EUR/USD forecast review, 7 to 13 September 2026

13 September the day: 1.1594 to 1.1595 (+1.0 pips), range 5.0

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.

11 September the day: 1.1608 to 1.1597 (-11.0 pips), range 48.0

At the close 1.1592 to 1.1596 (+4.0 pips), range 46.0

Resolved here: the forecast issued 2 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1580, at 12:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 3 September at 12:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1570, at 12:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate YoY — 2.4% against a forecast of 2.4% (in line with forecast), previous 2.5%
• 12:30 UTC US CPI — 334.98 against a forecast of 334.85 (above forecast), previous 333.92
• 12:30 UTC US CPI s.a — 334.131, previous 332.81
• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate YoY — 3.4% against a forecast of 3.4% (in line with forecast), previous 3.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — 47.8 against a forecast of 51 (below forecast), previous 51.7
• 14:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
• 18:00 UTC US Monthly Budget Statement — -167B against a forecast of -404B (above forecast), previous -432B

Four forecasts resolved during the session. At 11:00 UTC, two bounce targets at 1.1591 and 1.1593 were reached, completing calls issued on 4 September and 10 September. At 13:00 UTC, a bounce target of 1.1580 from 2 September and a reversal target of 1.1570 from 3 September were also reached.

On the economic calendar, major US inflation releases landed at 12:30 UTC, where Core Inflation Rate MoM printed at 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast, while the YoY core reading matched expectations at 2.4% and headline YoY inflation landed at 3.4%. Later at 14:00 UTC, preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment crossed at 47.8 against a forecast of 51, alongside a scheduled speech by ECB President Lagarde.

At the close, a reversal forecast issued on 27 August targeting 1.1672 had not resolved, sitting 76.0 pips from the target level.

Before the American session 1.1604 to 1.1592 (-12.0 pips), range 24.0

Resolved here: the forecast issued 4 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1591, at 10:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 10 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1593, at 10:00 UTC.

Two bounce leg forecasts reached their targets at 10:00 UTC. The earlier call, issued on 4 September targeting 1.1591, and a second issued on 10 September targeting 1.1593, both resolved as price reached their respective levels.

Looking ahead to the American session, major US inflation prints arrive at 12:30 UTC, with year-on-year Core Inflation Rate expected at 2.4% and the headline Inflation Rate expected at 3.4%. Month-on-month figures are expected at 0.2% for core and 0.4% for headline CPI. Later at 14:00 UTC, the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading is scheduled, with a forecast of 51.

At the close, an earlier upside reversal forecast issued on 3 September targeting 1.1570 remained standing, with the market 22.0 pips from the target.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 2.4%, previous 2.5%
• 12:30 UTC US CPI — forecast 334.85, previous 333.92
• 12:30 UTC US CPI s.a
• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.2%, previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 3.4%, previous 3.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — forecast 51, previous 51.7
• 14:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

Before the European session 1.1610 to 1.1604 (-6.0 pips), range 17.0

A downward forecast issued at 21:00 UTC on 10 September targeted 1.1593 on a bounce leg. At the close of the window, the level had not been reached, with price sitting 11.0 pips above the target.

10 September the day: 1.1635 to 1.1608 (-27.0 pips), range 50.0

At the close 1.1627 to 1.1614 (-13.0 pips), range 39.0

Resolved here: the forecast issued 8 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1602, at 12:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 9 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1609, at 12:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 12:15 UTC EU Deposit Facility Rate — 2.5% against a forecast of 2.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.25%
• 12:15 UTC EU ECB Interest Rate Decision — 2.65% against a forecast of 2.65% (in line with forecast), previous 2.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 206K against a forecast of 205K (above forecast), previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Core PPI MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US PPI MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
• 12:45 UTC EU ECB Press Conference
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales — 3.98M against a forecast of 3.98M (in line with forecast), previous 4.06M
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales MoM — -2%, previous -1.7%
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 1.269M against a forecast of -1.4M (above forecast), previous -1.173M
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -0.391M against a forecast of -1.6M (above forecast), previous -4.45M

Two standing forecasts resolved at 12:00 UTC. A bounce leg in a down trend issued on 8 September and a reversal leg in an up trend issued on 9 September both reached their respective targets.

The session coincided with major central bank and economic releases. The European Central Bank set its Interest Rate Decision at 2.65% and the Deposit Facility Rate at 2.5%, followed by the ECB Press Conference for which no reading is available. In the US, PPI MoM landed at 0.4% alongside Existing Home Sales at 3.98M.

At the close, a down-trend forecast issued on 4 September targeting a bounce leg remained standing, sitting 19.0 pips from its target.

Before the American session 1.1637 to 1.1628 (-9.0 pips), range 19.0

Major economic releases are scheduled ahead of the American session. The European Central Bank announces its Interest Rate Decision at 12:15 UTC, with a forecast of 2.65% alongside a predicted 2.5% Deposit Facility Rate, followed by the ECB Press Conference at 12:45 UTC. From the US, PPI MoM is due at 12:30 UTC with an expected 0.4%, while Existing Home Sales are scheduled for 14:00 UTC with a forecast of 3.98M.

At the close of the window, an upward reversal forecast targeting 1.1609 had not resolved. Issued on 9 September, the call stood 19.0 pips from its target level.

Due in the next session:

• 12:15 UTC EU Deposit Facility Rate — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.25%
• 12:15 UTC EU ECB Interest Rate Decision — forecast 2.65%, previous 2.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 205K, previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Core PPI MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US PPI MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%
• 12:45 UTC EU ECB Press Conference
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales — forecast 3.98M, previous 4.06M
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales MoM
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -1.4M, previous -1.173M
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast -1.6M, previous -4.45M

Before the European session 1.1631 to 1.1637 (+6.0 pips), range 14.0

Released during this session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -0.3M against a forecast of -1.3M (above forecast), previous -2.6M

At the close of the window at 05:00 UTC, a forecast issued at 21:00 UTC on 9 September calling for a reversal to 1.1609 had not resolved. Price finished 28.0 pips above the target.

During the overnight period, the US API Crude Oil Stock Change was reported at -0.3M against a forecast of -1.3M.

9 September the day: 1.1626 to 1.1635 (+9.0 pips), range 34.0

At the close 1.1630 to 1.1631 (+1.0 pips), range 34.0

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.85%, previous 6.79%
• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 12K, previous 10K
• 17:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

An earlier upward forecast issued at 06:00 UTC reached its 1.1621 target on a pull-back leg at 10:00 UTC, before the session opened. No further forecast levels were reached during the session itself.

At the close, a downward forecast issued on 8 September targeting 1.1602 on a bounce leg remained standing, with price 29.0 pips from the target.

During the session, the US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate was reported at 6.85% and ADP Weekly Employment Change landed at 12K, while ECB President Lagarde spoke in the afternoon.

Due in the next session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast -1.3M, previous -2.6M

Before the American session 1.1633 to 1.1630 (-3.0 pips), range 27.0

Resolved here: the forecast issued 9 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1621, at 10:00 UTC.

A pull-back target issued early in the morning was reached during the session. Meanwhile, a bounce forecast standing from the previous evening sit 28.0 pips above its target at 11:00 UTC.

Upcoming economic releases for the American session include the US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate and the weekly ADP Employment Change.

Due in the next session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly

Before the European session 1.1623 to 1.1633 (+10.0 pips), range 13.0

A downward forecast was issued at 21:00 UTC targeting 1.1602 on a bounce leg under governing level S5. At the close of the window, the projection remained standing with price 31.0 pips from the level.

8 September the day: 1.1623 to 1.1626 (+3.0 pips), range 28.0

Before the American session 1.1625 to 1.1612 (-13.0 pips), range 28.0

Resolved here: the forecast issued 7 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1615, at 07:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 8 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1620, at 07:00 UTC.

Two pull-back forecasts resolved during the morning session as price reached their targets.

At the close, a earlier bounce forecast targeting 1.1591 was still standing, with price finishing 21.0 pips away from the level. Looking ahead to the US session, weekly ADP employment data is scheduled for 12:15 UTC.

Before the European session 1.1622 to 1.1625 (+3.0 pips), range 14.0

A pull-back forecast targeting 1.1615 was issued at 21:00 UTC. At the end of the window, it had not resolved, with the quote sitting 10.0 pips above the target.

7 September the day: 1.1606 to 1.1623 (+17.0 pips), range 30.0

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.