WTI forecast review, 7 to 13 September 2026
The last forecast of the week
Issued 2026-09-11 21:00 UTC, downward, from a zone between 97.07 and 97.98. The next level is 97.98.
It had not resolved as of 2026-09-16 04:00 UTC: price had not reached its level.
Readings on this market have taken a median of 39 hours to reach the level they named, over the 89 that have.
Session by session
11 September the day: 104.15 to 99.95 (-420.0 cents), range 597.0
At the close 98.85 to 100.59 (+174.0 cents), range 226.0
Resolved here: the forecast issued 11 September at 12:00 reached its invalidation level, 100.72, at 19:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US Core Inflation Rate YoY — 2.4% against a forecast of 2.4% (in line with forecast), previous 2.5%
- US CPI — 334.98 against a forecast of 334.85 (above forecast), previous 333.92
- US CPI s.a — 334.131, previous 332.81
- US Core Inflation Rate MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
- US Inflation Rate YoY — 3.4% against a forecast of 3.4% (in line with forecast), previous 3.4%
- US Inflation Rate MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — 47.8 against a forecast of 51 (below forecast), previous 51.7
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- US Monthly Budget Statement — -167B against a forecast of -404B (above forecast), previous -432B
Two forecasts resolved earlier in the day prior to this window. The 06:00 UTC continuation call reached its target of 99.91 at 08:00 UTC, followed by the 2026-09-10 21:00 UTC reversal call reaching its 99.52 target at 10:00 UTC. At the close, an earlier upward reversal forecast issued on 2026-09-10 at 06:00 UTC remained standing, with its 93.76 target sitting 668.0 cents away.
Key US data arrived during the session. At 12:30 UTC, US Core Inflation Rate MoM printed at 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast, while YoY Inflation Rate matched expectations at 3.4%. Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures landed at 14:00 UTC with a reading of 47.8 versus the projected 51.
Before the American session 102.29 to 98.85 (-344.0 cents), range 360.0
Resolved here: the forecast issued 10 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 99.52, at 09:00 UTC.
Resolved here: the forecast issued 11 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 99.91, at 08:00 UTC.
Two forecasts reached their targets during the window. The continuation forecast issued earlier in the morning resolved first, followed an hour later by the reversal forecast issued on 10 September. An earlier reversal forecast from 10 September remained live at the close, sitting 509 cents from its target.
Looking ahead to the American session, major US inflation prints are scheduled for 12:30 UTC, with annual core inflation expected at 2.4% and the main year-on-year rate forecasted at 3.4%. Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures follow at 14:00 UTC, with a forecast of 51.
Due in the next session:
- US Core Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 2.4%, previous 2.5%
- US CPI — forecast 334.85, previous 333.92
- US CPI s.a
- US Core Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.2%, previous 0.2%
- US Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 3.4%, previous 3.4%
- US Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — forecast 51, previous 51.7
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
Before the European session 102.74 to 102.30 (-44.0 cents), range 239.0
A reversal forecast was issued at 21:00 UTC with an upward trend targeting 99.52 cents. At the close of the window, the forecast had not resolved, with price sitting 278.0 cents away from the target level.
10 September the day: 96.81 to 103.91 (+710.0 cents), range 864.0
At the close 97.20 to 101.95 (+475.0 cents), range 592.0
Released during this session:
- EU Deposit Facility Rate — 2.5% against a forecast of 2.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.25%
- EU ECB Interest Rate Decision — 2.65% against a forecast of 2.65% (in line with forecast), previous 2.4%
- US Initial Jobless Claims — 206K against a forecast of 205K (above forecast), previous 207K
- US Core PPI MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.3%
- US PPI MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
- EU ECB Press Conference
- US Existing Home Sales — 3.98M against a forecast of 3.98M (in line with forecast), previous 4.06M
- US Existing Home Sales MoM — -2%, previous -1.7%
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 1.269M against a forecast of -1.4M (above forecast), previous -1.173M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -0.391M against a forecast of -1.6M (above forecast), previous -4.45M
At the close, an upward reversal forecast targeting 93.76 had not resolved, with price finishing 897.0 cents above the level.
The window included major economic data, with US PPI MoM matching expectations at 0.4% and US Existing Home Sales coming in on forecast at 3.98M. In Europe, the ECB Interest Rate Decision landed as expected at 2.65%, while the ECB Press Conference was held with no published reading available. EIA inventory data showed crude oil stocks falling by 0.391M against a forecasted drawdown of 1.6M.
Before the American session 96.07 to 97.21 (+114.0 cents), range 245.0
Major scheduled releases ahead in the session include the ECB interest rate decision at 12:15 UTC, with forecasts of 2.65% for the main rate and 2.5% for the deposit facility rate. US PPI is scheduled for 12:30 UTC with an expected reading of 0.4%, followed by the ECB press conference at 12:45 UTC and US existing home sales at 14:00 UTC, forecast at 3.98M.
A live forecast issued at 06:00 UTC targets 93.76 on a reversal leg. At the end of the session, the forecast had not resolved, with price sitting 345.0 cents from the target level.
Due in the next session:
- EU Deposit Facility Rate — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.25%
- EU ECB Interest Rate Decision — forecast 2.65%, previous 2.4%
- US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 205K, previous 207K
- US Core PPI MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.3%
- US PPI MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%
- EU ECB Press Conference
- US Existing Home Sales — forecast 3.98M, previous 4.06M
- US Existing Home Sales MoM
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -1.4M, previous -1.173M
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast -1.6M, previous -4.45M
Before the European session 96.64 to 96.06 (-58.0 cents), range 169.0
Released during this session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -0.3M against a forecast of -1.3M (above forecast), previous -2.6M
An upward forecast was issued at 21:00 UTC with a reversal leg targeting 93.39. At the close of the session, it was still standing with 267.0 cents remaining to the target.
During the window, the API Crude Oil Stock Change report was released at 21:00 UTC with a reading of -0.3M against an expected -1.3M.
9 September the day: 94.25 to 96.65 (+240.0 cents), range 315.0
At the close 94.89 to 96.64 (+175.0 cents), range 195.0
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.85%, previous 6.79%
- US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 12K, previous 10K
- EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
An upward reversal forecast issued on 8 September targeting 91.51 remained unresolved at the close, with price ending the session 513.0 cents away from the target zone.
In macro releases, the US 30-year mortgage rate came in at 6.85% alongside a weekly ADP employment change of 12K, while ECB President Lagarde was scheduled to speak. Looking ahead to the start of the next session, the US API crude oil stock change is expected at 20:30 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast -1.3M, previous -2.6M
Before the American session 93.98 to 94.89 (+91.0 cents), range 180.0
At the close of the session, an upward reversal forecast targeting 91.51 had not resolved and remained standing, with price finishing 338.0 cents from the level after an 180.0-cent window range.
Ahead in the American session, scheduled calendar releases include the US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate and the weekly ADP Employment Change.
Due in the next session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- US ADP Employment Change Weekly
Before the European session 93.80 to 93.97 (+17.0 cents), range 98.0
A forecast issued at 21:00 UTC called for a reversal leg targeting 91.51, at the upper boundary of a zone extending down to 90.48. At the close of the window, the target sat 246.0 cents away.
8 September the day: 92.61 to 94.23 (+162.0 cents), range 290.0
Before the American session 93.05 to 93.91 (+86.0 cents), range 176.0
Resolved here: the forecast issued 23 July at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 94.15, at 06:00 UTC.
Resolved here: the forecast issued 7 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 93.57, at 05:00 UTC.
Three prior forecasts resolved in succession during the session, each reaching its target on a bounce leg. The calls, originating from June, July, and the previous evening, were all completed in the first two hours of the window.
A fresh upward forecast was issued during the session, seeking a target on a reversal leg. At the close of the window it had not resolved, sitting 320.0 cents away from the target level.
Weekly ADP employment change data is scheduled for release early in the coming US session at 12:15 UTC.
Before the European session 92.61 to 93.04 (+43.0 cents), range 107.0
An upward forecast targeting a bounce to 93.57 was issued at 21:00 UTC. At the close of the window, the level had not been reached and the forecast remained live, with WTI sitting 53.0 cents below the target after trading across a 107.0-cent range.
7 September the day: 91.99 to 92.61 (+62.0 cents), range 243.0
Nothing was worth reporting from this session.
How the week ended
How the week ended
| Forecasts that ended this week | 7 |
|---|---|
| Reached the level they named | 7 |
| Issued this week | 10 |
| Still standing on Sunday | 5 |
| Week open to close | 91.99 to 99.95 (+796.0 cents) |
| Week range | 90.85 to 104.44 (1359.0 cents) |
The week
During the week of 7 to 13 September 2026, 7 forecasts for WTI ended. All 7 reached their target band, while 0 ended without reaching it. A total of 10 forecasts were issued throughout the week, leaving 5 still open at the close on Sunday.
WTI opened at 91.99 and closed at 99.95, spanning a range of 1359.0 cents between a low of 90.85 and a high of 104.44. The net change across the week was 796.0 cents. A forecast published on 11 September 2026 projects a down trend toward a target of 97.98, within a target band spanning from a lower edge of 97.07 to an upper edge of 97.98.
Every forecast that ended this week
| Issued | Direction | Corridor | Continuation | Invalidation | Reached | Ended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 12:00 | down | 100.72 - 101.66 | 100.72 | pull-back | 2026-09-11 19:00 | |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 | up | 98.21 - 99.52 | 99.52 | reversal | 2026-09-11 09:00 | |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 | up | 98.54 - 99.91 | 99.91 | continuation | 2026-09-11 08:00 | |
| 2026-07-23 21:00 | up | 94.15 - 95.04 | 94.15 | bounce | 2026-09-08 06:00 | |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 | up | 93.57 - 94.24 | 93.57 | bounce | 2026-09-08 05:00 | |
| 2026-09-07 06:00 | up | 90.91 - 91.56 | 91.56 | pull-back | 2026-09-07 07:00 | |
| 2026-09-04 21:00 | up | 92.15 - 92.85 | 92.15 | bounce | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
On the calendar this week
- 9 September, 11:00 UTC - US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 9 September, 12:15 UTC - US ADP Employment Change Weekly
- 9 September, 17:00 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- 9 September, 21:00 UTC - US API Crude Oil Stock Change
- 10 September, 12:15 UTC - EU Deposit Facility Rate
- 10 September, 12:15 UTC - EU ECB Interest Rate Decision
- 10 September, 12:30 UTC - US Initial Jobless Claims
- 10 September, 12:30 UTC - US Core PPI MoM
- 10 September, 12:30 UTC - US PPI MoM
- 10 September, 12:45 UTC - EU ECB Press Conference
- 10 September, 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales
- 10 September, 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales MoM
- 10 September, 16:00 UTC - US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
- 10 September, 16:00 UTC - US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- 11 September, 12:30 UTC - US Core Inflation Rate YoY
- 11 September, 12:30 UTC - US CPI
- 11 September, 12:30 UTC - US CPI s.a
- 11 September, 12:30 UTC - US Core Inflation Rate MoM
- 11 September, 12:30 UTC - US Inflation Rate YoY
- 11 September, 12:30 UTC - US Inflation Rate MoM
- 11 September, 14:00 UTC - US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel
- 11 September, 14:00 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
- 11 September, 18:00 UTC - US Monthly Budget Statement
- 12 September, 10:15 UTC - EU ECB President Lagarde Speech