BTC/USD forecast review, 24 to 30 August 2026

30 August the day: 78099.1 to 78642.3 (+543.2 dollars), range 1470.4

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.

29 August the day: 77359.3 to 78152.6 (+793.3 dollars), range 1046.5

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.

28 August the day: 80179.0 to 77354.8 (-2824.2 dollars), range 4606.2

At the close 79527.3 to 77557.9 (-1969.4 dollars), range 2983.0

Released during this session:

• 13:45 UTC US Chicago PMI — 47.1 against a forecast of 58.3 (below forecast), previous 57.6
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final — 51.7 against a forecast of 51 (above forecast), previous 55.2
• 14:00 UTC US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
• 14:00 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prel — -79K, previous -911K
• 16:30 UTC US Fed Goolsbee Speech

An upward forecast issued at 04:00 UTC resolved to the downside at 18:00 UTC after reaching its break level. Earlier in the day, a prior forecast issued at 20:00 UTC on 27 August was withdrawn at 02:00 UTC due to a new extreme before a pull-back occurred.

In economic data, the preliminary US Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision was released at -79K, while Fed Chair Warsh delivered a speech at 14:00 UTC. The US Chicago PMI landed at 47.1 against a 58.3 forecast, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final registered at 51.7 versus a 51 expected reading. Fed Goolsbee also spoke at 16:30 UTC. Earlier in the day, EU Economic Sentiment arrived at 98.4 against a 97.5 forecast.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

Before the American session 79608.2 to 79549.5 (-58.7 dollars), range 1010.8

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Economic Sentiment — 98.4 against a forecast of 97.5 (above forecast), previous 97.1

Major US releases are scheduled for 14:00 UTC, including a speech by Fed Chair Warsh and the preliminary Non Farm Payrolls annual revision, alongside the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading. Chicago PMI is also expected earlier at 13:45 UTC.

During the European session, EU Economic Sentiment landed at 98.4, exceeding the expected 97.5. No forecasts resolved or were active during the window.

Due in the next session:

• 13:45 UTC US Chicago PMI — forecast 58.3, previous 57.6
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final — forecast 51, previous 55.2
• 14:00 UTC US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
• 14:00 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prel
• 16:30 UTC US Fed Goolsbee Speech

Before the European session 79890.7 to 79610.3 (-280.4 dollars), range 1876.6

Released during this session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

An upward forecast issued at 20:00 UTC was still standing at the 05:00 UTC close, targeting a continuation at 81903.2 dollars against an invalidation level at 77585.3 dollars. By the end of the window, the price sat 2292.9 dollars short of the continuation target and 2025.0 dollars above the invalidation mark.

During the session, the Jackson Hole Symposium was scheduled on the US calendar. Looking ahead, EU Economic Sentiment is due at 09:00 UTC with an expected reading of 97.5.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Economic Sentiment — forecast 97.5, previous 97.1

27 August the day: 78679.8 to 80177.0 (+1497.2 dollars), range 2313.3

At the close 79586.2 to 79889.5 (+303.3 dollars), range 1946.0

Released during this session:

• 11:30 UTC EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv — 0.7%, previous -0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 203K against a forecast of 208K (below forecast), previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — 1.3% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Goods Trade Balance Adv — -118.8B against a forecast of -99B (below forecast), previous -101.41B

An upward forecast issued at 12:00 UTC was withdrawn at 16:00 UTC after the market set a new extreme before pulling back. Earlier in the morning, a downward call from the previous day's late session was withdrawn at 09:00 UTC on a trend flip.

Across the US economic releases, Initial Jobless Claims printed at 203K against an expected 208K, while Wholesale Inventories grew by 1.3% compared to the 0.1% forecast. The Goods Trade Balance posted a deficit of -118.8B against a forecast of -99B.

At the close, no forecasts were active. The Jackson Hole Symposium was scheduled on the calendar for the day ahead.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

Before the American session 78762.5 to 79586.9 (+824.4 dollars), range 1967.4

The bullish forecast issued on 21 August remained standing at the end of the session, with price closing 1261.1 dollars short of the 80848.0 target and 4279.3 dollars above the 75307.6 invalidation level.

