XAU/USD forecast review, 7 to 13 September 2026

11 September the day: 4318.2 to 4347.5 (+29.3 dollars), range 110.3

At the close 4337.3 to 4348.4 (+11.1 dollars), range 110.3

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate YoY — 2.4% against a forecast of 2.4% (in line with forecast), previous 2.5%
• 12:30 UTC US CPI — 334.98 against a forecast of 334.85 (above forecast), previous 333.92
• 12:30 UTC US CPI s.a — 334.131, previous 332.81
• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate YoY — 3.4% against a forecast of 3.4% (in line with forecast), previous 3.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — 47.8 against a forecast of 51 (below forecast), previous 51.7
• 14:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
• 18:00 UTC US Monthly Budget Statement — -167B against a forecast of -404B (above forecast), previous -432B

Earlier in the day at 06:00 UTC, a downward pull-back forecast issued the previous evening reached its target of 4355.0 dollars. A fresh downward bounce forecast issued at the same hour called for a move to 4283.0 dollars; at the close, it had not resolved and price stood 63.8 dollars above the target.

US economic releases arrived during the window, led by inflation metrics at 12:30 UTC. Core Inflation Rate MoM printed at 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast, while Core Inflation Rate YoY landed at 2.4%, matching expectations. The headline Inflation Rate MoM was 0.4% and the YoY rate was 3.4%, both inline with forecasts. At 14:00 UTC, preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in at 47.8 against an expected 51.

What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 4283.0 on 14 September at 09:00 UTC.

Before the American session 4332.0 to 4337.3 (+5.3 dollars), range 32.9

Resolved here: the forecast issued 10 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 4355.0, at 06:00 UTC.

A pull-back forecast reached its target early in the session. Following that resolution, a fresh downward forecast was issued targeting 4283.0 on a bounce leg, sitting 54.3 dollars away at the close.

Major US inflation data is scheduled ahead at 12:30 UTC, with Core Inflation Rate YoY expected at 2.4%, Inflation Rate YoY at 3.4%, MoM Inflation Rate at 0.4%, and Core MoM Inflation Rate at 0.2%. Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due later at 14:00 UTC with a forecast of 51, alongside a scheduled speech from ECB President Lagarde.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 2.4%, previous 2.5%
• 12:30 UTC US CPI — forecast 334.85, previous 333.92
• 12:30 UTC US CPI s.a
• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.2%, previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 3.4%, previous 3.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — forecast 51, previous 51.7
• 14:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

Before the European session 4324.3 to 4331.6 (+7.3 dollars), range 39.8

A pull-back forecast issued at 21:00 UTC was live at the close of the window, targeting 4355.0 dollars within a broader downtrend governed by S3. At 05:00 UTC, price remained 23.4 dollars short of that target, which marks the near edge of a zone running up to 4374.1 dollars.

Trading across the session spanned a range of 39.8 dollars between a low of 4300.5 dollars and a high of 4340.3 dollars.

10 September the day: 4402.4 to 4316.9 (-85.5 dollars), range 120.7

At the close 4378.8 to 4332.8 (-46.0 dollars), range 66.7

Released during this session:

• 12:15 UTC EU Deposit Facility Rate — 2.5% against a forecast of 2.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.25%
• 12:15 UTC EU ECB Interest Rate Decision — 2.65% against a forecast of 2.65% (in line with forecast), previous 2.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 206K against a forecast of 205K (above forecast), previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Core PPI MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US PPI MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
• 12:45 UTC EU ECB Press Conference
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales — 3.98M against a forecast of 3.98M (in line with forecast), previous 4.06M
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales MoM — -2%, previous -1.7%
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 1.269M against a forecast of -1.4M (above forecast), previous -1.173M
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -0.391M against a forecast of -1.6M (above forecast), previous -4.45M

Earlier in the day, two forecasts reached their 4435.5 target at 06:00 UTC: a reversal leg issued at 06:00 UTC on 9 September and a continuation leg issued at 21:00 UTC on 9 September.

During the session, several major calendar items matched their expectations. The ECB set its Interest Rate Decision at 2.65% and its Deposit Facility Rate at 2.5%, while US PPI MoM arrived at 0.4% and Existing Home Sales printed at 3.98M. The ECB Press Conference was also scheduled, for which no reading is available.

At the close, a forecast issued at 21:00 UTC on 8 September targeting 4444.0 on a reversal leg remained unreached, sitting 119.7 dollars away from its target.

