SPX500 forecast review, 12 to 18 October 2026
The last forecast of the week
Issued 2026-10-16 19:00 UTC, downward, from a zone between 7685.8 and 7702.6. The next level is 7643.8.
It had not resolved as of 2026-10-19 04:00 UTC: price had not reached its level.
Readings on this market have taken a median of 30 hours to reach the level they named, over the 63 that have.
Session by session
16 October the day: 7741.9 to 7652.3 (-89.6 points), range 131.5
At the close 7756.7 to 7658.7 (-98.0 points), range 131.0
Released during this session:
- US Import Prices MoM — 1.1% against a forecast of 0.8% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
- US Export Prices MoM — 2.2% against a forecast of 1% (above forecast), previous 1.2%
- US Industrial Production MoM — 0.7% against a forecast of 0.4% (above forecast), previous 0.1%
- US Monthly Budget Statement — -27B against a forecast of -29B (above forecast), previous -167B
An upward bounce forecast issued at 04:00 UTC was withdrawn at 16:00 UTC. Earlier in the day at 03:00 UTC, a downward bounce call from 14 October was dropped. At 19:00 UTC, a new downward bounce forecast was issued toward a target of 7643.8, standing 0.0 points from price at the 20:00 UTC close.
In macroeconomic news, Fed Chair Warsh spoke early in the day, though no reading is available for the event. During the session, US Import Prices MoM crossed at 1.1% against the 0.8% forecast, while US Export Prices MoM printed at 2.2% against an expected 1%. US Industrial Production MoM came in at 0.7% compared to the 0.4% forecast, and the US Monthly Budget Statement was reported at -27B against -29B expected.
Due in the next session:
- US Net Long-term TIC Flows — forecast 75.2B, previous -27.9B
- US Fed Goolsbee Speech
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
Before the American session 7758.9 to 7756.4 (-2.5 points), range 15.2
Released during this session:
- EU Balance of Trade — -16.1B, previous 10.7B
An upward bounce forecast issued at 04:00 UTC remained live through the session, with price ending 35.7 points from the target band at 7720.7.
During the window, EU balance of trade figures landed at -16.1B. Ahead in the US session, import and export price figures are scheduled at 12:30 UTC, followed by industrial production data at 13:15 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Import Prices MoM — forecast 0.8%, previous 0.5%
- US Export Prices MoM — forecast 1%, previous 1.2%
- US Industrial Production MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%
Before the European session 7743.4 to 7759.2 (+15.8 points), range 31.6
Released during this session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
- US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
A downward bounce forecast issued on 14 October ended at 03:00 UTC as price dropped without reaching the target band.
Fed Chair Warsh spoke at 03:30 UTC during the window. At 04:00 UTC, a fresh upward bounce forecast was issued and was still standing at the close, 37.5 points from its target.
Due in the next session:
- EU Balance of Trade
15 October the day: 7720.2 to 7743.4 (+23.2 points), range 84.7
At the close 7697.8 to 7743.7 (+45.9 points), range 84.7
Released during this session:
- US PPI MoM — 1.3% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 0.5%
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — 20.9 against a forecast of 28.4 (below forecast), previous 37.8
- US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — 0.1% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 1.2%
- US Core PPI MoM — 0.7% against a forecast of 0.3% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
- US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — 25.5 against a forecast of 10.3 (above forecast), previous 7.6
- US Initial Jobless Claims — 199K against a forecast of 200K (below forecast), previous 198K
- US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — 0.9% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous 1.4%
- US Retail Sales MoM — 0.8% against a forecast of 0.3% (above forecast), previous 1.3%
- US Business Inventories MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.9%
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — 3.6% against a forecast of 3.6% (in line with forecast), previous 3.6%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 3.518M against a forecast of -0.5M (above forecast), previous 0.382M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -8.557M against a forecast of -0.3M (below forecast), previous -3.186M
Major US data releases landed early in the session at 12:30 UTC, with PPI MoM printing at 1.3% against a 0.5% forecast and Retail Sales MoM coming in at 0.8% versus an expected 0.3%. Core PPI MoM also arrived above expectations at 0.7% alongside a 25.5 reading on the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index against a 10.3 forecast.
At the close, the down-trend bounce forecast issued on 14 October was still standing, with the index finishing the session 60.7 points short of the 7804.4 target.
Ahead in the schedule, Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to speak at 03:30 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
- US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
Before the American session 7697.8 to 7697.6 (-0.2 points), range 24.4
Released during this session:
- EU Industrial Production MoM — -0.5% against a forecast of 0% (below forecast), previous -0.3%
Major US economic data is scheduled ahead at 12:30 UTC, led by Retail Sales MoM, expected at 0.3%, and PPI MoM, expected at 0.5%. Earlier in the session, European Industrial Production MoM was released at -0.5% against a forecast of 0%.
