The setup projects a continuation target of 65486.5 dollars alongside an invalidation target of 63528.2 dollars. By the end of the window, price sat 882.7 dollars short of the bullish target and 1075.6 dollars above invalidation.

During the session, major US data releases for Housing Starts and Building Permits Prel landed at 12:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change

17 August the day: 62797.70 to 64291.10 (+1493.4 dollars), range 1942.9

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.