EUR/USD forecast review, 21 to 27 September 2026
The last forecast of the week
Issued 2026-09-24 21:00 UTC, downward, from a zone between 1.1396 and 1.1407. The next level is 1.1367.
It had not resolved as of 2026-09-28 04:00 UTC: price had not reached its level.
Readings on this market have taken a median of 32 hours to reach the level they named, over the 84 that have.
Session by session
27 September the day: 1.1381 to 1.1382 (+1.0 pips), range 7.0
Nothing was worth reporting from this session.
25 September the day: 1.1376 to 1.1390 (+14.0 pips), range 43.0
At the close 1.1398 to 1.1395 (-3.0 pips), range 25.0
Released during this session:
- US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.6% (below forecast), previous 0.7%
- US Durable Goods Orders MoM — 0% against a forecast of -0.4% (above forecast), previous 0.9%
- US Fed Schmid Speech
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final — 48.1 against a forecast of 47.6 (above forecast), previous 51.7
- US Fed Hammack Speech
The downward forecast issued on 24 September targeting 1.1367 remained standing at the close, with price sitting 32.0 pips away from the target.
The session's major US Durable Goods Orders MoM printed at 0% against a forecast of -0.4%, while the Ex Transp reading landed at 0.3% compared to the 0.6% expectation. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final was reported at 48.1 against a forecast of 47.6. Scheduled speeches by Fed officials Schmid and Hammack took place during the window following earlier remarks from Fed Williams.
Before the American session 1.1370 to 1.1398 (+28.0 pips), range 31.0
Released during this session:
- US Fed Williams Speech
Major US Durable Goods Orders MoM figures head the upcoming session at 12:30 UTC, with a forecast of -0.4%. The calendar also brings Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final at 14:00 UTC, expected at 47.6, alongside a scheduled speech by Fed official Schmid at 13:20 UTC.
During the morning window, Fed official Williams spoke at 09:15 UTC. The downward STC bounce forecast issued on 24 September had not resolved by 11:00 UTC, leaving the target 31.0 pips away at the end of the slot as price pushed into the 1.1396–1.1407 entry band.
Due in the next session:
- US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — forecast 0.6%, previous 0.7%
- US Durable Goods Orders MoM — forecast -0.4%, previous 0.9%
- US Fed Schmid Speech
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final — forecast 47.6, previous 51.7
Before the European session 1.1377 to 1.1370 (-7.0 pips), range 14.0
Released during this session:
- US UN General Assembly
A downward forecast targeting 1.1367 was issued during the overnight window, tracking a bounce leg. At 05:00 UTC, the setup remained live with the close sitting 3.0 pips short of its target.
Ahead in the session, Fed Williams is scheduled to speak at 09:15 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Williams Speech
24 September the day: 1.1383 to 1.1378 (-5.0 pips), range 40.0
At the close 1.1374 to 1.1374 (+0.0 pips), range 33.0
Released during this session:
- US Fed Barkin Speech
- US Current Account — -246B against a forecast of -255B (above forecast), previous -212.6B
- US Initial Jobless Claims — 197K against a forecast of 201K (below forecast), previous 198K
- US Fed Hammack Speech
- US New Home Sales — 0.684M against a forecast of 0.62M (above forecast), previous 0.643M
- US New Home Sales MoM — 6.4%, previous -4.3%
- US Fed Paulson Speech
At the session close, the down-trend bounce forecast issued on 23 September remained active, with price finishing 1.0 pip from its 1.1378 target.
US economic data landed during the session, showing US Initial Jobless Claims at 197K against a 201K forecast and US New Home Sales at 0.684M above the 0.62M forecast. Earlier in the day, President Trump and President Xi held a summit.
Due in the next session:
- US UN General Assembly
What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 1.1378 on 27 September at 21:00 UTC.
Before the American session 1.1384 to 1.1374 (-10.0 pips), range 37.0
Released during this session:
- US Fed Williams Speech
At the close of the session, a downward forecast issued on 23 September remained active, seeking a 1.1378 target on a bounce. The close left price 4.0 pips short of reaching that level. During the window, Fed Member Williams spoke.
Looking ahead to the US session, Initial Jobless Claims (forecast 201K) and the Current Account balance (forecast -255B) are scheduled for 12:30 UTC. New Home Sales (forecast 0.62M) follows at 14:00 UTC, alongside scheduled speeches from Fed Members Barkin, Hammack, and Paulson.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Barkin Speech
- US Current Account — forecast -255B, previous -212.6B
- US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 201K, previous 198K
- US Fed Hammack Speech
- US New Home Sales — forecast 0.62M, previous 0.643M
- US New Home Sales MoM
- US Fed Paulson Speech
Before the European session 1.1384 to 1.1384 (+0.0 pips), range 19.0
Released during this session:
- US UN General Assembly
- US President Trump and President Xi Summit
- EU New Car Registrations YoY — 3%, previous 13.6%
- EU New Car Registrations YoY — 4.5%, previous 3%
At the close of the window, a downward bounce forecast issued at 21:00 UTC was still standing, sitting 6.0 pips from its target at 1.1378.
During the session, the summit between President Trump and President Xi was scheduled at 00:00 UTC, for which no economic reading is available. European new car registrations were also published at 04:00 UTC, printing at 3% and 4.5%.
Looking ahead to the European session, a speech by Fed Williams is scheduled for 08:10 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Williams Speech
23 September the day: 1.1448 to 1.1383 (-65.0 pips), range 80.0
At the close 1.1416 to 1.1384 (-32.0 pips), range 50.0
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 7.12%, previous 6.97%
- US S&P Global Services PMI Flash — forecast 56
- US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
- US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — forecast 53.6
- US Fed Barr Speech
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 2.969M against a forecast of -0.6M (above forecast), previous -0.64M
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -1.686M against a forecast of 0.1M (below forecast), previous 0.794M
Two upward reversal forecasts issued in late July reached their targets earlier in the day before this session opened, hitting their levels at 08:00 UTC and 10:00 UTC.
During the session's economic releases, European flash PMIs published above expectation in the morning, with Services landing at 53 against a 51.5 forecast and Composite at 53.1 against 51.7. In the US session, flash PMIs also topped expectations as Services came in at 58.7 versus a 56 forecast and Manufacturing landed at 57 against a 53.6 forecast. Fed Barr was also scheduled to speak.
At the close, a downward bounce forecast issued on 22 September remained active, sitting 48.0 pips short of its target. Ahead in the calendar, a major summit between President Trump and President Xi is scheduled for 00:00 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US UN General Assembly
- US President Trump and President Xi Summit
- EU New Car Registrations YoY
- EU New Car Registrations YoY
Before the American session 1.1427 to 1.1416 (-11.0 pips), range 22.0
Resolved here: the forecast issued 29 July at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1406, at 10:00 UTC.
Resolved here: the forecast issued 30 July at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1412, at 08:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — forecast 52.6
- EU S&P Global Services PMI Flash — forecast 51.5
- EU S&P Global Composite PMI Flash — forecast 51.7
Two long-standing forecasts resolved during the morning as price reached their targets on reversal legs, arriving first at 08:00 UTC and then at 10:00 UTC.
At the close of the window, a downward forecast issued on 22 September was still standing, with the pair sitting 16.0 pips from its target.
Flash PMI figures for the Eurozone arrived at 08:00 UTC, where the Services reading landed at 53 against a 51.5 forecast and the Composite index came in at 53.1 above the expected 51.7. Ahead in the American session, US Flash PMIs and crude oil stock changes are scheduled.
Due in the next session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- US S&P Global Services PMI Flash — forecast 56
- US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
- US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — forecast 53.6
- US Fed Barr Speech
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast -0.6M, previous -0.64M
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast 0.1M, previous 0.794M
Before the European session 1.1448 to 1.1427 (-21.0 pips), range 26.0
Released during this session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — 1.786M against a forecast of -0.5M (above forecast), previous 7.14M
- US UN General Assembly
A down-trend bounce forecast issued at 21:00 UTC on 22 September remained active at the close of the window, with price sitting 5.0 pips from its target at 1.1432.
Looking ahead to the European session, flash PMI figures for EU manufacturing, services, and composite activity are scheduled for 08:00 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — forecast 52.6
- EU S&P Global Services PMI Flash — forecast 51.5
- EU S&P Global Composite PMI Flash — forecast 51.7
22 September the day: 1.1466 to 1.1448 (-18.0 pips), range 49.0
At the close 1.1466 to 1.1448 (-18.0 pips), range 38.0
Released during this session:
- US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 20K, previous 16.25K
- EU Consumer Confidence Flash — -16.5 against a forecast of -16 (below forecast), previous -15.5
- US Fed Williams Speech
- US Fed Jefferson Speech
- US Fed Barkin Speech
- EU ECB Nagel Speech
Earlier in the day, two downward bounce forecasts issued on 18 September reached their respective targets of 1.1461 and 1.1459 at 06:00 UTC. A subsequent downward bounce call issued at 07:00 UTC—targeting 1.1464 from a zone between 1.1484 and 1.1492—had not resolved by the close, sitting 16.0 pips from its target.
In session data, US weekly ADP Employment Change arrived at 20K, while the EU flash Consumer Confidence reading came in at -16.5 against a expected -16. Speeches by ECB official Nagel and Fed officials Williams, Jefferson, and Barkin were also scheduled during the period.
Due in the next session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast -0.5M, previous 7.14M
- US UN General Assembly
Before the American session 1.1478 to 1.1466 (-12.0 pips), range 44.0
Resolved here: the forecast issued 18 September at 12:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1461, at 06:00 UTC.
Resolved here: the forecast issued 18 September at 14:00 reached its invalidation level, 1.1459, at 06:00 UTC.
Two down-trend forecasts on bounce legs resolved early in the session, reaching their targets at 06:00 UTC.
A new down-trend bounce forecast was issued at 07:00 UTC. At the close of the window, it was standing live and sat 2.0 pips from its target.
Ahead in the US session, the calendar includes US weekly ADP employment data, the euro zone flash consumer confidence reading, and scheduled speeches from Fed Officials Williams and Jefferson.
Due in the next session:
- US ADP Employment Change Weekly
- EU Consumer Confidence Flash — forecast -16, previous -15.5
- US Fed Williams Speech
- US Fed Jefferson Speech
Before the European session 1.1464 to 1.1478 (+14.0 pips), range 15.0
Released during this session:
- US UN General Assembly
At 05:00 UTC, a downward forecast issued on 18 September was standing with a target of 1.1459 from a bounce zone between 1.1482 and 1.1492. At the window's close, price sat 19.0 pips short of the target.
The UN General Assembly was on the calendar during the session, carrying no published economic reading.
21 September the day: 1.1478 to 1.1465 (-13.0 pips), range 34.0
At the close 1.1480 to 1.1464 (-16.0 pips), range 34.0
Released during this session:
- US Chicago Fed National Activity Index — -0.04, previous 0.08
The US Chicago Fed National Activity Index landed at 12:30 UTC with a reading of -0.04, following a previous print of 0.08. Fed Goolsbee was also scheduled to speak earlier in the day.
At the close, a downward STC forecast issued on 18 September remained active on a bounce leg, sitting 5.0 pips short of its target.
Due in the next session:
- US UN General Assembly
Before the American session 1.1475 to 1.1480 (+5.0 pips), range 15.0
Released during this session:
- US Fed Goolsbee Speech
At 11:00 UTC, a downward forecast issued on 18 September was still standing, with the pair sitting 21.0 pips above its target at 1.1459 on a bounce leg.
During the session, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee spoke at 10:30 UTC. Ahead in the American session, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index is scheduled for 12:30 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Before the European session 1.1481 to 1.1475 (-6.0 pips), range 13.0
Released during this session:
- US UN General Assembly
At 05:00 UTC, the downward bounce forecast issued on 18 September was still standing, with the price ending the window 16 pips above its 1.1459 target.
Later in the day, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee is scheduled to speak at 10:30 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Goolsbee Speech
How the week ended
How the week ended
| Forecasts that ended this week | 5 |
|---|---|
| Reached the level they named | 5 |
| Issued this week | 4 |
| Still standing on Sunday | 3 |
| Week open to close | 1.1478 to 1.1382 (-96.0 pips) |
| Week range | 1.1359 to 1.1496 (137.0 pips) |
The week
Five forecasts settled for EUR/USD during the week of 21 to 27 September 2026. All 5 reached their target band, while 0 ended another way. During this period, 4 new forecasts were issued, 3 of which remained open at the close of the week.
EUR/USD opened at 1.1478 and closed at 1.1382, ending the week with a change of -96.0 pips. Trading spanned a high of 1.1496 and a low of 1.1359, forming a weekly range of 137.0 pips.
The economic calendar included a summit between President Trump and President Xi on 24 September and the release of US Durable Goods Orders MoM on 25 September, which reported actual growth at 0%. A forecast issued on 24 September sets a downward target of 1.1367, with the upper edge of the zone at 1.1407 and the lower edge at 1.1396.
Every forecast that ended this week
| Issued | Direction | Corridor | Continuation | Invalidation | Reached | Ended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 21:00 | down | 1.1404 - 1.1415 | 1.1378 | bounce | 2026-09-27 21:00 | |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 | up | 1.1388 - 1.1406 | 1.1406 | reversal | 2026-09-23 10:00 | |
| 2026-07-30 06:00 | up | 1.1395 - 1.1412 | 1.1412 | reversal | 2026-09-23 08:00 | |
| 2026-09-18 12:00 | down | 1.1484 - 1.1493 | 1.1461 | bounce | 2026-09-22 06:00 | |
| 2026-09-18 14:00 | down | 1.1482 - 1.1492 | 1.1459 | bounce | 2026-09-22 06:00 |
On the calendar this week
- 21 September, 00:00 UTC - US UN General Assembly
- 21 September, 10:30 UTC - US Fed Goolsbee Speech
- 21 September, 12:30 UTC - US Chicago Fed National Activity Index
- 22 September, 00:00 UTC - US UN General Assembly
- 22 September, 12:15 UTC - US ADP Employment Change Weekly
- 22 September, 14:00 UTC - EU Consumer Confidence Flash
- 22 September, 14:05 UTC - US Fed Williams Speech
- 22 September, 14:20 UTC - US Fed Jefferson Speech
- 22 September, 17:00 UTC - US Fed Barkin Speech
- 22 September, 19:30 UTC - EU ECB Nagel Speech
- 22 September, 21:00 UTC - US API Crude Oil Stock Change
- 23 September, 00:00 UTC - US UN General Assembly
- 23 September, 08:00 UTC - EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
- 23 September, 08:00 UTC - EU S&P Global Services PMI Flash
- 23 September, 08:00 UTC - EU S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
- 23 September, 11:00 UTC - US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 23 September, 13:45 UTC - US S&P Global Services PMI Flash
- 23 September, 13:45 UTC - US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
- 23 September, 13:45 UTC - US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
- 23 September, 14:05 UTC - US Fed Barr Speech
- 23 September, 14:30 UTC - US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- 23 September, 14:30 UTC - US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
- 24 September, 00:00 UTC - US UN General Assembly
- 24 September, 00:00 UTC - US President Trump and President Xi Summit
- 24 September, 04:00 UTC - EU New Car Registrations YoY
- 24 September, 04:00 UTC - EU New Car Registrations YoY
- 24 September, 08:10 UTC - US Fed Williams Speech
- 24 September, 12:00 UTC - US Fed Barkin Speech
- 24 September, 12:30 UTC - US Current Account
- 24 September, 12:30 UTC - US Initial Jobless Claims
- 24 September, 12:50 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 24 September, 14:00 UTC - US New Home Sales
- 24 September, 14:00 UTC - US New Home Sales MoM
- 24 September, 14:10 UTC - US Fed Paulson Speech
- 25 September, 00:00 UTC - US UN General Assembly
- 25 September, 09:15 UTC - US Fed Williams Speech
- 25 September, 12:30 UTC - US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
- 25 September, 12:30 UTC - US Durable Goods Orders MoM
- 25 September, 13:20 UTC - US Fed Schmid Speech
- 25 September, 14:00 UTC - US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final
- 25 September, 18:00 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech