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XAU/USD forecast review, 14 to 20 September 2026

The last forecast of the week

Gold hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-17

Issued 2026-09-17 13:00 UTC, upward, from a zone between 4243.4 and 4265.0. The next level is 4319.0.

It had not resolved as of 2026-09-21 04:00 UTC: price had not reached its level.

Readings on this market have taken a median of 30 hours to reach the level they named, over the 88 that have.

Session by session

18 September the day: 4341.9 to 4376.6 (+34.7 dollars), range 65.3

At the close 4381.5 to 4376.4 (-5.1 dollars), range 54.6

Gold hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-18

Released during this session:

At the close, the upward bounce forecast issued on 17 September was still standing, with price finishing 62.9 dollars above its target at 4319.0 dollars.

In macroeconomic news, US Industrial Production MoM showed 0% growth against a forecasted 0.3%, while speeches by Fed officials Bowman and Schmid were also scheduled during the session.

Before the American session 4366.6 to 4381.3 (+14.7 dollars), range 39.7

Released during this session:

Ahead of the American session, US Industrial Production is scheduled at 13:15 UTC with an expected reading of 0.3%, followed by a speech from Fed Governor Bowman at 13:30 UTC. Earlier in the window, ECB President Lagarde was scheduled to speak at 10:30 UTC.

At 11:00 UTC, the upward bounce forecast issued on 17 September remained standing, with the price sitting 62.3 dollars from its 4319.0 target.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 4346.0 to 4366.5 (+20.5 dollars), range 32.6

An up-trend forecast issued at 13:00 UTC on 17 September was still standing at the end of the window, with price traded at 4366.5, past the 4319.0 target.

Ahead in the European session, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 10:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

17 September the day: 4262.4 to 4341.1 (+78.7 dollars), range 123.7

At the close 4323.9 to 4345.7 (+21.8 dollars), range 57.9

Resolved here: the forecast issued 14 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 4368.9, at 12:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

At 12:00 UTC, a pull-back forecast issued on 14 September reached its target, while a bounce call from 16 September was withdrawn. A new bounce forecast with an upward target of 4319.0 was issued at 13:00 UTC and remained standing at the close, sitting 26.7 points from its target.

During the session, major US data landed at 12:30 UTC as Housing Starts came in at 1.275M against a 1.31M forecast, and Preliminary Building Permits printed at 1.394M compared to an expected 1.41M. US Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 196K against a 208K forecast, alongside the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at 37.8 against an expected 30.5.

Before the American session 4297.1 to 4323.9 (+26.8 dollars), range 50.1

Gold hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-17

Major US economic data is scheduled shortly after the window, with Housing Starts (expected at 1.31M) and preliminary Building Permits (expected at 1.41M) due at 12:30 UTC.

At the end of the session, a downward bounce forecast issued on 16 September remained active. The call sets a target of 4289.0 dollars, with price finishing the window 34.9 dollars away from that level.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 4272.0 to 4297.2 (+25.2 dollars), range 61.4

Released during this session:

US Net Long-term TIC Flows landed at -27.9B against an expected 146.3B at the start of the window.

A downward STC bounce forecast issued at 19:00 UTC on 16 September had not resolved by the end of the session, with the price sitting 8.2 dollars from its 4289.0 target at 05:00 UTC.

16 September the day: 4289.6 to 4262.9 (-26.7 dollars), range 131.8

At the close 4350.9 to 4271.9 (-79.0 dollars), range 131.8

Resolved here: the forecast issued 14 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 4248.7, at 19:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

The 2026-09-14 21:00 UTC down-trend forecast resolved as its target was reached at 19:00 UTC during a bounce leg. Earlier in the session, an up-trend forecast issued at 15:00 UTC was withdrawn at 18:00 UTC. At the close, a new down-trend forecast issued at 19:00 UTC was standing with a target of 4289.0 dollars, sitting 17.1 dollars away.

Earlier in the day, a down-trend forecast from 2026-09-14 12:00 UTC reached its target at 03:00 UTC on a pull-back leg.

In economic data, US Retail Sales MoM landed at 1.2% against a 0.8% forecast, while US Industrial Production MoM earlier in the day showed -0.1% against a -0.2% forecast. The Fed Interest Rate Decision held rates at 4%, matching expectations, accompanied by the scheduled FOMC Economic Projections and Fed Press Conference.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 4321.5 to 4350.8 (+29.3 dollars), range 30.4

Gold hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-16

Released during this session:

Major US Retail Sales MoM is scheduled for 12:30 UTC before the American session, with expectations set at 0.8%.

In the European session, EU Industrial Production MoM reported a reading of -0.1% against a forecast of -0.2%.

At the close, a down trend bounce forecast issued on 14 September remained standing, with price sitting 102.1 dollars from its 4248.7 target.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 4297.7 to 4321.5 (+23.8 dollars), range 65.5

Resolved here: the forecast issued 14 September at 12:00 reached its invalidation level, 4324.8, at 03:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

A pull-back forecast reached its target during the session. At the close, a separate down-trend bounce forecast issued on 14 September remained active, sitting 72.8 dollars from its target.

Looking ahead to the European session, EU Industrial Production MoM is scheduled for release at 09:00 UTC, with an expected figure of -0.2%.

Due in the next session:

15 September the day: 4298.9 to 4289.4 (-9.5 dollars), range 56.1

At the close 4281.3 to 4297.6 (+16.3 dollars), range 39.2

Released during this session:

The downward forecast issued on 14 September targeting a bounce to 4248.7 dollars had not resolved by the close, with price ending the session 48.9 dollars above the target.

During the window, the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index printed at 7.6 against a forecast of 14.75, while weekly ADP Employment Change came in at 16.25K. Earlier in the day, the European ZEW Economic Sentiment Index was published at 25.8, under the 39.9 expectation, alongside the European trade balance at 14.2B.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 4304.6 to 4281.3 (-23.3 dollars), range 46.3

Released during this session:

A down-trend forecast issued on 14 September seeking a bounce to 4248.7 dollars remained unresolved at the end of the window. At 11:00 UTC, price finished 32.6 dollars clear of the target.

Looking ahead to the US session, the ADP Employment Change Weekly figure is due at 12:15 UTC, followed by the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 12:30 UTC, where a reading of 14.75 is expected.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 4283.5 to 4304.6 (+21.1 dollars), range 35.1

At the close of the window, a downwards bounce forecast issued at 21:00 UTC was standing with a target at 4248.7 dollars, leaving price 55.9 dollars away from the level.

Scheduled for the upcoming European session are the EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index at 09:00 UTC, expected at 39.9, alongside the EU Balance of Trade release at the same time.

Due in the next session:

14 September the day: 4333.3 to 4298.6 (-34.7 dollars), range 101.9

At the close 4294.4 to 4283.4 (-11.0 dollars), range 64.3

Gold hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-14

Released during this session:

Earlier in the day, a downward forecast issued on 11 September reached its bounce target at 09:00 UTC. Later in the session, ECB President Lagarde was scheduled to speak at 15:15 UTC.

A new downward forecast was issued at 12:00 UTC, targeting 4324.8 on a pull-back leg. At the close, it had not resolved, with price standing 41.4 dollars short of the target level.

Before the American session 4329.3 to 4294.5 (-34.8 dollars), range 60.4

Gold hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-14

Resolved here: the forecast issued 11 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 4283.0, at 09:00 UTC.

A downward trend forecast issued on 11 September reached its target on a bounce leg during the session. Meanwhile, a fresh downward trend call was issued at 06:00 UTC pointing to a target of 4368.9 dollars on a pull-back leg. At 11:00 UTC, the market stood 74.4 dollars away from that level.

Looking ahead to the US session, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 15:15 UTC.

Due in the next session:

How the week ended

How the week ended

Forecasts that ended this week7
Reached the level they named4
Ended without reaching it3
Issued this week7
Still standing on Sunday1
Week open to close4333.3 to 4376.6 (+43.3 dollars)
Week range4234.7 to 4399.4 (164.7 dollars)

The week

For XAU/USD, 7 forecasts ended during the week of 14 to 20 September 2026. Of these, 4 reached their target band, while 3 ended without reaching their target.

Over the course of the week, XAU/USD opened at 4333.3 and closed at 4376.6, showing a change of 43.3 dollars. Price moved within a range of 164.7 dollars between a low of 4234.7 and a high of 4399.4.

A forecast issued on 2026-09-17T13:00:00+00:00 pointed to an up trend with a target of 4319.0 and a zone between 4243.4 and 4265.0. Macroeconomic developments during the week included the US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 4%, alongside major economic releases such as US Retail Sales MoM, Housing Starts, and Building Permits Prel.

Every forecast that ended this week

IssuedDirectionCorridorContinuationInvalidationReachedEnded
2026-09-14 06:00down4368.9 - 4388.74368.9pull-back2026-09-17 12:00
2026-09-16 19:00down4360.9 - 4371.54310.8bounce2026-09-17 12:00
2026-09-14 21:00down4228.0 - 4248.74248.7bounce2026-09-16 19:00
2026-09-16 15:00up4295.4 - 4312.44354.8bounce2026-09-16 18:00
2026-09-15 21:00down4384.4 - 4404.34334.9bounce2026-09-16 14:00
2026-09-14 12:00down4324.8 - 4344.64324.8pull-back2026-09-16 03:00
2026-09-11 06:00down4263.5 - 4283.04283.0bounce2026-09-14 09:00

On the calendar this week

Back to the XAU/USD forecast · ← week 37