BTC/USD forecast review, 12 to 18 October 2026
The last forecast of the week
Issued 2026-10-18 14:00 UTC, downward, from a zone between 82788.8 and 83214.2. The next level is 81947.0.
It had not resolved as of 2026-10-19 04:00 UTC: price had not reached its level.
Readings on this market have taken a median of 30 hours to reach the level they named, over the 90 that have.
Session by session
18 October the day: 80981.1 to 81129.1 (+148.0 dollars), range 1603.9
Before the European session 81501.6 to 81695.3 (+193.7 dollars), range 1265.0
A downward forecast looking for a bounce was issued at 21:00 UTC on 17 October, targeting 81210.8 with an entry zone between 82070.9 and 82753.9.
At the 05:00 UTC close, the forecast remained active, with price standing 484.5 dollars above the target level.
What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 81210.8 on 18 October at 13:00 UTC.
17 October the day: 81496.2 to 81043.6 (-452.6 dollars), range 1000.5
Before the American session 81422.9 to 81530.7 (+107.8 dollars), range 285.6
Released during this session:
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
The downward bounce forecast issued at 19:00 UTC on 16 October was still standing at 11:00 UTC, with price sitting 517.7 dollars away from the 81013.0 target.
Earlier in the session, ECB President Lagarde was scheduled to speak at 05:00 UTC.
Before the European session 81470.7 to 81351.2 (-119.5 dollars), range 480.5
Released during this session:
- US Net Long-term TIC Flows — 279.2B against a forecast of 75.2B (above forecast), previous -27.9B
- US Fed Goolsbee Speech
A downward forecast issued prior to the window remained standing at 05:00 UTC, with the close sitting 338.2 dollars above the 81013.0 target band.
During the session, US Net Long-term TIC Flows printed at 279.2B against a 75.2B forecast, alongside a scheduled speech from Fed's Goolsbee. Ahead in the next session, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 05:00 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
16 October the day: 82337.7 to 81564.9 (-772.8 dollars), range 2127.2
At the close 82110.3 to 81473.2 (-637.1 dollars), range 2127.2
Resolved here: the forecast issued 14 October at 18:00 reached its invalidation level, 81477.4, at 15:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US Import Prices MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.8% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
- US Export Prices MoM — 2.2% against a forecast of 1% (above forecast), previous 1.2%
- US Industrial Production MoM — 0.7% against a forecast of 0.4% (above forecast), previous 0.1%
- US Monthly Budget Statement — -27B against a forecast of -29B (above forecast), previous -167B
A downward forecast resolved during the session as price reached its target on a bounce leg. Later in the window, at 19:00 UTC, a fresh downward forecast was issued, also on a bounce leg.
Earlier in the day, Fed Chair Warsh spoke as scheduled, though no reading is available for the event. US economic releases in the window included Import Prices MoM at 1.1% against a 0.8% forecast, Export Prices MoM at 2.2% against a 1% forecast, and Industrial Production MoM at 0.7% against a 0.4% forecast.
Due in the next session:
- US Net Long-term TIC Flows — forecast 75.2B, previous -27.9B
- US Fed Goolsbee Speech
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
Before the American session 82029.0 to 82114.6 (+85.6 dollars), range 591.6
Released during this session:
- EU Balance of Trade — -16.1B, previous 10.7B
The downward forecast issued at 21:00 UTC on 15 October was still standing at 11:00 UTC. Tracking a bounce leg toward a target of 82018.8, the move ended the session with price 95.8 dollars above that level.
Ahead in the American session, US Import Prices MoM and Export Prices MoM are scheduled at 12:30 UTC, with US Industrial Production MoM expected at 13:15 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Import Prices MoM — forecast 0.8%, previous 0.5%
- US Export Prices MoM — forecast 1%, previous 1.2%
- US Industrial Production MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%
Before the European session 82276.9 to 82053.8 (-223.1 dollars), range 920.8
Released during this session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
- US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
A downward forecast with a bounce leg was issued during the window, establishing a zone between 83454.0 and 84028.1 toward a target at 82018.8. At the close of the session, the call was still standing, with price 35.0 dollars away from the target band.
