Turnmarks
Menu

WTI forecast review, 14 to 20 September 2026

The last forecast of the week

WTI crude oil (WTI) hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-17

Issued 2026-09-17 01:00 UTC, downward, from a zone between 105.57 and 106.42. The next level is 103.42.

It had not resolved as of 2026-09-21 04:00 UTC: price had not reached its level.

Readings on this market have taken a median of 38 hours to reach the level they named, over the 82 that have.

Session by session

18 September the day: 96.57 to 95.44 (-113.0 cents), range 318.0

Before the European session 101.22 to 96.32 (-490.0 cents), range 521.0

WTI crude oil (WTI) hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-18

WTI posted a 521.0-cent range through the overnight window, moving down from 101.22 to close at 96.32.

At 05:00 UTC, a downward forecast issued on 17 September remained standing, with its target at 103.42 sitting 710.0 cents from the close.

Ahead in the session, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 10:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

17 September the day: 102.06 to 101.21 (-85.0 cents), range 336.0

At the close 100.61 to 101.22 (+61.0 cents), range 331.0

Released during this session:

Earlier in the day, a down-trend bounce forecast issued on 15 September reached its target at 100.40. A second bounce forecast issued at 01:00 UTC remained standing at the close, sitting 220.0 cents away from its 103.42 target.

In US data, Housing Starts printed at 1.275M at 12:30 UTC against a 1.31M forecast, while preliminary Building Permits came in at 1.394M compared to the expected 1.41M.

Before the European session 102.00 to 102.18 (+18.0 cents), range 139.0

Released during this session:

An upward bounce forecast was withdrawn during the session. Following that, a new downward bounce forecast was issued at 01:00 UTC, sitting 14.0 cents from its target at the close of the window.

At 20:00 UTC, US Net Long-term TIC Flows was reported at -27.9B against a forecast of 146.3B.

16 September the day: 105.44 to 101.99 (-345.0 cents), range 464.0

At the close 103.55 to 102.01 (-154.0 cents), range 322.0

WTI crude oil (WTI) hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-16

Released during this session:

US Retail Sales MoM printed at 1.2% against a 0.8% forecast, while the Fed Interest Rate Decision arrived at 4%, matching expectations. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change recorded a drawdown of -0.64M against an expected -1.6M. No readings were available for the scheduled FOMC Economic Projections or the Fed Press Conference.

At the close, the upward bounce forecast issued on 15 September had not resolved, with the market sitting 383.0 cents below the 105.84 target.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 104.61 to 103.55 (-106.0 cents), range 147.0

Released during this session:

US Retail Sales MoM leads the upcoming schedule at 12:30 UTC, with a forecast of 0.8%. Earlier in the session, EU Industrial Production MoM printed at -0.1% compared to a forecast of -0.2%.

A bullish bounce forecast issued at 21:00 UTC on 15 September was still standing at 11:00 UTC, with the price sitting 229.0 cents away from the target.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 105.86 to 104.61 (-125.0 cents), range 185.0

Released during this session:

The API Crude Oil Stock Change print arrived at 21:00 UTC showing 7.14M against an expected -1.8M.

At the end of the window, an up-trend forecast issued at 21:00 UTC was standing. Governed by STC, the call targets 105.84 on a bounce leg out of the 101.50–102.86 zone, with the price finishing 123.0 cents away from the target level.

Due in the next session:

15 September the day: 101.91 to 105.45 (+354.0 cents), range 551.0

At the close 102.56 to 105.85 (+329.0 cents), range 551.0

WTI crude oil (WTI) hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-15

Released during this session:

Earlier in the day at 04:00 UTC, a downward forecast target of 103.25 was reached on a pull-back. A subsequent downward forecast issued at 06:00 UTC with a target of 100.40 on a bounce had not resolved by the close, when price stood 545.0 cents away from the level.

During the window, the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index printed at 7.6 against a forecast of 14.75, while weekly ADP Employment Change came in at 16.25K. Earlier in the day, the European ZEW Economic Sentiment Index landed at 25.8 against an expected 39.9, and the EU Balance of Trade reached 14.2B.

Looking ahead immediately after the close, the US API Crude Oil Stock Change is scheduled for 20:30 UTC with a forecast of -1.8M.

Due in the next session:

What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 100.40 on 17 September at 06:00 UTC.

Before the American session 103.21 to 102.56 (-65.0 cents), range 169.0

Released during this session:

A downward forecast issued at 06:00 UTC set a target at 100.40 on a bounce leg. At the close of the window at 11:00 UTC, the forecast had not resolved, with the quote sitting 216.0 cents above the target level.

Earlier in the morning, the EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index printed at 25.8 against a forecast of 39.9, alongside the EU Balance of Trade reading of 14.2B.

Ahead in the US session, the weekly ADP Employment Change is scheduled for 12:15 UTC, followed by the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 12:30 UTC, which carries a forecast of 14.75.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 101.83 to 103.22 (+139.0 cents), range 167.0

WTI crude oil (WTI) hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-15

Resolved here: the forecast issued 14 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 103.25, at 04:00 UTC.

A downward pull-back forecast resolved during the session as its target was reached.

At the close of the window, an earlier downward forecast from 11 September was still standing, with price sitting 524.0 cents from its bounce target.

Ahead in the European morning, the EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is scheduled for release at 09:00 UTC alongside the EU Balance of Trade.

Due in the next session:

14 September the day: 102.06 to 101.83 (-23.0 cents), range 442.0

At the close 102.48 to 101.83 (-65.0 cents), range 442.0

Resolved here: the forecast issued 14 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 101.27, at 16:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

An upward pull-back forecast issued earlier in the day resolved during the session as price touched its target. At 20:00 UTC, an earlier down-trend forecast from 11 September was still standing, with the close finishing 385.0 cents from its bounce target.

An ECB speech by President Lagarde was scheduled during the window at 15:15 UTC.

Before the American session 102.66 to 102.50 (-16.0 cents), range 189.0

WTI crude oil (WTI) hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-14

A live forecast was issued at 06:00 UTC, pointing up with a pull-back target at 101.27. By 11:00 UTC, the forecast had not resolved, with the close sitting 123.0 cents away from the target level.

ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak later at 15:15 UTC.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 102.06 to 102.65 (+59.0 cents), range 199.0

At the close of the window, a downward forecast issued on 11 September had not resolved, aiming for a target of 97.98 on a bounce leg into the 97.07 to 97.98 zone. At 05:00 UTC, the market was sitting 467.0 cents above the target, governed by the S5 stop.

What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 97.98 on 18 September at 14:00 UTC.

How the week ended

How the week ended

Forecasts that ended this week5
Reached the level they named4
Ended without reaching it1
Issued this week5
Still standing on Sunday1
Week open to close102.06 to 95.44 (-662.0 cents)
Week range94.81 to 106.70 (1189.0 cents)

The week

During the week of 14 to 20 September 2026, 5 forecasts for WTI ended. Of those, 4 reached their target band, while 1 ended without reaching its target. Across the week, 5 forecasts were issued in total, and 1 stayed open at the end of Sunday.

WTI opened the week at 102.06, moved between a high of 106.70 and a low of 94.81, and closed at 95.44. The weekly range was 1189.0 cents, with a total change of -662.0 cents. A forecast issued on 17 September 2026 set a downward trend targeting 103.42, with the lower edge of the zone at 105.57 and the upper edge at 106.42.

Scheduled economic events during the week included the US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 4%, US Retail Sales MoM at 1.2%, and US Initial Jobless Claims at 196K.

Every forecast that ended this week

IssuedDirectionCorridorContinuationInvalidationReachedEnded
2026-09-11 21:00down97.07 - 97.9897.98bounce2026-09-18 14:00
2026-09-15 06:00down99.45 - 100.40100.40bounce2026-09-17 06:00
2026-09-15 21:00up102.88 - 103.90106.44bounce2026-09-16 15:00
2026-09-14 21:00down103.25 - 104.35103.25pull-back2026-09-15 04:00
2026-09-14 06:00up100.32 - 101.27101.27pull-back2026-09-14 16:00

On the calendar this week

Back to the WTI forecast · ← week 37