BTC/USD forecast review, 31 August to 6 September 2026

6 September the day: 79950.7 to 79936.5 (-14.2 dollars), range 892.2

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.

4 September the day: 81588.9 to 79647.9 (-1941.0 dollars), range 3012.7

At the close 81147.7 to 79758.2 (-1389.5 dollars), range 2804.4

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls — 162K against a forecast of 56K (above forecast), previous 21K
• 12:30 UTC US Unemployment Rate — 4.1% against a forecast of 4.1% (in line with forecast), previous 4.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.3% (in line with forecast), previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings YoY — 3.1% against a forecast of 3% (above forecast), previous 3.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Participation Rate — 61.6%, previous 61.4%

A bullish forecast issued at midnight was withdrawn at 14:00 UTC following a trend flip. No forecast was standing at the close.

In macroeconomic data, US Non-Farm Payrolls printed at 162K against a 56K forecast, while the US Unemployment Rate held at 4.1%. Earlier in the day, European Retail Sales MoM landed at -0.6% against an expected 0.3%.

Before the American session 81064.2 to 81147.6 (+83.4 dollars), range 838.3

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Retail Sales MoM — -0.6% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.2%

Major US labor data is scheduled for 12:30 UTC, with Non Farm Payrolls expected at 56K and the Unemployment Rate forecasted at 4.1%.

In the European morning, EU Retail Sales MoM reported a contraction of -0.6%, below the forecasted 0.3%.

The upward forecast issued at 00:00 UTC remained active at 11:00 UTC, positioned between its target level at 83393.8 dollars and invalidation at 78917.0 dollars.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls — forecast 56K, previous 21K
• 12:30 UTC US Unemployment Rate — forecast 4.1%, previous 4.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings YoY — forecast 3%, previous 3.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Participation Rate

Before the European session 81757.1 to 81064.7 (-692.4 dollars), range 1640.7

Resolved here: the forecast issued 3 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 80668.7, at 02:00 UTC.

Ahead of the European session, EU Retail Sales MoM is scheduled for release at 09:00 UTC, with expectations set at 0.3%.

Trading across the overnight window covered a 1640.7 span, expanding to 3.03 times the hourly average true range.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%

3 September the day: 77235.1 to 81595.8 (+4360.7 dollars), range 5368.5

At the close 77705.6 to 81755.2 (+4049.6 dollars), range 4154.7

Resolved here: the forecast issued 30 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 79703.9, at 14:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 206K against a forecast of 205K (above forecast), previous 204K
• 12:30 UTC US Exports — 310.7B, previous 314.7B
• 12:30 UTC US Imports — 399.3B, previous 388.5B
• 12:30 UTC US Balance of Trade — -88.6B against a forecast of -90B (above forecast), previous -71.2B
• 12:30 UTC US Fed Waller Speech
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Services PMI — 55.4 against a forecast of 54.3 (above forecast), previous 54.1
• 19:00 UTC US Fed Hammack Speech

A downward forecast issued on 28 August was withdrawn at 15:00 UTC following a trend flip. The call ended without reaching its entry zone or target after price moved through the 80658.5 dollar invalidation level, counting against the rule's record.

On the macroeconomic calendar, US ISM Services PMI released at 55.4 against a 54.3 forecast, while Initial Jobless Claims landed at 206K compared to the expected 205K. Scheduled speeches by Fed officials Waller and Hammack carried no economic readings. No live forecast was active at the close.

What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 76040.7 on 11 September at 12:00 UTC.

Before the American session 77726.1 to 77703.8 (-22.3 dollars), range 1095.0

Resolved here: the forecast issued 1 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 78071.2, at 07:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 2 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 77931.8, at 07:00 UTC.

Major economic data ahead of the American session includes the major US ISM Services PMI release scheduled for 14:00 UTC, with a forecast of 54.3. Initial Jobless Claims are also due at 12:30 UTC with an expected reading of 205K, alongside a scheduled speech by Fed Waller.