Ahead in the upcoming session, US economic releases include Initial Jobless Claims alongside preliminary trade and inventory data.

Due in the next session:

• 11:30 UTC EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 208K, previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv — forecast 0.1%, previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Goods Trade Balance Adv — forecast -99B, previous -101.41B

26 August the day: 78494.8 to 78678.8 (+184.0 dollars), range 1637.5

At the close 78704.0 to 78424.1 (-279.9 dollars), range 1170.4

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.78%, previous 6.77%
• 12:30 UTC US PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous -0.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.6% (below forecast), previous 1.1%
• 12:30 UTC US GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 3.6%
• 12:30 UTC US PCE Price Index YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.7%
• 12:30 UTC US Corporate Profits QoQ Prel — 8.2%, previous 0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Personal Spending MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.1% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Personal Income MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est — 1.5% against a forecast of 1.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods Orders MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Core PCE Price Index MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.2% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -2.536M against a forecast of -0.7M (below forecast), previous 0.688M
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 0.095M against a forecast of 0.6M (below forecast), previous 4.405M
• 15:45 UTC US Fed Barkin Speech

The session brought a 1170.4-dollar range, spanning more than two hourly ATRs. A series of major US economic data prints landed at 12:30 UTC—including GDP Growth Rate, Personal Spending, Personal Income, Durable Goods Orders, and the Core PCE Price Index—followed by a speech from Fed official Barkin at 15:45 UTC.

At the close at 20:00 UTC, the upward forecast issued on 21 August had not resolved. BTC/USD finished 2423.9 dollars below the 80848.0 continuation target and 3116.5 dollars above the 75307.6 invalidation level.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US Jackson Hole Symposium

25 August the day: 78910.8 to 78517.3 (-393.5 dollars), range 3438.6

Before the European session 78735.4 to 80307.3 (+1571.9 dollars), range 2751.0

The session covered a range of 2751.0 dollars, equivalent to 3.75 times the hourly ATR.

At the close, the bullish forecast issued on 21 August sitting in the 76692.7–77541.1 zone was 540.7 dollars away from its continuation target at 80848.0 and 4999.7 dollars above its invalidation level at 75307.6.

24 August the day: 77829.2 to 78952.4 (+1123.2 dollars), range 3361.7

At the close 77603.3 to 78735.9 (+1132.6 dollars), range 2592.8

Resolved here: the forecast issued 24 August at 00:00 reached its continuation level, 78865.2, at 12:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Chicago Fed National Activity Index — -0.08, previous 0.06
• 17:00 UTC US Treasury Secretary Bessent Speech

The session expanded across a range of 2592.8 dollars, reaching a high of 79988.0. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index landed at 12:30 UTC, followed by a speech from US Treasury Secretary Bessent at 18:00 UTC.

At the 20:00 UTC close, the upward forecast issued on 21 August 2026 was still standing. The period ended with the price 2112.1 dollars below the 80848.0 continuation target and 3428.3 dollars above the 75307.6 invalidation level.

Before the American session 76889.8 to 77597.6 (+707.8 dollars), range 1204.8

The session spanned a range of 1204.8 dollars, equal to 2.27 times the hourly ATR.

An upward forecast issued on 21 August from the 76692.7–77541.1 corridor was still standing at 11:00 UTC. At the close, price sat 3250.4 dollars below the continuation target at 80848.0 and 2290.0 dollars above the invalidation level at 75307.6.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Before the European session 77322.5 to 76893.1 (-429.4 dollars), range 1406.2

The session spanned a 1406.2 dollar range, covering 2.71 average true ranges.

At the close of the window, an upward forecast issued on 21 August at 11:00 UTC was still standing. The price finished 3954.9 dollars below the 80848.0 bullish target and 1585.5 dollars above the 75307.6 invalidation level.