Before the American session 4408.2 to 4378.7 (-29.5 dollars), range 59.9

Resolved here: the forecast issued 9 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 4435.5, at 06:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 9 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 4435.5, at 06:00 UTC.

Two down-trend forecasts resolved at 06:00 UTC, both reaching their target level. The first, issued on 9 September at 06:00 UTC, completed as a reversal leg, while the second, issued later that day at 21:00 UTC, resolved as a continuation leg.

At the close of the window, an earlier reversal forecast issued on 8 September at 21:00 UTC remained live, with the price sitting 65.3 dollars away from its target.

Looking ahead to the American session, several major calendar releases are scheduled. The European Central Bank releases its Interest Rate Decision at 12:15 UTC, with a forecast of 2.65%, alongside the Deposit Facility Rate expected at 2.5%, followed by the ECB Press Conference at 12:45 UTC. In the United States, monthly PPI is scheduled for 12:30 UTC with a forecast of 0.4%, and Existing Home Sales figures are due at 14:00 UTC with an expected reading of 3.98M.

Due in the next session:

• 12:15 UTC EU Deposit Facility Rate — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.25%
• 12:15 UTC EU ECB Interest Rate Decision — forecast 2.65%, previous 2.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 205K, previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Core PPI MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US PPI MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%
• 12:45 UTC EU ECB Press Conference
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales — forecast 3.98M, previous 4.06M
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales MoM
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -1.4M, previous -1.173M
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast -1.6M, previous -4.45M

Before the European session 4399.0 to 4408.2 (+9.2 dollars), range 31.5

Released during this session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -0.3M against a forecast of -1.3M (above forecast), previous -2.6M

At the close of the window at 05:00 UTC, a downward continuation forecast issued at 21:00 UTC targeting 4435.5 was still standing, with price 27.3 dollars from the target.

During the session, the US API Crude Oil Stock Change was reported at -0.3M against an expected -1.3M.

9 September the day: 4356.9 to 4400.8 (+43.9 dollars), range 92.8

At the close 4399.2 to 4399.0 (-0.2 dollars), range 59.3

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.85%, previous 6.79%
• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 12K, previous 10K
• 17:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

At the close, the downward reversal forecast issued at 06:00 UTC had not resolved, with price finishing 36.5 dollars short of its target at 4435.5.

US weekly ADP Employment Change was reported at 12K alongside an MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate reading of 6.85%, while ECB President Lagarde was scheduled to speak. Ahead, US API Crude Oil Stock Change is expected at -1.3M.

Due in the next session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast -1.3M, previous -2.6M

Before the American session 4381.2 to 4399.2 (+18.0 dollars), range 32.5

A reversal forecast issued at 06:00 UTC pointed to a target of 4435.5. At the close of the window, the call remained standing, with price finishing 36.3 dollars short of the target level.

Looking ahead to the American session, the US economic calendar includes the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate and the ADP Employment Change Weekly releases.

Due in the next session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly

Before the European session 4359.1 to 4381.1 (+22.0 dollars), range 43.3

Resolved here: the forecast issued 2 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 4351.4, at 20:00 UTC.

A pull-back target from a 2 September forecast was reached at the start of the window.

A new reversal call was subsequently issued with a downward trend towards a target at 4444.0 dollars. At the close of the window, price sat 62.9 dollars from that level.

8 September the day: 4407.3 to 4355.5 (-51.8 dollars), range 97.7

At the close 4395.1 to 4359.1 (-36.0 dollars), range 56.6

Resolved here: the forecast issued 4 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 4371.2, at 18:00 UTC.

A bounce leg forecast issued on 4 September resolved during the session as price reached its target.

At the close, a pull-back forecast issued on 2 September in a broader uptrend had not resolved, sitting 7.7 dollars short of its target.

Before the American session 4435.6 to 4395.0 (-40.6 dollars), range 49.8

The session dropped 40.6 dollars, expanding the high-to-low span to 49.8 dollars across the six hours leading up to 11:00 UTC.

A downward forecast issued on 4 September remained active as the window closed. The call projects a bounce leg into the 4351.0 to 4371.2 zone, targeting its near edge at 4371.2. At 11:00 UTC, price sat 23.8 dollars above that level.

Looking ahead to the US session, the weekly ADP Employment Change figure is scheduled for release at 12:15 UTC.

7 September the day: 4425.9 to 4404.6 (-21.3 dollars), range 54.0

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.