The downward forecast issued on 28 August was still standing at 11:00 UTC. The window ended with price 2133.7 dollars away from the continuation target of 75570.1 and 2954.7 dollars from the invalidation mark at 80658.5.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 205K, previous 204K
• 12:30 UTC US Exports
• 12:30 UTC US Imports
• 12:30 UTC US Balance of Trade — forecast -90B, previous -71.2B
• 12:30 UTC US Fed Waller Speech
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Services PMI — forecast 54.3, previous 54.1

2 September the day: 77156.8 to 77259.8 (+103.0 dollars), range 1543.4

Before the European session 77250.6 to 77520.8 (+270.2 dollars), range 1106.1

Released during this session:

• 20:50 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -2.6M against a forecast of -0.8M (below forecast), previous 4.2M

At the close of the window at 05:00 UTC, the downward forecast issued on 28 August was still standing, with price sitting 1950.7 dollars above the continuation target of 75570.1 and 3137.7 dollars below the invalidation level of 80658.5.

During the session, the US API crude oil stock change was reported at -2.6M compared to the expected -0.8M.

1 September the day: 78957.6 to 77174.4 (-1783.2 dollars), range 2833.4

Before the American session 78699.5 to 77962.6 (-736.9 dollars), range 1496.0

Resolved here: the forecast issued 31 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 78032.6, at 08:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 1 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 78223.7, at 08:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash — 2.4% against a forecast of 2.5% (below forecast), previous 2.5%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate MoM Flash — 0.4%, previous 0.2%
• 09:00 UTC EU Unemployment Rate — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 6.4%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash — 3.3% against a forecast of 3.3% (in line with forecast), previous 2.9%

Two major US economic releases are scheduled for 14:00 UTC: JOLTs Job Openings, expected at 7.3M, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI, expected at 55.2. A speech by Fed Governor Barr is also scheduled for 13:05 UTC.

Earlier in the window, Eurozone inflation data arrived at 09:00 UTC, with flash YoY Inflation Rate landing at 3.3% alongside a 2.4% core reading against a 2.5% forecast.

At the end of the session, the downward forecast issued on 28 August remained active. At 11:00 UTC, price stood 2392.5 dollars above the 75570.1 target level and 2695.9 dollars below the 80658.5 invalidation level.

Due in the next session:

• 13:05 UTC US Fed Barr Speech
• 14:00 UTC US JOLTs Job Openings — forecast 7.3M, previous 7.182M
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Manufacturing PMI — forecast 55.2, previous 55.6
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Manufacturing Employment

Before the European session 78884.8 to 78698.5 (-186.3 dollars), range 1022.3

The EU Flash Inflation Rate YoY reading is expected at 09:00 UTC, with a forecast of 3.3% compared to the previous 2.9%.

At the end of the window at 05:00 UTC, the downward forecast issued on 28 August remained standing. The close sat 3128.4 dollars away from its 75570.1 target and 1960.0 dollars from the 80658.5 invalidation level.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.5%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate MoM Flash
• 09:00 UTC EU Unemployment Rate — forecast 6.3%, previous 6.4%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash — forecast 3.3%, previous 2.9%

31 August the day: 78646.3 to 78908.4 (+262.1 dollars), range 2231.4

At the close 78651.2 to 78870.9 (+219.7 dollars), range 1584.7

Released during this session:

• 14:30 UTC US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index — 11.6, previous 1.3

At the close at 20:00 UTC, the downward forecast issued on 28 August was still standing. The price finished 3300.8 dollars above the 75570.1 target level and 1787.6 dollars from the 80658.5 invalidation line.

During the session, the US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index was reported at 14:30 UTC with a reading of 11.6, following the previous figure of 1.3.

Before the American session 77565.0 to 78647.9 (+1082.9 dollars), range 1323.2

Resolved here: the forecast issued 31 August at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 78252.5, at 07:00 UTC.

A downward forecast issued at 19:00 UTC on 28 August was still standing at 11:00 UTC. It holds a continuation target at 75570.1 dollars and an invalidation level at 80658.5 dollars.

Ahead in the American session, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is scheduled for 14:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 14:30 UTC US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

Before the European session 78854.2 to 77566.0 (-1288.2 dollars), range 1911.8

The session spanned a 1911.8 dollar range as BTC/USD moved down 1288.2 dollars to close at 77566.0.

At 05:00 UTC, the downward forecast issued on 28 August at 19:00 UTC was still standing. At the close of the window, price sat 1995.9 dollars above the 75570.1 target and 3092.5 dollars below the 80658.5 invalidation level.