No forecasts resolved during the window. A down-trend forecast for a bounce leg, issued on 14 October with a target of 7804.4 and a zone between 7832.0 and 7843.0, was still standing at 11:00 UTC, with the index 106.8 points from the target.
Due in the next session:
- US PPI MoM — forecast 0.5%, previous 0.5%
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — forecast 28.4, previous 37.8
- US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 1.2%
- US Core PPI MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%
- US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — forecast 10.3, previous 7.6
- US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 200K, previous 198K
- US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — forecast 0.5%, previous 1.4%
- US Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 1.3%
- US Business Inventories MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.9%
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow — forecast 3.6%, previous 3.6%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -0.5M, previous 0.382M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast -0.3M, previous -3.186M
Before the European session 7722.5 to 7697.6 (-24.9 points), range 42.2
Released during this session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -11.1M against a forecast of 1.9M (below forecast), previous -2.09M
- US Fed Bowman Speech
A downward forecast issued at 13:00 UTC on 14 October remained standing at the close of the session, with price sitting 106.8 points from the 7804.4 target off a bounce leg.
During the window, US API crude oil stock changes recorded a draw of -11.1M against an expected 1.9M build, while Fed Governor Bowman was scheduled to speak. Ahead in the European session, Eurozone industrial production figures are scheduled for 09:00 UTC, expected at 0%.
Due in the next session:
- EU Industrial Production MoM — forecast 0%, previous -0.3%
14 October the day: 7807.4 to 7715.3 (-92.1 points), range 135.0
At the close 7820.3 to 7722.7 (-97.6 points), range 135.0
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 7.5%, previous 7.49%
- US CPI s.a — 336.3, previous 334.13
- US CPI — 336.94 against a forecast of 336.65 (above forecast), previous 334.98
- US Core Inflation Rate MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.3%
- US Inflation Rate YoY — 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% (above forecast), previous 3.4%
- US Core Inflation Rate YoY — 2.6% against a forecast of 2.5% (above forecast), previous 2.4%
- US Inflation Rate MoM — 0.6% against a forecast of 0.6% (in line with forecast), previous 0.4%
- US Fed Barkin Speech
At 12:00 UTC, an upward bounce forecast issued on 09 October dropped, while three bounce calls issued earlier in the day were withdrawn. At 12:30 UTC, US inflation figures showed Inflation Rate YoY at 3.7% against a 3.6% forecast, Core Inflation Rate YoY at 2.6% against a 2.5% forecast, and Core Inflation Rate MoM at 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast.
At 13:00 UTC, a downward bounce forecast was issued targeting 7804.4. At the close, it was still standing with price 81.7 points from the target.
Due in the next session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast 1.9M, previous -2.09M
- US Fed Bowman Speech
Before the American session 7825.0 to 7820.5 (-4.5 points), range 17.7
Released during this session:
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- US Fed Bowman Speech
Major US inflation prints are scheduled for 12:30 UTC ahead of the American session. Calendar expectations sit at 0.2% for Core Inflation Rate MoM, 3.6% for Inflation Rate YoY, 2.5% for Core Inflation Rate YoY, and 0.6% for Inflation Rate MoM. Earlier in the session, ECB President Lagarde spoke at 08:30 UTC.
A bounce forecast issued at 05:00 UTC targeting 7825.3 had not resolved at the 11:00 UTC close, with price sitting 4.8 points short of the target.
Due in the next session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- US CPI s.a
- US CPI — forecast 336.65, previous 334.98
- US Core Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.2%, previous 0.3%
- US Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 3.6%, previous 3.4%
- US Core Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.4%
- US Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.6%, previous 0.4%
Before the European session 7807.2 to 7825.3 (+18.1 points), range 25.5
Released during this session:
- US Fed Collins Speech
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
A forecast for a bounce was issued at 04:00 UTC, pointing to a target band of 7824.8 from a zone between 7789.6 and 7799.7. At the close of the window, price stood 0.5 points from that target.
ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 08:30 UTC, followed by Fed Bowman at 09:40 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- US Fed Bowman Speech
13 October the day: 7808.3 to 7808.2 (-0.1 points), range 28.5
Before the European session 7806.8 to 7792.4 (-14.4 points), range 26.0
An upward bounce forecast issued on 9 October was still standing at 05:00 UTC, pointing to a target at 7784.7 from a zone between 7740.7 and 7753.2. At the end of the session, the quote sat 7.7 points above that target level.
Fed Waller is scheduled to speak later in the morning at 07:45 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Waller Speech
12 October the day: 7823.4 to 7806.8 (-16.6 points), range 41.5
At the close 7816.1 to 7807.0 (-9.1 points), range 24.8
Released during this session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
A bounce forecast issued on 9 October was still standing at the 20:00 UTC close, with the index finishing 22.3 points above its 7784.7 target.
Fed Hammack spoke at 16:50 UTC during the session.
Before the American session 7837.6 to 7815.8 (-21.8 points), range 23.3
A standing upward forecast issued on 9 October remained unresolved at 11:00 UTC. The call projects a bounce from a zone between 7740.7 and 7753.2 towards a target at 7784.7, with the close finishing 31.1 points away from that target.
Looking ahead to the US session, a speech by Fed Official Hammack is scheduled for 16:50 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Hammack Speech
How the week ended
How the week ended
| Forecasts that ended this week | 6 |
|---|---|
| Reached the level they named | 0 |
| Ended without reaching it | 6 |
| Issued this week | 8 |
| Still standing on Sunday | 3 |
| Week open to close | 7823.4 to 7652.3 (-171.1 points) |
| Week range | 7631.9 to 7838.3 (206.4 points) |
The week
During the week of 12 to 18 October 2026, six forecasts ended for SPX500, with zero reaching their target band. Eight new forecasts were issued during this period, leaving three still open by the end of Sunday.
SPX500 opened the week at 7823.4 and closed at 7652.3, representing a change of -171.1 points. The market spanned a high of 7838.3 and a low of 7631.9, resulting in a total weekly range of 206.4 points.
A forecast issued on 16 October set a down trend with a target of 7643.8, projecting a return bounce between the lower edge of the zone at 7685.8 and the upper edge at 7702.6. That forecast ended with a final result of failed.
Every forecast that ended this week
| Issued | Direction | Corridor | Continuation | Invalidation | Reached | Ended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 04:00 | up | 7666.8 - 7682.2 | 7720.7 | bounce | 2026-10-16 16:00 | |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 | down | 7832.0 - 7843.0 | 7804.4 | bounce | 2026-10-16 03:00 | |
| 2026-10-09 19:00 | up | 7740.7 - 7753.2 | 7784.7 | bounce | 2026-10-14 12:00 | |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 | up | 7782.8 - 7792.9 | 7818.3 | bounce | 2026-10-14 12:00 | |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 | up | 7789.6 - 7799.7 | 7824.8 | bounce | 2026-10-14 12:00 | |
| 2026-10-14 05:00 | up | 7791.0 - 7800.8 | 7825.3 | bounce | 2026-10-14 12:00 |
On the calendar this week
- 12 October, 16:50 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 13 October, 07:45 UTC - US Fed Waller Speech
- 13 October, 12:15 UTC - US ADP Employment Change Weekly
- 13 October, 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales MoM
- 13 October, 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales
- 13 October, 17:00 UTC - US Fed Barkin Speech
- 13 October, 20:00 UTC - US Fed Collins Speech
- 14 October, 02:10 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- 14 October, 08:30 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- 14 October, 09:40 UTC - US Fed Bowman Speech
- 14 October, 11:00 UTC - US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US CPI s.a
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US CPI
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Core Inflation Rate MoM
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Inflation Rate YoY
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Core Inflation Rate YoY
- 14 October, 12:30 UTC - US Inflation Rate MoM
- 14 October, 17:30 UTC - US Fed Barkin Speech
- 14 October, 21:00 UTC - US API Crude Oil Stock Change
- 15 October, 02:55 UTC - US Fed Bowman Speech
- 15 October, 09:00 UTC - EU Industrial Production MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US PPI MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales Control Group MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Core PPI MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Initial Jobless Claims
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
- 15 October, 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales MoM
- 15 October, 14:00 UTC - US Business Inventories MoM
- 15 October, 15:30 UTC - US Atlanta Fed GDPNow
- 15 October, 16:00 UTC - US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
- 15 October, 16:00 UTC - US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- 15 October, 20:30 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 16 October, 03:30 UTC - US Fed Chair Warsh Speech
- 16 October, 09:00 UTC - EU Balance of Trade
- 16 October, 12:30 UTC - US Import Prices MoM
- 16 October, 12:30 UTC - US Export Prices MoM
- 16 October, 13:15 UTC - US Industrial Production MoM
- 16 October, 18:00 UTC - US Monthly Budget Statement
- 16 October, 20:00 UTC - US Net Long-term TIC Flows
- 16 October, 22:00 UTC - US Fed Goolsbee Speech
- 17 October, 05:00 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech