Turnmarks

SPX500 forecast review, 2 to 8 November 2026

The last forecast of the week

S&P 500 index (SPX500) hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-11-05

Issued 2026-11-05 22:00 UTC, downward, from a zone between 7433.1 and 7467.9. The next level is 7346.2.

It reached its level, 7346.2, at 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC — after this week had closed.

Readings on this market have taken a median of 30 hours to reach the level they named, over the 47 that have.

Session by session

6 November the day: 7338.9 to 7381.6 (+42.7 points), range 147.4

At the close 7378.0 to 7377.7 (-0.3 points), range 88.4

S&P 500 index (SPX500) hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-11-06

Released during this session:

US Non-Farm Payrolls arrived at 165K against a 65K forecast, alongside an Unemployment Rate of 4.1% compared to the projected 4.2%. Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment for the US landed at 51 against a 48 forecast. Earlier in the day, EU Retail Sales MoM showed a reading of -0.7% against a forecast of -0.1%.

At the close, a downward forecast issued on 5 November targeting 7346.2 on a bounce leg remained standing, with price sitting 31.5 points short of the target.

What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 7346.2 on 8 November at 23:00 UTC.

Before the American session 7351.9 to 7378.3 (+26.4 points), range 74.3

Released during this session:

Major US economic releases are scheduled ahead of the open, led by Non Farm Payrolls (forecast 65K) and the Unemployment Rate (forecast 4.2%) at 13:30 UTC, followed by preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 15:00 UTC (forecast 48.2). Earlier in the window, EU Retail Sales MoM reported at -0.7% against a forecast of -0.1%, and a speech by Fed Williams was scheduled at 09:30 UTC.

A downward forecast issued at 22:00 UTC on 5 November targeting 7346.2 on a bounce leg had not resolved by 12:00 UTC, with price standing 32.1 points from the target band at the end of the session.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 7354.8 to 7352.0 (-2.8 points), range 95.1

Released during this session:

A downward bounce forecast was issued at 22:00 UTC targeting 7346.2, with a zone between 7433.1 and 7467.9. At 06:00 UTC it had not resolved, with price finishing 5.8 points from the target.

During the session, Fed Logan spoke at 00:00 UTC. Ahead in the coming session, Fed Williams is scheduled to speak at 09:30 UTC, followed by EU Retail Sales MoM at 10:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

5 November the day: 7706.7 to 7346.2 (-360.5 points), range 378.3

At the close 7706.6 to 7354.9 (-351.7 points), range 359.4

S&P 500 index (SPX500) hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-11-05

Released during this session:

An earlier bullish forecast calling for a bounce dropped at 14:00 UTC, missing its zone as price moved down.

Economic releases arriving at 13:30 UTC included Initial Jobless Claims at 189K against a forecast of 196K, Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Prel at 3.6% versus a 2.8% forecast, and Unit Labour Costs QoQ Prel at -0.7% against an expected 0.6%. Speeches by Fed officials Hammack and Barkin, along with ECB President Lagarde, were scheduled later in the session.

At 18:00 UTC, a fresh bearish forecast was issued expecting a bounce, with its target band sitting 39.1 points below the session close.

Due in the next session:

What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 7354.9 on 8 November at 23:00 UTC.

Before the American session 7664.8 to 7706.8 (+42.0 points), range 43.1

S&P 500 index (SPX500) hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-11-05

Released during this session:

An upward forecast issued on 4 November for a bounce toward 7560.4 had not resolved by 12:00 UTC, with the market closing 146.4 points from the target band.

During the window, no reading was available for the EU S&P Global Construction PMI scheduled at 08:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 7691.2 to 7665.1 (-26.1 points), range 45.9

An upward forecast for a bounce towards 7560.4, issued at 10:00 UTC on 4 November, was still standing at the close of the window, with price 104.7 points from the target band.

The upcoming European session brings the Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMI at 08:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

4 November the day: 7582.2 to 7701.8 (+119.6 points), range 253.5

At the close 7655.7 to 7690.7 (+35.0 points), range 93.0

Released during this session:

Earlier in the day, a downward bounce forecast issued on 2 November at 21:00 UTC reached its target of 7544.9 at 00:00 UTC.

In US economic releases during the window, the major ISM Services PMI landed at 54.5 against a forecast of 54.8. Earlier in the day, the EU Flash Inflation Rate printed at 4%, matching expectations.

An upward bounce forecast issued at 10:00 UTC with a zone between 7476.6 and 7500.6 and a target of 7560.4 had not resolved by the close, finishing 130.3 points from the target.

Before the American session 7539.5 to 7656.7 (+117.2 points), range 123.1

Released during this session:

The EU Flash Inflation Rate YoY printed at 4%, matching the forecast.

Five downward bounce forecasts ended during the window. A forecast issued at 03:00 UTC failed at 08:00 UTC, while four earlier downward bounce calls ended at 09:00 UTC—one dropped and three withdrawn.

A new upward bounce forecast was issued at 10:00 UTC targeting 7560.4 from a zone of 7476.6 to 7500.6. At the close of the window, it was still standing with price 96.3 points from the target band. Later in the US session, the ISM Services PMI is scheduled for 15:00 UTC with a forecast of 54.8.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 7567.8 to 7539.7 (-28.1 points), range 143.1

S&P 500 index (SPX500) hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-11-04

Resolved here: the forecast issued 2 November at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 7544.9, at 00:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

Major economic calendar events scheduled ahead include the EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash at 10:00 UTC, with forecasts at 3.9% and 4.0%.

A downward forecast issued on 2 November at 21:00 UTC reached its target on a bounce leg at 00:00 UTC.

Earlier in the window at 21:30 UTC, the US API Crude Oil Stock Change was published at -5.267M against a forecast of 1.75M. A fresh downward forecast was issued at 03:00 UTC on a bounce leg, and at the close, it sat 60.7 points from its target.

Due in the next session:

3 November the day: 7548.9 to 7568.1 (+19.2 points), range 79.4

At the close 7529.9 to 7567.3 (+37.4 points), range 69.7

S&P 500 index (SPX500) hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-11-03

Released during this session:

US JOLTs Job Openings printed at 7.523M against a 7.1M forecast at 15:00 UTC, while US Factory Orders MoM came in at 1.8% against an expected 1.2%.

The downward bounce forecast issued on 2 November was still standing at the close, with price sitting 22.4 points from its 7544.9 target.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 7526.6 to 7530.5 (+3.9 points), range 31.8

Major economic data lies ahead in the US session, led by JOLTs Job Openings scheduled for 15:00 UTC with an expectation of 7.13M. Factory Orders MoM is also set for release at 15:00 UTC with a forecast of 1.2%.

A downward bounce forecast issued on 2 November at 21:00 UTC had not resolved by the close of the window at 12:00 UTC. The call projects a move from the 7594.5 to 7614.4 zone toward a target of 7544.9, with price sitting 14.4 points from that target level at the end of the session.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 7544.7 to 7526.7 (-18.0 points), range 34.3

Released during this session:

A downward forecast issued at 21:00 UTC with a bounce leg was standing at 06:00 UTC, with price sitting 18.2 points from the target at 7544.9. The zone for the move spans 7594.5 to 7614.4.

US Midterm Elections were scheduled at 00:00 UTC within the window, for which no reading is available.

2 November the day: 7595.2 to 7553.5 (-41.7 points), range 122.3

At the close 7617.3 to 7544.9 (-72.4 points), range 122.3

S&P 500 index (SPX500) hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-11-02

Released during this session:

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI landed at 15:00 UTC at 55.5, against a 54.6 forecast, while ISM Manufacturing Employment reached 52.4. Fed Goolsbee was also scheduled to speak at 16:15 UTC.

A downward bounce forecast was issued at 20:00 UTC targeting 7575.7 from a zone between 7623.0 and 7642.0. At the close, it had not resolved, with price sitting 30.8 points from the target.

Ahead in the upcoming session, US Midterm Elections are scheduled for 00:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 7622.6 to 7617.6 (-5.0 points), range 20.4

S&P 500 index (SPX500) hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-11-02

Major US data lies ahead in the coming session, with ISM Manufacturing PMI scheduled for release at 15:00 UTC with an expected reading of 54.6. Fed Goolsbee is also scheduled to speak later at 16:15 UTC.

A downward forecast issued on 29 October, seeking a bounce leg, remained live at the close of the European window, sitting 96.5 points from its target.

Due in the next session:

How the week ended

How the week ended

Forecasts that ended this week7
Reached the level they named1
Ended without reaching it6
Issued this week11
Still standing on Sunday5
Week open to close7595.2 to 7381.6 (-213.6 points)
Week range7296.5 to 7715.5 (419.0 points)

The week

During the week of 2 to 8 November 2026, 7 forecasts for SPX500 concluded. Of these settled forecasts, 1 reached its target band and 6 ended another way. System rules issued 11 new forecasts throughout the week, with 5 remaining open by Sunday's close.

Over the full session, SPX500 opened at 7595.2 and closed at 7381.6, reflecting a change of -213.6 points. The price logged a high of 7715.5 and a low of 7296.5, spanning a total range of 419.0 points.

The system published a downward forecast pointing toward a target of 7346.2, set from a zone bounded by a lower edge of 7433.1 and an upper edge of 7467.9. This forecast reached its target at the end of the week.

Every forecast that ended this week

IssuedDirectionCorridorContinuationInvalidationReachedEnded
2026-11-04 10:00up7476.6 - 7500.67560.4bounce2026-11-05 14:00
2026-10-29 23:00down7761.0 - 7779.87714.1bounce2026-11-04 09:00
2026-11-02 20:00down7623.0 - 7642.07575.7bounce2026-11-04 09:00
2026-11-04 01:00down7613.8 - 7632.07568.1bounce2026-11-04 09:00
2026-11-04 02:00down7567.1 - 7588.47513.7bounce2026-11-04 09:00
2026-11-04 03:00down7534.2 - 7556.37479.0bounce2026-11-04 08:00
2026-11-02 21:00down7594.5 - 7614.47544.9bounce2026-11-04 00:00

On the calendar this week

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