NatGas forecast review, 31 August to 6 September 2026

4 September the day: 2.9229 to 2.9331 (+10.2 points), range 83.0

At the close 2.9192 to 2.9379 (+18.7 points), range 71.8

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls — 162K against a forecast of 56K (above forecast), previous 21K
• 12:30 UTC US Unemployment Rate — 4.1% against a forecast of 4.1% (in line with forecast), previous 4.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.3% (in line with forecast), previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings YoY — 3.1% against a forecast of 3% (above forecast), previous 3.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Participation Rate — 61.6%, previous 61.4%

The downward forecast issued on 3 September at 18:00 UTC was withdrawn at 16:00 UTC following a trend flip.

During the window, US Non-Farm Payrolls landed at 162K against the 56K expected, while US Unemployment Rate came in at 4.1%, matching expectations. Earlier in the day, EU Retail Sales MoM prints arrived at -0.6% against a forecast of 0.3%. At the close at 20:00 UTC, no forecast was active.

What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 2.8706 on 8 September at 15:00 UTC.

Before the American session 2.9191 to 2.9184 (-0.7 points), range 33.3

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Retail Sales MoM — -0.6% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.2%

Major US labor data is scheduled ahead at 12:30 UTC, with Non Farm Payrolls expected at 56K alongside the Unemployment Rate forecast at 4.1%. Earlier in the window, EU Retail Sales MoM landed at -0.6% against a 0.3% forecast.

The downward forecast issued on 3 September at 18:00 UTC remained standing at the close of the session, sitting 78.2 points above its continuation target at 2.8398 and 99.0 points below its invalidation level at 3.0170.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls — forecast 56K, previous 21K
• 12:30 UTC US Unemployment Rate — forecast 4.1%, previous 4.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings YoY — forecast 3%, previous 3.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Participation Rate

Before the European session 2.9132 to 2.9204 (+7.2 points), range 20.8

A downward forecast issued at 18:00 UTC on 3 September was still standing at 05:00 UTC. The close left price 80.2 points above the 2.8398 continuation target and 97.0 points below the 3.0170 invalidation level.

Ahead in the European morning, EU Retail Sales MoM is scheduled for 09:00 UTC with a forecast of 0.3%.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%

3 September the day: 2.9913 to 2.9199 (-71.4 points), range 133.8

At the close 3.0069 to 2.9144 (-92.5 points), range 129.3

Resolved here: the forecast issued 2 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 2.8846, at 15:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 3 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 2.9120, at 15:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 206K against a forecast of 205K (above forecast), previous 204K
• 12:30 UTC US Exports — 310.7B, previous 314.7B
• 12:30 UTC US Imports — 399.3B, previous 388.5B
• 12:30 UTC US Balance of Trade — -88.6B against a forecast of -90B (above forecast), previous -71.2B
• 12:30 UTC US Fed Waller Speech
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Services PMI — 55.4 against a forecast of 54.3 (above forecast), previous 54.1
• 19:00 UTC US Fed Hammack Speech

An bullish forecast issued earlier in the day reached its invalidation level as NatGas traded lower across the session, with price pushing down to close near the bottom of a 129.0 point range.

The move unfolded alongside US economic data, including the major ISM Services PMI release at 14:00 UTC, which came in at 55.4 against a 54.3 forecast, and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC. No live forecasts remained active at the close.

Before the American session 3.0109 to 3.0032 (-7.7 points), range 39.1

Major US ISM Services PMI data is scheduled ahead at 14:00 UTC, with expectations set at 54.3. Earlier at 12:30 UTC, US Initial Jobless Claims are due with a forecast of 205K, alongside US Balance of Trade figures and a speech by Fed Governor Waller.

At 11:00 UTC, the bullish forecast issued at 04:00 UTC was still standing. The close sat 46.2 points below its continuation target of 3.0492 and 79.1 points above its invalidation level at 2.9239.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 205K, previous 204K
• 12:30 UTC US Exports
• 12:30 UTC US Imports
• 12:30 UTC US Balance of Trade — forecast -90B, previous -71.2B
• 12:30 UTC US Fed Waller Speech
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Services PMI — forecast 54.3, previous 54.1

2 September the day: 2.9391 to 2.9942 (+55.1 points), range 88.1

Before the European session 2.9451 to 2.9389 (-6.2 points), range 28.9

Released during this session:

• 20:50 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -2.6M against a forecast of -0.8M (below forecast), previous 4.2M

The API Crude Oil Stock Change arrived during the window showing -2.6M, compared to the -0.8M forecast.

The bullish forecast issued on 31 August at 19:00 UTC remained live throughout the session. At 05:00 UTC, the market closed 56.1 points below the 2.9951 continuation target and 140.8 points above the 2.7982 invalidation level.

1 September the day: 2.9264 to 2.9411 (+14.7 points), range 102.2

Before the American session 2.9283 to 2.9053 (-23.0 points), range 35.2

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash — 2.4% against a forecast of 2.5% (below forecast), previous 2.5%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate MoM Flash — 0.4%, previous 0.2%
• 09:00 UTC EU Unemployment Rate — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 6.4%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash — 3.3% against a forecast of 3.3% (in line with forecast), previous 2.9%

Major US data releases are scheduled for the upcoming session, with JOLTs Job Openings expected at 7.3M and ISM Manufacturing PMI expected at 55.2 at 14:00 UTC. Fed Barr is also scheduled to speak at 13:05 UTC.

During the morning session, the flash EU Inflation Rate YoY reading matched the forecast at 3.3%.

At 11:00 UTC, the upward forecast issued on 31 August was still standing, with the close sitting 90.1 points from the continuation target and 106.8 points from the invalidation level.

Due in the next session:

• 13:05 UTC US Fed Barr Speech
• 14:00 UTC US JOLTs Job Openings — forecast 7.3M, previous 7.182M
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Manufacturing PMI — forecast 55.2, previous 55.6
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Manufacturing Employment

What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 2.9456 on 1 September at 19:00 UTC.

Before the European session 2.9269 to 2.9279 (+1.0 points), range 22.9

Ahead of the European session, a major economic release is scheduled at 09:00 UTC with the EU Flash Inflation Rate YoY, where the forecast stands at 3.3%.

At 05:00 UTC, the bullish forecast issued at 19:00 UTC on 31 August remained standing, with price sitting 67.1 points below the continuation target of 2.9951 and 129.8 points above the invalidation level at 2.7982.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.5%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate MoM Flash
• 09:00 UTC EU Unemployment Rate — forecast 6.3%, previous 6.4%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash — forecast 3.3%, previous 2.9%

31 August the day: 2.8723 to 2.9244 (+52.1 points), range 118.7

At the close 2.8922 to 2.9294 (+37.2 points), range 94.6

Released during this session:

• 14:30 UTC US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index — 11.6, previous 1.3

A downward forecast was withdrawn early in the session following a trend flip, having reached neither its continuation level nor its invalidation. No active forecast was standing at the close.

The US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index landed at 14:30 UTC with a reading of 11.6, compared to 1.3 previously.

What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 2.8175 on 9 September at 17:00 UTC.

Before the American session 2.8651 to 2.8899 (+24.8 points), range 60.3

The downward forecast issued at 03:00 UTC was still standing at the 11:00 UTC close without resolving. Price finished inside the 2.8854–2.9049 entry zone at 2.890, leaving the move 101.7 points from the 2.7883 continuation target and 53.8 points from the 2.9438 invalidation level.

Due in the next session:

• 14:30 UTC US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

Before the European session 2.8723 to 2.8663 (-6.0 points), range 76.7

Trading ahead of the European session spanned a 77.0-point range, covering 3.29 times the hourly average true range.