US30 forecast review, 7 to 13 September 2026

11 September the day: 52062.6 to 52570.5 (+507.9 points), range 666.2

At the close 52362.8 to 52567.1 (+204.3 points), range 444.4

Resolved here: the forecast issued 10 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 52500.3, at 12:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate YoY — 2.4% against a forecast of 2.4% (in line with forecast), previous 2.5%
• 12:30 UTC US CPI — 334.98 against a forecast of 334.85 (above forecast), previous 333.92
• 12:30 UTC US CPI s.a — 334.131, previous 332.81
• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate YoY — 3.4% against a forecast of 3.4% (in line with forecast), previous 3.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — 47.8 against a forecast of 51 (below forecast), previous 51.7
• 14:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
• 18:00 UTC US Monthly Budget Statement — -167B against a forecast of -404B (above forecast), previous -432B

A downward reversal forecast target of 52500.3 was reached at 13:00 UTC, shortly after the release of US inflation figures where US Core Inflation Rate MoM landed at 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast, while YoY core inflation was reported at 2.4%. Later in the session at 14:00 UTC, preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in at 47.8, below the expected 51.

At the close, a separate downward reversal forecast target of 52847.6 issued on September 9 was still standing, with price sitting 265.0 points away.

Before the American session 52215.1 to 52362.4 (+147.3 points), range 192.2

Major US inflation figures are scheduled ahead of the American session at 12:30 UTC, led by year-on-year Core Inflation Rate expected at 2.4%, year-on-year Inflation Rate expected at 3.4%, and month-on-month Inflation Rate expected at 0.4%. Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment follows at 14:00 UTC with a forecast of 51.

At the end of the window, a downward reversal forecast targeting 52500.3 remained standing, with price sitting 137.9 points below the target level.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 2.4%, previous 2.5%
• 12:30 UTC US CPI — forecast 334.85, previous 333.92
• 12:30 UTC US CPI s.a
• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.2%, previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 3.4%, previous 3.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — forecast 51, previous 51.7
• 14:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

Before the European session 52058.6 to 52215.9 (+157.3 points), range 200.3

A downward reversal forecast was issued at 21:00 UTC on 10 September, targeting 52500.3. At the end of the window at 05:00 UTC, the setup was still standing, with the market 284.4 points away from the target level.

10 September the day: 52442.4 to 52094.0 (-348.4 points), range 672.5

At the close 52492.9 to 51996.5 (-496.4 points), range 540.3

Resolved here: the forecast issued 31 July at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 52056.5, at 14:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 12:15 UTC EU Deposit Facility Rate — 2.5% against a forecast of 2.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.25%
• 12:15 UTC EU ECB Interest Rate Decision — 2.65% against a forecast of 2.65% (in line with forecast), previous 2.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 206K against a forecast of 205K (above forecast), previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Core PPI MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US PPI MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
• 12:45 UTC EU ECB Press Conference
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales — 3.98M against a forecast of 3.98M (in line with forecast), previous 4.06M
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales MoM — -2%, previous -1.7%
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 1.269M against a forecast of -1.4M (above forecast), previous -1.173M
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -0.391M against a forecast of -1.6M (above forecast), previous -4.45M

A bounce leg forecast issued on 31 July resolved during the session as price reached its target. In economic releases, US PPI MoM printed at 0.4%, matching expectations, while Core PPI MoM came in at 0.2% against a 0.3% forecast. US Existing Home Sales landed at 3.98M, matching expectations, and the ECB Interest Rate Decision was delivered at 2.65% as expected, followed by the ECB press conference for which no reading is available.

At the close, a reversal leg forecast issued on 9 September was still standing, with price sitting 788.0 points from its target.

Before the American session 52574.4 to 52493.9 (-80.5 points), range 194.3

Major economic releases scheduled ahead of the US session include US PPI MoM at 12:30 UTC, expected at 0.4%, alongside EU rate decisions at 12:15 UTC and US Existing Home Sales at 14:00 UTC, with a forecast of 3.98M.

At the close of the window, a downward reversal forecast issued at 21:00 UTC on 9 September had not resolved, with its target at 52847.6 points sitting 353.7 points above the market.

Due in the next session:

• 12:15 UTC EU Deposit Facility Rate — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.25%
• 12:15 UTC EU ECB Interest Rate Decision — forecast 2.65%, previous 2.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 205K, previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Core PPI MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US PPI MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%
• 12:45 UTC EU ECB Press Conference
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales — forecast 3.98M, previous 4.06M
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales MoM
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -1.4M, previous -1.173M
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast -1.6M, previous -4.45M

Before the European session 52406.1 to 52573.9 (+167.8 points), range 186.0

Released during this session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -0.3M against a forecast of -1.3M (above forecast), previous -2.6M

A new down-trend reversal forecast was issued at 21:00 UTC, pointing to a target at 52847.6. At 05:00 UTC, the forecast was still standing with 273.7 points remaining to its target.

In scheduled economic releases, the US API Crude Oil Stock Change arrived at -0.3M against an expected -1.3M.

9 September the day: 52787.4 to 52428.6 (-358.8 points), range 516.4

At the close 52460.7 to 52405.7 (-55.0 points), range 265.3

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.85%, previous 6.79%
• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 12K, previous 10K
• 17:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

Earlier in the day, a pull-back forecast issued on 3 August reached its target at 09:00 UTC.

During the session, US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rates landed at 6.85% alongside the weekly ADP Employment Change at 12K. ECB President Lagarde was also scheduled to speak.

At the close, a reversal forecast issued at 06:00 UTC had not resolved, with price sitting 766.4 points from its target.

Due in the next session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast -1.3M, previous -2.6M

Before the American session 52790.4 to 52455.5 (-334.9 points), range 373.1

Resolved here: the forecast issued 3 August at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 52551.3, at 09:00 UTC.

A pull-back leg reached its target during the session, resolving an upward forecast that had been standing since August. Meanwhile, a new downward forecast was issued at 06:00 UTC on a reversal leg; at the end of the window, price sat 716.6 points below its target.

Ahead of the American session, the US calendar includes the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate and the weekly ADP Employment Change release.

Due in the next session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly

Before the European session 52803.6 to 52789.9 (-13.7 points), range 73.2

A downward reversal forecast targeting 53232.6 was issued at 21:00 UTC under governing level S5. At the close of the window, it was still standing, with the price 442.7 points from the target.

8 September the day: 53089.4 to 52775.7 (-313.7 points), range 426.3

Before the American session 53082.2 to 52990.0 (-92.2 points), range 199.3

A pull-back forecast targeting 53142.5 was issued at 06:00 UTC. At 11:00 UTC, the call was still standing, with the index sitting 152.5 points short of the target.

Ahead of the American session, the US ADP Employment Change Weekly release is scheduled for 12:15 UTC, following a previous reading of 11.75K.

Before the European session 53089.4 to 53081.5 (-7.9 points), range 137.0

A downward pull-back forecast issued at 21:00 UTC on 7 September was standing at the close, targeting the 53159.3 level. Price ended the session 77.8 points below that target at 53081.5.

7 September the day: 53219.5 to 53070.6 (-148.9 points), range 294.3

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.