EUR/USD forecast review, 14 to 20 September 2026

20 September the day: 1.1481 to 1.1479 (-2.0 pips), range 9.0

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.

18 September the day: 1.1475 to 1.1483 (+8.0 pips), range 37.0

Before the American session 1.1486 to 1.1474 (-12.0 pips), range 20.0

Resolved here: the forecast issued 16 September at 19:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1470, at 10:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 10:30 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

A downward bounce forecast issued on 16 September resolved as price reached its target. A second bounce call from the same evening was still standing at 11:00 UTC, with the close sitting 9.0 pips above its 1.1465 target.

ECB President Lagarde spoke during the morning. Looking ahead to the US session, US Industrial Production MoM is scheduled for release at 13:15 UTC with an expected reading of 0.3%, followed by a speech from Fed Bowman at 13:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 13:15 UTC US Industrial Production MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%
• 13:30 UTC US Fed Bowman Speech
• 15:45 UTC US Fed Schmid Speech

Before the European session 1.1475 to 1.1487 (+12.0 pips), range 18.0

At 05:00 UTC, the downward forecast issued on 16 September was still standing 22.0 pips above its 1.1465 target on a bounce leg, after price entered the 1.1491–1.1502 zone during the session.

Looking ahead in the European session, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 10:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 10:30 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 1.1465 on 18 September at 11:00 UTC.

17 September the day: 1.1462 to 1.1476 (+14.0 pips), range 42.0

At the close 1.1479 to 1.1479 (+0.0 pips), range 30.0

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Housing Starts — 1.275M against a forecast of 1.31M (below forecast), previous 1.309M
• 12:30 UTC US Building Permits Prel — 1.394M against a forecast of 1.41M (below forecast), previous 1.433M
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 196K against a forecast of 208K (below forecast), previous 206K
• 12:30 UTC US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — 37.8 against a forecast of 30.5 (above forecast), previous 47.4
• 12:30 UTC US Housing Starts MoM — -2.6%, previous -9%
• 12:30 UTC US Building Permits MoM Prel — -2.7%, previous 4.3%
• 14:00 UTC US Pending Home Sales YoY — -4.7%, previous -2.2%
• 14:00 UTC US Pending Home Sales MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 2% (below forecast), previous -2.6%

A batch of US economic data arrived at 12:30 UTC. Housing Starts came in at 1.275M against a forecast of 1.31M, while preliminary Building Permits landed at 1.394M against an expected 1.41M. Initial Jobless Claims were reported at 196K compared to the 208K forecast, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index printed at 37.8 against an anticipated 30.5.

At the close, a downward forecast issued on 16 September targeting 1.1465 on a bounce leg was still standing, with price sitting 14.0 pips short of the target.

Before the American session 1.1466 to 1.1478 (+12.0 pips), range 20.0

Major US economic releases are scheduled ahead at 12:30 UTC, led by Housing Starts, expected at 1.31M, and preliminary Building Permits, expected at 1.41M.

At the end of the window, a downward bounce forecast issued on 16 September targeting 1.1502 remained unresolved, with price sitting 24.0 pips short of the target.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Housing Starts — forecast 1.31M, previous 1.309M
• 12:30 UTC US Building Permits Prel — forecast 1.41M, previous 1.433M
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 208K, previous 206K
• 12:30 UTC US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — forecast 30.5, previous 47.4
• 12:30 UTC US Housing Starts MoM
• 12:30 UTC US Building Permits MoM Prel
• 14:00 UTC US Pending Home Sales YoY
• 14:00 UTC US Pending Home Sales MoM — forecast 2%, previous -2.6%

Before the European session 1.1472 to 1.1466 (-6.0 pips), range 19.0

Released during this session:

• 20:00 UTC US Net Long-term TIC Flows — -27.9B against a forecast of 146.3B (below forecast), previous 174.4B

At 05:00 UTC, a downward STC bounce forecast issued prior to the session was still standing, with the quote closing 36.0 pips short of its 1.1502 target.

During the window, US Net Long-term TIC Flows printed at -27.9B against a forecast of 146.3B.

16 September the day: 1.1540 to 1.1462 (-78.0 pips), range 102.0

At the close 1.1538 to 1.1472 (-66.0 pips), range 85.0

Resolved here: the forecast issued 5 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1505, at 18:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 6 August at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1510, at 18:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 6 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1510, at 18:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 15 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1533, at 11:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.97%, previous 6.85%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales MoM — 1.2% against a forecast of 0.8% (above forecast), previous -0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — 1.4% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous -0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — 1.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (above forecast), previous -0.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Import Prices MoM — 0.7% against a forecast of 0.4% (above forecast), previous -0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Export Prices MoM — 0.6% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous -1.4%
• 14:00 UTC US NAHB Housing Market Index — 32 against a forecast of 34 (below forecast), previous 35
• 14:00 UTC US Business Inventories MoM — 0.8% against a forecast of 0.3% (above forecast), previous 0.1%
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -0.64M against a forecast of -1.6M (above forecast), previous -0.391M
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 0.794M against a forecast of -1M (above forecast), previous 1.269M
• 17:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
• 18:00 UTC US FOMC Economic Projections
• 18:00 UTC US Fed Interest Rate Decision — 4% against a forecast of 4% (in line with forecast), previous 3.75%
• 18:30 UTC US Fed Press Conference

Four forecasts resolved as their targets were reached during the session, completing two reversal legs, a continuation leg, and a bounce leg. The window contained several key US releases: Retail Sales MoM arrived at 1.2% against a forecast of 0.8%, while the Fed Interest Rate Decision met expectations at 4%. Earlier in the day, EU Industrial Production MoM registered at -0.1% compared to the expected -0.2%.

A fresh forecast was issued late in the session for a bounce leg, setting a target at 1.1502 from a entry zone between 1.1526 and 1.1544. At the close, it was still standing with price 30.0 pips away from its target.

Due in the next session:

• 20:00 UTC US Net Long-term TIC Flows — forecast 146.3B, previous 174.4B

Before the American session 1.1544 to 1.1538 (-6.0 pips), range 23.0

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Industrial Production MoM — -0.1% against a forecast of -0.2% (above forecast), previous -0.1%

US Retail Sales MoM data is expected at 12:30 UTC, with a forecast of 0.8%.

Earlier in the session, EU Industrial Production MoM landed at 09:00 UTC with a reading of -0.1%, against an expected -0.2%.

The downward forecast targeting 1.1519 from a bounce leg had not resolved by 11:00 UTC, leaving the price 19.0 pips from the target.

Due in the next session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.8%, previous -0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — forecast 0.5%, previous -0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous -0.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Import Prices MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous -0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Export Prices MoM — forecast 0.5%, previous -1.4%
• 14:00 UTC US NAHB Housing Market Index — forecast 34, previous 35
• 14:00 UTC US Business Inventories MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.1%
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast -1.6M, previous -0.391M
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -1M, previous 1.269M

Before the European session 1.1541 to 1.1544 (+3.0 pips), range 14.0

Released during this session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — 7.14M against a forecast of -1.8M (above forecast), previous -0.3M

A downward forecast was issued at 21:00 UTC, setting a target at 1.1519 off a bounce zone between 1.1549 and 1.1562. At the close of the window at 05:00 UTC, the call had not resolved, with price sitting 25.0 pips from the target.

During the overnight window, the US API Crude Oil Stock Change print arrived at 21:00 UTC at 7.14M against a forecast of -1.8M.

Looking ahead to the European session, EU Industrial Production MoM is scheduled for 09:00 UTC, expected at -0.2%.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Industrial Production MoM — forecast -0.2%, previous -0.1%

15 September the day: 1.1549 to 1.1540 (-9.0 pips), range 25.0

At the close 1.1535 to 1.1541 (+6.0 pips), range 18.0

Released during this session:

• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 16.25K, previous 12.25K
• 12:30 UTC US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — 7.6 against a forecast of 14.75 (below forecast), previous 20.6

At the close, the downward continuation forecast targeting 1.1575 had not resolved, with price sitting 34.0 pips from the target level.

In economic data, the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index printed at 7.6 against a forecast of 14.75, while the US weekly ADP Employment Change arrived at 16.25K. Earlier in the day, the EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index landed at 25.8 against an expected 39.9, alongside the EU Balance of Trade reading at 14.2B.

Due in the next session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast -1.8M, previous -0.3M

Before the American session 1.1537 to 1.1535 (-2.0 pips), range 14.0

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index — 25.8 against a forecast of 39.9 (below forecast), previous 31.4
• 09:00 UTC EU Balance of Trade — 14.2B, previous 7.2B

The EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index landed at 25.8 against a forecast of 39.9, while the EU balance of trade reached 14.2B. Ahead in the American session, the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is scheduled with a forecast of 14.75, preceded by weekly ADP employment change data.

At the close of the session, the downward continuation forecast issued at 21:00 UTC on 14 September had not resolved, with price sitting 40.0 pips short of its 1.1575 target under governing level S5.

Due in the next session:

• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly
• 12:30 UTC US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — forecast 14.75, previous 20.6

Before the European session 1.1547 to 1.1537 (-10.0 pips), range 17.0

A downward continuation call issued at 21:00 UTC on 14 September was still standing as the session closed at 05:00 UTC, with EUR/USD 38.0 pips short of its 1.1575 target.

Looking ahead to the European morning, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is expected at 09:00 UTC with a forecast of 39.9, alongside the EU Balance of Trade release scheduled for the same time.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index — forecast 39.9, previous 31.4
• 09:00 UTC EU Balance of Trade

14 September the day: 1.1595 to 1.1548 (-47.0 pips), range 74.0

At the close 1.1540 to 1.1547 (+7.0 pips), range 40.0

Resolved here: the forecast issued 14 August at 12:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1529, at 12:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 15:15 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

A reversal forecast issued on 14 August resolved as its target was reached at 12:00 UTC. This followed two earlier target hits before the session opened, with reversal forecasts from 14 August and 17 August resolving at 08:00 UTC and 06:00 UTC respectively.

An ECB President Lagarde speech took place at 15:15 UTC, for which no reading is carried.

At the close, a down-trend reversal forecast issued at 06:00 UTC remained live, sitting 63.0 pips from its target.

Before the American session 1.1565 to 1.1540 (-25.0 pips), range 36.0

Resolved here: the forecast issued 14 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1540, at 08:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 17 August at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1550, at 06:00 UTC.

Two long-standing reversal forecasts resolved during the session. The earlier call from 17 August was reached first, followed two hours later by the resolution of the reversal target from 14 August.

A new forecast was issued at 06:00 UTC calling for a reversal to 1.1610, sitting 70.0 pips away from price at the close of the window.

ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak later in the session at 15:15 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 15:15 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

Before the European session 1.1594 to 1.1565 (-29.0 pips), range 35.0

A downward reversal forecast targeting 1.1633, issued on 11 September, remained standing as the European session approached. At the close of the window at 05:00 UTC, the market sat 68.0 pips below that target level.