SPX500 forecast review, 31 August to 6 September 2026

4 September the day: 7743.4 to 7712.4 (-31.0 points), range 52.0

At the close 7755.4 to 7717.4 (-38.0 points), range 51.5

Resolved here: the forecast issued 3 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 7724.5, at 12:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 4 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 7731.2, at 12:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls — 162K against a forecast of 56K (above forecast), previous 21K
• 12:30 UTC US Unemployment Rate — 4.1% against a forecast of 4.1% (in line with forecast), previous 4.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.3% (in line with forecast), previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings YoY — 3.1% against a forecast of 3% (above forecast), previous 3.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Participation Rate — 61.6%, previous 61.4%

A bullish forecast issued at 09:00 UTC was withdrawn at 16:00 UTC following a trend flip. Earlier in the day, a forecast issued at 22:00 UTC on 3 September was withdrawn at 07:00 UTC due to a new extreme before the pull-back.

Key economic data crossed the calendar during the window, led by US Non Farm Payrolls at 162K against a 56K forecast, while the US Unemployment Rate landed at 4.1%, matching expectations. Earlier in the day, EU Retail Sales MoM printed at -0.6% against a forecasted 0.3%.

At the close, no forecast was standing.

Before the American session 7754.4 to 7755.0 (+0.6 points), range 9.6

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Retail Sales MoM — -0.6% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.2%

An upward forecast issued on 3 September was withdrawn at 06:00 UTC after the market set a new extreme before pulling back to the entry zone. No new forecast was active at the close of the window.

Attention turns to major US labor market data due at 12:30 UTC, led by Non Farm Payrolls, expected at 56K, and the Unemployment Rate, forecast at 4.1%. Earlier in the session, EU Retail Sales MoM fell to -0.6% against an expected 0.3%.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Non Farm Payrolls — forecast 56K, previous 21K
• 12:30 UTC US Unemployment Rate — forecast 4.1%, previous 4.1%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Average Hourly Earnings YoY — forecast 3%, previous 3.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Participation Rate

Before the European session 7747.1 to 7754.5 (+7.4 points), range 13.3

An upward forecast issued at 22:00 UTC was standing at 05:00 UTC. Set from a corridor between 7708.4 and 7723.3, the call pointed toward a continuation target of 7780.8, with invalidation at 7684.3. At the end of the window, price sat 26.3 points below the target and 70.2 points above invalidation.

Ahead in the European session, EU Retail Sales MoM is scheduled at 09:00 UTC with a forecast of 0.3%.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%

3 September the day: 7664.6 to 7744.4 (+79.8 points), range 104.9

At the close 7663.7 to 7747.6 (+83.9 points), range 95.8

Resolved here: the forecast issued 28 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 7746.5, at 15:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 31 August at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 7706.0, at 13:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 1 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 7695.5, at 13:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 2 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 7688.6, at 12:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 206K against a forecast of 205K (above forecast), previous 204K
• 12:30 UTC US Exports — 310.7B, previous 314.7B
• 12:30 UTC US Imports — 399.3B, previous 388.5B
• 12:30 UTC US Balance of Trade — -88.6B against a forecast of -90B (above forecast), previous -71.2B
• 12:30 UTC US Fed Waller Speech
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Services PMI — 55.4 against a forecast of 54.3 (above forecast), previous 54.1
• 19:00 UTC US Fed Hammack Speech

An earlier bullish forecast issued on 2 September was withdrawn at 09:00 UTC due to a new extreme before a pull-back occurred. A fresh bullish call issued at 11:00 UTC was also withdrawn at 13:00 UTC for the same reason, as price pushed to a new extreme without retracing into the entry zone.

In economic releases, the US ISM Services PMI landed at 55.4, above the forecast 54.3. US Initial Jobless Claims printed at 206K against a 205K forecast, while the trade balance showed -88.6B against an expected -90B. Speeches by Fed Governors Waller and Hammack were also on the session calendar.

At the 20:00 UTC close, no forecast was standing.

What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 7637.2 on 9 September at 15:00 UTC.

Before the American session 7669.8 to 7663.6 (-6.2 points), range 33.3

The upward forecast issued on 2 September was withdrawn at 09:00 UTC after price set a new extreme before pulling back to the entry zone.

Looking ahead to the US session, major economic data includes the ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC, with a forecast of 54.3. Earlier at 12:30 UTC, Initial Jobless Claims are scheduled with an expected reading of 205K alongside a speech from Fed Governor Waller.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 205K, previous 204K
• 12:30 UTC US Exports
• 12:30 UTC US Imports
• 12:30 UTC US Balance of Trade — forecast -90B, previous -71.2B
• 12:30 UTC US Fed Waller Speech
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Services PMI — forecast 54.3, previous 54.1

2 September the day: 7637.1 to 7669.9 (+32.8 points), range 72.5

Before the European session 7632.9 to 7625.4 (-7.5 points), range 18.7

Released during this session:

• 20:50 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -2.6M against a forecast of -0.8M (below forecast), previous 4.2M

The downward forecast issued at 16:00 UTC on 1 September remained standing at the 05:00 UTC close, with the index finishing 20.7 points above its target of 7604.7 and 72.0 points below the invalidation level at 7697.4.

During the window, the API Crude Oil Stock Change was reported at -2.6M compared to the forecasted -0.8M.

1 September the day: 7691.0 to 7633.4 (-57.6 points), range 86.5

Before the American session 7682.0 to 7645.6 (-36.4 points), range 57.4

Resolved here: the forecast issued 27 August at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 7659.0, at 08:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 31 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 7656.6, at 08:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash — 2.4% against a forecast of 2.5% (below forecast), previous 2.5%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate MoM Flash — 0.4%, previous 0.2%
• 09:00 UTC EU Unemployment Rate — 6.4% against a forecast of 6.3% (above forecast), previous 6.4%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash — 3.3% against a forecast of 3.3% (in line with forecast), previous 2.9%

Major US economic releases are scheduled ahead in the session, led by JOLTs Job Openings at 14:00 UTC with an expected reading of 7.3M, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 14:00 UTC with a forecast of 55.2. Fed Barr is also scheduled to speak at 13:05 UTC. Earlier in the morning window, Eurozone flash YoY inflation matched expectations at 3.3%.

The downward forecast issued on 31 August remained standing at 11:00 UTC, with the market closing 5.0 points above its continuation target.

Due in the next session:

• 13:05 UTC US Fed Barr Speech
• 14:00 UTC US JOLTs Job Openings — forecast 7.3M, previous 7.182M
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Manufacturing PMI — forecast 55.2, previous 55.6
• 14:00 UTC US ISM Manufacturing Employment

Before the European session 7686.3 to 7681.9 (-4.4 points), range 16.0

Ahead of the European session, major economic data is expected at 09:00 UTC, when the EU Flash Inflation Rate YoY is forecast at 3.3%.

The downward forecast issued at 17:00 UTC on 31 August was still standing at 05:00 UTC. At the close of the window, price sat 41.3 points from its continuation target at 7640.6 and 52.6 points clear of the invalidation level at 7734.5.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.5%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate MoM Flash
• 09:00 UTC EU Unemployment Rate — forecast 6.3%, previous 6.4%
• 09:00 UTC EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash — forecast 3.3%, previous 2.9%

31 August the day: 7712.1 to 7690.8 (-21.3 points), range 48.4

At the close 7698.6 to 7685.3 (-13.3 points), range 35.8

Resolved here: the forecast issued 27 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 7669.9, at 14:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 14:30 UTC US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index — 11.6, previous 1.3

A downward forecast issued at 05:00 UTC was withdrawn at 14:00 UTC after a new extreme occurred before a pull-back to the entry zone. Because the trend moved in the anticipated direction before reaching the corridor, the call was taken down to be redrawn from the new price level and does not count against the rule's record.

The US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index landed at 14:30 UTC at 11.6, against a previous reading of 1.3.

No forecast was standing at the close.

Before the American session 7689.1 to 7698.4 (+9.3 points), range 16.7

A downward forecast issued at 05:00 UTC remained standing at 11:00 UTC, targeting a continuation level of 7648.0 against an invalidation level at 7747.3.

Ahead in the American session, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is scheduled for release at 14:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 14:30 UTC US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

Before the European session 7712.1 to 7689.4 (-22.7 points), range 39.7

The overnight window spanned 39.7 points, trading across a 2.7 ATR range as the market moved lower heading into the European open.