The window included a major scheduled speech by Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC. Ahead in the European session, EU Balance of Trade data is expected at 09:00 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- EU Balance of Trade
15 October the day: 81685.7 to 82310.7 (+625.0 dollars), range 2864.1
At the close 80941.4 to 82279.7 (+1338.3 dollars), range 2864.1
Released during this session:
- US PPI MoM — 1.3% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — 20.9 against a forecast of 28.4 (below forecast), previous 37.8
- US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — 0.1% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 1.2%
- US Core PPI MoM — 0.7% against a forecast of 0.3% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
- US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — 25.5 against a forecast of 10.3 (above forecast), previous 7.6
- US Initial Jobless Claims — 199K against a forecast of 200K (below forecast), previous 198K
- US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — 0.9% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 1.4%
- US Retail Sales MoM — 0.8% against a forecast of 0.3% (above forecast), previous 1.3%
- US Business Inventories MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.9%
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — 3.6% against a forecast of 3.6% (in line with forecast), previous 3.6%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 3.518M against a forecast of -0.5M (above forecast), previous 0.382M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -8.557M against a forecast of -0.3M (below forecast), previous -3.186M
US PPI MoM landed at 12:30 UTC at 1.3% against the 0.5% forecast, alongside US Retail Sales MoM at 0.8% against a 0.3% forecast.
At the close, the bounce forecast issued on 14 October at 18:00 UTC toward 81477.4 had not resolved. Looking ahead, a speech from Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled for 03:30 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
- US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
Before the American session 81494.7 to 80936.9 (-557.8 dollars), range 1202.2
Released during this session:
- EU Industrial Production MoM — -0.5% against a forecast of 0% (below forecast), previous -0.3%
Major US economic releases are scheduled ahead at 12:30 UTC, led by PPI MoM, expected at 0.5%, and Retail Sales MoM, expected at 0.3%. Earlier in the session, EU Industrial Production MoM landed at -0.5% against an expected 0%.
At the close of the session at 11:00 UTC, a down-trend bounce forecast issued on 14 October at 18:00 UTC was still standing, with price sitting 540.5 dollars away from its target of 81477.4.
Due in the next session:
- US PPI MoM — forecast 0.5%, previous 0.5%
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — forecast 28.4, previous 37.8
- US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 1.2%
- US Core PPI MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%
- US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — forecast 10.3, previous 7.6
- US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 200K, previous 198K
- US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — forecast 0.5%, previous 1.4%
- US Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 1.3%
- US Business Inventories MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.9%
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — forecast 3.6%, previous 3.6%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -0.5M, previous 0.382M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast -0.3M, previous -3.186M
Before the European session 81734.8 to 81496.9 (-237.9 dollars), range 1730.0
Released during this session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -11.1M against a forecast of 1.9M (below forecast), previous -2.09M
- US Fed Bowman Speech
A downward forecast issued at 18:00 UTC on 14 October on a bounce leg remained unresolved at the close, with price sitting 19.5 dollars above the 81477.4 target.
During the window, the US API crude oil stock change showed a reading of -11.1M against an expected 1.9M, and Fed Governor Bowman spoke at 02:55 UTC. Looking ahead to the European session, EU industrial production data is scheduled for release at 09:00 UTC with a forecast of 0%.
Due in the next session:
- EU Industrial Production MoM — forecast 0%, previous -0.3%
14 October the day: 83455.9 to 81673.8 (-1782.1 dollars), range 2645.9
At the close 83363.9 to 81727.5 (-1636.4 dollars), range 2442.3
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 7.5%, previous 7.49%
- US CPI s.a — 336.3, previous 334.13
- US CPI — 336.94 against a forecast of 336.65 (above forecast), previous 334.98
- US Core Inflation Rate MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
- US Inflation Rate YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.4%
- US Core Inflation Rate YoY — 2.6% against a forecast of 2.5% (above forecast), previous 2.4%
- US Inflation Rate MoM — 0.6% against a forecast of 0.6% (in line with forecast), previous 0.4%
- US Fed Barkin Speech
US inflation figures landed at 12:30 UTC, showing YoY Inflation Rate at 3.7% against a 3.6% forecast, and Core Inflation Rate YoY at 2.6% above the 2.5% expected figure. Core Inflation Rate MoM came in at 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast, while Inflation Rate MoM matched its 0.6% forecast.
Two upward bounce forecasts issued on 13 October failed at 15:00 UTC. A third bounce forecast from 13 October was withdrawn at 17:00 UTC.
A downward bounce forecast was issued at 18:00 UTC targeting 81477.4. At the close, it was still standing, with price sitting 250.1 dollars from the target.
Due in the next session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast 1.9M, previous -2.09M
- US Fed Bowman Speech
Before the American session 83661.5 to 83361.6 (-299.9 dollars), range 1117.0
Released during this session:
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- US Fed Bowman Speech
Major US inflation prints are scheduled for 12:30 UTC ahead of the American trading session. Key expectations include MoM Inflation Rate at 0.6% (previous 0.4%) and YoY Inflation Rate at 3.6% (previous 3.4%), while MoM Core Inflation Rate is expected at 0.2% and YoY Core Inflation Rate at 2.5%. Earlier in the session, speeches by ECB President Lagarde and Fed Bowman were scheduled at 08:30 UTC and 09:40 UTC respectively.
An upward bounce forecast issued on 13 October had not resolved at 11:00 UTC. The session closed with price 381.7 dollars away from the target band at 83743.3.
Due in the next session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- US CPI s.a
- US CPI — forecast 336.65, previous 334.98
- US Core Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.2%, previous 0.3%
- US Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 3.6%, previous 3.4%
- US Core Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.4%
- US Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.6%, previous 0.4%
Before the European session 83183.1 to 83668.2 (+485.1 dollars), range 841.3
Released during this session:
- US Fed Collins Speech
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
An upward forecast issued on 13 October at 08:00 UTC remained standing at the end of the window. The bounce call targets 83743.3, with the price closing the period 75.1 dollars short of that level.
Looking ahead to the upcoming session, another speech by ECB President Lagarde is scheduled for 08:30 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- US Fed Bowman Speech
13 October the day: 82478.4 to 83455.9 (+977.5 dollars), range 3136.6
Before the European session 82763.4 to 83327.4 (+564.0 dollars), range 2566.9
An earlier bounce forecast issued on 9 October was withdrawn at 22:00 UTC. At 01:00 UTC, a new down-trend bounce forecast was issued targeting 81320.3 dollars; at the close of the window, the price sat 2007.1 dollars from the target.
Fed Waller is scheduled to speak at 07:45 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Waller Speech
12 October the day: 83373.7 to 82450.7 (-923.0 dollars), range 2071.5
At the close 83395.8 to 82758.5 (-637.3 dollars), range 1237.6
Released during this session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
A bounce forecast issued on 11 October ended in failure at 18:00 UTC after the zone was broken.
An earlier bounce forecast from 9 October was still standing at the close, with price sitting 416.1 points away from its target band.
Fed Hammack was scheduled to speak at 16:50 UTC during the session.
Before the American session 84037.4 to 83398.8 (-638.6 dollars), range 1070.8
At 11:00 UTC, the bounce forecast issued at 21:00 UTC on 11 October was still standing. Its target band sits at 83789.0 above a zone between 82500.5 and 82878.0, and at the close price finished 390.2 points short of that target.
Fed Hammack is scheduled to speak later in the session at 16:50 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
Before the European session 83580.6 to 84034.4 (+453.8 dollars), range 891.0
An upward bounce forecast issued at 21:00 UTC on 11 October was still standing at 05:00 UTC, targeting 83789.0 dollars above a zone between 82500.5 and 82878.0.
How the week ended
How the week ended
| Forecasts that ended this week | 11 |
|---|---|
| Reached the level they named | 2 |
| Ended without reaching it | 9 |
| Issued this week | 14 |
| Still standing on Sunday | 5 |
| Week open to close | 83373.7 to 81129.1 (-2244.6 dollars) |
| Week range | 79684.3 to 84267.2 (4582.9 dollars) |
The week
During the week of 12 to 18 October 2026, 11 forecasts for BTC/USD settled. Of these, 2 reached their target band and 9 ended without reaching it. In addition, 14 new forecasts were issued during the week, with 5 remaining open at the close of Sunday.
BTC/USD opened at 83373.7 and closed at 81129.1, marking a change of -2244.6 dollars. The high reached 84267.2 and the low touched 79684.3, defining a weekly range of 4582.9 dollars.
The final forecast issued during the week projected a down trend with a target of 81947.0. It specified a zone with a lower edge of 82788.8 and an upper edge of 83214.2.
Every forecast that ended this week
| Issued | Direction | Corridor | Continuation | Invalidation | Reached | Ended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 21:00 | down | 82070.9 - 82753.9 | 81210.8 | bounce | 2026-10-18 13:00 | |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 | down | 82670.4 - 83147.6 | 81477.4 | bounce | 2026-10-16 15:00 | |
| 2026-10-13 06:00 | up | 81917.8 - 82392.6 | 83579.5 | bounce | 2026-10-14 17:00 | |
| 2026-10-13 07:00 | up | 82032.9 - 82499.8 | 83666.9 | bounce | 2026-10-14 15:00 | |
| 2026-10-13 08:00 | up | 82115.7 - 82580.7 | 83743.3 | bounce | 2026-10-14 15:00 | |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 | down | 83097.3 - 83514.2 | 82055.0 | bounce | 2026-10-13 05:00 | |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 | down | 82775.9 - 83196.1 | 81725.6 | bounce | 2026-10-13 05:00 | |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 | down | 83504.8 - 83941.7 | 82342.1 | bounce | 2026-10-13 05:00 | |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 | down | 82412.6 - 82849.5 | 81320.3 | bounce | 2026-10-13 04:00 | |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 | up | 81584.7 - 82038.9 | 83174.6 | bounce | 2026-10-12 22:00 | |
| 2026-10-11 21:00 | up | 82500.5 - 82878.0 | 83789.0 | bounce | 2026-10-12 18:00 |
On the calendar this week
- 12 October, 16:50 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 13 October, 07:45 UTC - US Fed Waller Speech
- 13 October, 12:15 UTC - US ADP Employment Change Weekly
- 13 October, 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales MoM
- 13 October, 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales
- 13 October, 17:00 UTC - US Fed Barkin Speech
- 13 October, 20:00 UTC - US Fed Collins Speech
- 14 October, 02:10 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- 14 October, 08:30 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- 14 October, 09:40 UTC - US Fed Bowman Speech
- 14 October, 11:00 UTC - US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US CPI s.a
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US CPI
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Core Inflation Rate MoM
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Inflation Rate YoY
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Core Inflation Rate YoY
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Inflation Rate MoM
- 14 October, 17:30 UTC - US Fed Barkin Speech
- 14 October, 21:00 UTC - US API Crude Oil Stock Change
- 15 October, 02:55 UTC - US Fed Bowman Speech
- 15 October, 09:00 UTC - EU Industrial Production MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US PPI MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales Control Group MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Core PPI MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Initial Jobless Claims
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales MoM
- 15 October, 14:00 UTC - US Business Inventories MoM
- 15 October, 15:30 UTC - US Atlanta Fed GDPNow
- 15 October, 16:00 UTC - US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
- 15 October, 16:00 UTC - US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- 15 October, 20:30 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 16 October, 03:30 UTC - US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
- 16 October, 09:00 UTC - EU Balance of Trade
- 16 October, 12:30 UTC - US Import Prices MoM
- 16 October, 12:30 UTC - US Export Prices MoM
- 16 October, 13:15 UTC - US Industrial Production MoM
- 16 October, 18:00 UTC - US Monthly Budget Statement
- 16 October, 20:00 UTC - US Net Long-term TIC Flows
- 16 October, 22:00 UTC - US Fed Goolsbee Speech
- 17 October, 05:00 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech