NatGas forecast review, 12 to 18 October 2026
The last forecast of the week
Issued 2026-10-16 14:00 UTC, downward, from a zone between 3.1437 and 3.1724. The next level is 3.0722.
It reached its level, 3.0722, at 2026-10-18 22:00 UTC — after this week had closed.
Readings on this market have taken a median of 33 hours to reach the level they named, over the 66 that have.
Session by session
16 October the day: 3.2061 to 3.1114 (-94.7 points), range 160.2
At the close 3.1700 to 3.1183 (-51.7 points), range 131.3
Released during this session:
- US Import Prices MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.8% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
- US Export Prices MoM — 2.2% against a forecast of 1% (above forecast), previous 1.2%
- US Industrial Production MoM — 0.7% against a forecast of 0.4% (above forecast), previous 0.1%
- US Monthly Budget Statement — -27B against a forecast of -29B (above forecast), previous -167B
An earlier downward forecast from 14 October reached its target at 06:00 UTC on a bounce leg. A new downward forecast was subsequently issued at 14:00 UTC targeting 3.0722 from a zone between 3.1437 and 3.1724. At the close, it had not resolved and remained standing 40.1 points short of its target.
In the calendar, Fed Chair Warsh spoke at 03:30 UTC, though no reading is available for the event. The EU Balance of Trade printed at -16.1B at 09:00 UTC. Later in the session, US Import Prices MoM landed at 1.1% against a 0.8% forecast, Export Prices MoM reached 2.2% against an expected 1%, and US Industrial Production MoM came in at 0.7% above the 0.4% forecast.
Due in the next session:
- US Net Long-term TIC Flows — forecast 75.2B, previous -27.9B
- US Fed Goolsbee Speech
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 3.0722 on 18 October at 22:00 UTC.
Before the American session 3.2162 to 3.1704 (-45.8 points), range 53.3
Resolved here: the forecast issued 14 October at 15:00 reached its invalidation level, 3.1904, at 06:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- EU Balance of Trade — -16.1B, previous 10.7B
A downward forecast issued on 14 October reached its target on a bounce leg.
At 08:00 UTC, a fresh downward forecast was issued with a target band at 3.1773 on a bounce leg. At the close, it had not resolved, with price sitting 6.9 points from the target.
Earlier in the session, the EU balance of trade reading arrived at -16.1B compared to 10.7B previously. Scheduled ahead of the US opening are US import and export price indices at 12:30 UTC, followed by industrial production data at 13:15 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Import Prices MoM — forecast 0.8%, previous 0.5%
- US Export Prices MoM — forecast 1%, previous 1.2%
- US Industrial Production MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%
Before the European session 3.2342 to 3.2152 (-19.0 points), range 41.3
Released during this session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
- US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
A downward bounce forecast was issued at 21:00 UTC, establishing a zone between 3.2827 and 3.3136 with a target at 3.2054. At the close of the window, the forecast had not resolved, with price sitting 17.9 points from the target band.
During the session, Fed Chair Warsh spoke at 03:30 UTC. Ahead in the European session, EU Balance of Trade data is scheduled for release at 09:00 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- EU Balance of Trade
15 October the day: 3.2754 to 3.2054 (-70.0 points), range 127.1
At the close 3.2531 to 3.2372 (-15.9 points), range 127.1
Resolved here: the forecast issued 14 October at 14:00 reached its invalidation level, 3.2114, at 12:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US PPI MoM — 1.3% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — 20.9 against a forecast of 28.4 (below forecast), previous 37.8
- US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — 0.1% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 1.2%
- US Core PPI MoM — 0.7% against a forecast of 0.3% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
- US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — 25.5 against a forecast of 10.3 (above forecast), previous 7.6
- US Initial Jobless Claims — 199K against a forecast of 200K (below forecast), previous 198K
- US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — 0.9% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 1.4%
- US Retail Sales MoM — 0.8% against a forecast of 0.3% (above forecast), previous 1.3%
- US Business Inventories MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.9%
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — 3.6% against a forecast of 3.6% (in line with forecast), previous 3.6%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 3.518M against a forecast of -0.5M (above forecast), previous 0.382M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -8.557M against a forecast of -0.3M (below forecast), previous -3.186M
A downward bounce forecast resolved during the session as price reached its target. A new downward bounce forecast was issued at 17:00 UTC and was still standing at the close, 27.1 points above its target band.
In US economic releases, PPI MoM printed at 1.3% against a 0.5% forecast, while Retail Sales MoM came in at 0.8% against an expected 0.3%. Ahead in the coming session, Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to speak at 03:30 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
- US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
Before the American session 3.2631 to 3.2552 (-7.9 points), range 31.0
Released during this session:
- EU Industrial Production MoM — -0.5% against a forecast of 0% (below forecast), previous -0.3%
Major US economic prints are scheduled ahead of the session at 12:30 UTC, led by PPI MoM expected at 0.5% and Retail Sales MoM expected at 0.3%. Earlier in the morning window, EU Industrial Production MoM crossed at -0.5% against a forecast of 0%.
At the close of the window, a downward forecast issued on 14 October targeting 3.1904 on a bounce leg was still standing, with price 64.8 points from the target.
Due in the next session:
- US PPI MoM — forecast 0.5%, previous 0.5%
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — forecast 28.4, previous 37.8
- US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 1.2%
- US Core PPI MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%
- US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — forecast 10.3, previous 7.6
- US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 200K, previous 198K
- US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — forecast 0.5%, previous 1.4%
- US Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 1.3%
- US Business Inventories MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.9%
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — forecast 3.6%, previous 3.6%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -0.5M, previous 0.382M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast -0.3M, previous -3.186M
Before the European session 3.2671 to 3.2643 (-2.8 points), range 56.0
Released during this session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -11.1M against a forecast of 1.9M (below forecast), previous -2.09M
- US Fed Bowman Speech
Two downward bounce forecasts ended in failure during the session as their zones broke, resolving in the order they were invalidated. At the close, an earlier downward bounce call issued at 15:00 UTC was still standing, with the quote sitting 73.9 points from its target.
During the window, the US API Crude Oil Stock Change print showed -11.1M against a forecast of 1.9M. A speech by Fed Governor Bowman was also scheduled.
Looking ahead, EU Industrial Production figures are scheduled at 09:00 UTC, with a forecast of 0%.
Due in the next session:
- EU Industrial Production MoM — forecast 0%, previous -0.3%
14 October the day: 3.3141 to 3.2823 (-31.8 points), range 172.1
At the close 3.2733 to 3.2661 (-7.2 points), range 172.1
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 7.5%, previous 7.49%
- US CPI s.a — 336.3, previous 334.13
- US CPI — 336.94 against a forecast of 336.65 (above forecast), previous 334.98
- US Core Inflation Rate MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
- US Inflation Rate YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.4%
- US Core Inflation Rate YoY — 2.6% against a forecast of 2.5% (above forecast), previous 2.4%
- US Inflation Rate MoM — 0.6% against a forecast of 0.6% (in line with forecast), previous 0.4%
- US Fed Barkin Speech
Seven upward bounce forecasts issued on 13 October ended at 13:00 UTC without reaching their target bands. A new downward bounce forecast was issued at 17:00 UTC, expecting price to turn from a zone between 3.2278 and 3.2516 toward 3.1682. At the close, it was still standing, with price sitting 97.9 points from the target.
US inflation data released at 12:30 UTC showed the annual inflation rate at 3.7% against a 3.6% forecast, while core annual inflation landed at 2.6% against an expected 2.5%. The monthly core reading prints at 0.3% above the 0.2% forecast, while the monthly inflation rate matched expectations at 0.6%. Fed Barkin spoke at 17:30 UTC, and no reading was available for the Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC.
Ahead in the session, US API crude oil stock change figures are scheduled for 20:30 UTC, with an expected reading of 1.9M.
Due in the next session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast 1.9M, previous -2.09M
- US Fed Bowman Speech
Before the American session 3.3141 to 3.2702 (-43.9 points), range 51.9
Released during this session:
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- US Fed Bowman Speech
Major US inflation releases are scheduled ahead at 12:30 UTC. Expectations sit at 0.2% for Core Inflation Rate MoM, 3.6% for Inflation Rate YoY, 2.5% for Core Inflation Rate YoY, and 0.6% for Inflation Rate MoM.
An upward bounce forecast issued at 20:00 UTC on 13 October remained standing throughout the window. At the close, price sat 45.1 points below the target level of 3.3153. Speeches by ECB President Lagarde and Fed Governor Bowman were also scheduled during the session.
Due in the next session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- US CPI s.a
- US CPI — forecast 336.65, previous 334.98
- US Core Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.2%, previous 0.3%
- US Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 3.6%, previous 3.4%
- US Core Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.4%
- US Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.6%, previous 0.4%
Before the European session 3.3161 to 3.3134 (-2.7 points), range 20.1
Released during this session:
- US Fed Collins Speech
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
An upward bounce forecast was issued at 20:00 UTC targeting 3.3153, off a zone between 3.2305 and 3.2547. At the 05:00 UTC close, price sat 1.9 points short of the target and the call had not resolved. During the session, a speech by ECB President Lagarde was scheduled for 02:10 UTC, following a speech by Fed Collins at 20:00 UTC.
Looking ahead, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak again at 08:30 UTC, with a speech by Fed Bowman on the calendar for 09:40 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- US Fed Bowman Speech
13 October the day: 3.1692 to 3.3144 (+145.2 points), range 220.9
Before the European session 3.1673 to 3.1574 (-9.9 points), range 33.0
A bullish bounce forecast was issued at 23:00 UTC, targeting 3.1781 from a zone between 3.0948 and 3.1186. At 05:00 UTC, it was still standing, with the market 20.7 points short of the target band.
Ahead in the upcoming session, Fed Waller is scheduled to speak at 07:45 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Waller Speech
What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 3.1781 on 13 October at 12:00 UTC.
12 October the day: 3.1764 to 3.1711 (-5.3 points), range 111.2
At the close 3.1403 to 3.1662 (+25.9 points), range 111.2
Resolved here: the forecast issued 12 October at 09:00 reached its invalidation level, 3.1691, at 15:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
An upward bounce forecast issued earlier in the morning reached its target during the session. Earlier in the day, a previous bounce call from 9 October ended after failing its zone.
Fed Hammack spoke at 16:50 UTC.
At the close, an older reversal forecast issued on 14 September was still standing, with price sitting 352.5 points from the target.
What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 3.1662 on 13 October at 12:00 UTC.
How the week ended
How the week ended
| Forecasts that ended this week | 17 |
|---|---|
| Reached the level they named | 7 |
| Ended without reaching it | 10 |
| Issued this week | 23 |
| Still standing on Sunday | 7 |
| Week open to close | 3.1764 to 3.1114 (-65.0 points) |
| Week range | 3.0631 to 3.3272 (264.1 points) |
The week
During the week of 12 to 18 October 2026, 17 NatGas forecasts settled. Among them, 7 reached their target band and 10 ended another way. The system issued 23 forecasts over the course of the week, with 7 remaining open at the close on Sunday.
NatGas opened at 3.1764 and closed at 3.1114, recording a change of -65.0 points. The price reached a high of 3.3272 and a low of 3.0631, covering a total range of 264.1 points.
Every forecast that ended this week
| Issued | Direction | Corridor | Continuation | Invalidation | Reached | Ended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 15:00 | down | 3.2492 - 3.2727 | 3.1904 | bounce | 2026-10-16 06:00 | |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 | down | 3.2678 - 3.2903 | 3.2114 | bounce | 2026-10-15 12:00 | |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 | down | 3.2444 - 3.2681 | 3.1854 | bounce | 2026-10-14 23:00 | |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 | down | 3.2278 - 3.2516 | 3.1682 | bounce | 2026-10-14 22:00 | |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 | up | 3.1012 - 3.1235 | 3.1793 | bounce | 2026-10-14 13:00 | |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 | up | 3.1445 - 3.1679 | 3.2264 | bounce | 2026-10-14 13:00 | |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 | up | 3.1637 - 3.1876 | 3.2473 | bounce | 2026-10-14 13:00 | |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 | up | 3.1802 - 3.2040 | 3.2633 | bounce | 2026-10-14 13:00 | |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 | up | 3.1984 - 3.2227 | 3.2834 | bounce | 2026-10-14 13:00 | |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 | up | 3.2240 - 3.2486 | 3.3102 | bounce | 2026-10-14 13:00 | |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 | up | 3.2305 - 3.2547 | 3.3153 | bounce | 2026-10-14 13:00 | |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 | up | 3.0807 - 3.1051 | 3.1662 | bounce | 2026-10-13 12:00 | |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 | up | 3.0868 - 3.1109 | 3.1711 | bounce | 2026-10-13 12:00 | |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 | up | 3.0948 - 3.1186 | 3.1781 | bounce | 2026-10-13 12:00 | |
| 2026-10-13 07:00 | up | 3.1000 - 3.1206 | 3.1721 | bounce | 2026-10-13 12:00 | |
| 2026-10-12 09:00 | up | 3.0337 - 3.1060 | 3.1691 | bounce | 2026-10-12 15:00 | |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 | up | 3.1430 - 3.1677 | 3.2294 | bounce | 2026-10-12 08:00 |
On the calendar this week
- 12 October, 16:50 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 13 October, 07:45 UTC - US Fed Waller Speech
- 13 October, 12:15 UTC - US ADP Employment Change Weekly
- 13 October, 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales MoM
- 13 October, 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales
- 13 October, 17:00 UTC - US Fed Barkin Speech
- 13 October, 20:00 UTC - US Fed Collins Speech
- 14 October, 02:10 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- 14 October, 08:30 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- 14 October, 09:40 UTC - US Fed Bowman Speech
- 14 October, 11:00 UTC - US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US CPI s.a
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US CPI
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Core Inflation Rate MoM
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Inflation Rate YoY
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Core Inflation Rate YoY
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Inflation Rate MoM
- 14 October, 17:30 UTC - US Fed Barkin Speech
- 14 October, 21:00 UTC - US API Crude Oil Stock Change
- 15 October, 02:55 UTC - US Fed Bowman Speech
- 15 October, 09:00 UTC - EU Industrial Production MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US PPI MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales Control Group MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Core PPI MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Initial Jobless Claims
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales MoM
- 15 October, 14:00 UTC - US Business Inventories MoM
- 15 October, 15:30 UTC - US Atlanta Fed GDPNow
- 15 October, 16:00 UTC - US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
- 15 October, 16:00 UTC - US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- 15 October, 20:30 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 16 October, 03:30 UTC - US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
- 16 October, 09:00 UTC - EU Balance of Trade
- 16 October, 12:30 UTC - US Import Prices MoM
- 16 October, 12:30 UTC - US Export Prices MoM
- 16 October, 13:15 UTC - US Industrial Production MoM
- 16 October, 18:00 UTC - US Monthly Budget Statement
- 16 October, 20:00 UTC - US Net Long-term TIC Flows
- 16 October, 22:00 UTC - US Fed Goolsbee Speech
- 17 October, 05:00 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech