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XAU/USD forecast review, 21 to 27 September 2026

The last forecast of the week

Gold hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-24

Issued 2026-09-24 21:00 UTC, downward, from a zone between 4294.4 and 4311.0. The next level is 4251.7.

It reached its level, 4251.7, at 2026-09-28 00:00 UTC — after this week had closed.

Readings on this market have taken a median of 30 hours to reach the level they named, over the 83 that have.

Session by session

25 September the day: 4265.4 to 4282.8 (+17.4 dollars), range 61.1

At the close 4310.8 to 4291.0 (-19.8 dollars), range 61.1

Gold hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-25

Released during this session:

US Durable Goods Orders MoM landed at 12:30 UTC at 0%, above the forecasted -0.4%. Later in the session, the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading was published at 48.1 against an expected 47.6. Speeches by Fed officials Williams, Schmid, and Hammack were also scheduled across the day.

At the close, a downward forecast targeting 4251.7 on a bounce leg remained unresolved. Price finished the session 42.8 dollars away from the target level.

What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 4251.7 on 28 September at 00:00 UTC.

Before the American session 4262.3 to 4310.7 (+48.4 dollars), range 55.5

Released during this session:

Major US economic data is scheduled ahead, led by US Durable Goods Orders MoM at 12:30 UTC with a forecast of -0.4%.

During the session, Fed Williams spoke with no reading recorded on the calendar. At the close of the window, a downward forecast targeting 4251.7 on a bounce leg was still standing, with the market sitting 59.0 dollars from the target.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 4273.8 to 4262.7 (-11.1 dollars), range 33.1

Released during this session:

A downward bounce forecast was issued at 21:00 UTC targeting 4251.7. At the close of the window, the call was still standing, with the market sitting 11.0 dollars from the target level.

Ahead in the session, a speech by Fed's Williams is scheduled for 09:15 UTC.

Due in the next session:

24 September the day: 4288.1 to 4274.5 (-13.6 dollars), range 59.0

At the close 4257.8 to 4271.5 (+13.7 dollars), range 43.8

Gold hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-24

Released during this session:

At the close, a down-trend bounce forecast issued on 23 September was still standing, with price finishing 9.8 dollars from its 4283.5 target.

Earlier in the day, a summit between President Trump and President Xi was scheduled on the calendar. During the session, US initial jobless claims came in at 197K against a forecast of 201K, while new home sales reached 0.684M against the 0.62M expected.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 4289.2 to 4257.9 (-31.3 dollars), range 52.2

Released during this session:

At the close of the window, a downward forecast issued on 23 September for a bounce leg was still standing with a target of 4283.5 dollars, with price sitting 25.6 dollars away. Fed official Williams spoke during the session, though no data print accompanied the event.

Looking ahead to the American session, US Initial Jobless Claims are scheduled for 12:30 UTC with an expected 201K reading alongside the Current Account balance forecast at -255B. New Home Sales follow at 14:00 UTC with an expected 0.62M figure, alongside scheduled speeches from Fed officials Barkin, Hammack, and Paulson.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 4283.9 to 4289.2 (+5.3 dollars), range 29.8

Released during this session:

A down forecast issued on 23 September remained standing at the close of the window, with price sitting 5.7 dollars from its 4283.5 target on a bounce leg.

During the session, a summit between President Trump and President Xi took place at 00:00 UTC, for which no economic reading is published. Looking ahead, a speech by Fed official Williams is scheduled for 08:10 UTC.

Due in the next session:

23 September the day: 4355.5 to 4287.3 (-68.2 dollars), range 95.0

At the close 4315.1 to 4283.8 (-31.3 dollars), range 44.7

Released during this session:

An upward bounce forecast issued on 17 September dropped at 13:00 UTC, while three upward bounce calls from 22 September were withdrawn at the same hour. A fresh downward bounce forecast was issued at 14:00 UTC targeting 4283.5, and at the close price sat 0.3 dollars from that target.

US flash PMIs showed Services at 58.7 against a 56 forecast and Manufacturing at 57 against a 53.6 forecast. Fed Governor Barr was also scheduled to speak during the session. Ahead at 00:00 UTC, a summit between President Trump and President Xi is scheduled on the calendar.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 4343.6 to 4315.0 (-28.6 dollars), range 37.6

Gold hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-23

Released during this session:

An upward bounce forecast issued at 20:00 UTC on 22 September, targeting 4363.7 from the zone between 4300.8 and 4318.8, remained standing at 11:00 UTC, with the quote sitting 48.7 dollars from the target.

During the window, Eurozone Composite PMI Flash landed at 53.1 against a 51.7 forecast, while Services PMI Flash came in at 53 compared to the expected 51.5 and Manufacturing PMI Flash printed at 52.7 against a 52.6 forecast.

Ahead in the US session, US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash is scheduled for 13:45 UTC with a forecast of 53.6, alongside Services PMI Flash expected at 56. Fed Governor Barr is also scheduled to speak at 14:05 UTC.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 4363.8 to 4343.8 (-20.0 dollars), range 36.2

Released during this session:

An STC bounce call issued at 20:00 UTC with an upward trend had not resolved by the close, sitting 19.9 points from its 4363.7 target.

Overnight calendar items included the US API Crude Oil Stock Change, which reported a 1.786M build against a forecasted drawdown of -0.5M. The UN General Assembly was also scheduled, for which no reading is available.

Ahead in the upcoming session, flash Eurozone S&P Global PMI releases are due at 08:00 UTC, with Manufacturing expected at 52.6, Services at 51.5, and the Composite index at 51.7.

Due in the next session:

22 September the day: 4343.1 to 4356.6 (+13.5 dollars), range 84.5

At the close 4321.6 to 4363.7 (+42.1 dollars), range 62.3

Gold hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-22

Released during this session:

A new forecast for an upward bounce was issued at 19:00 UTC with a target at 4353.0. At the close of the session, the call was still standing, with price sitting 10.7 dollars from the target level.

Economic data during the window included the US weekly ADP employment change, which printed at 20K against a previous 16.25K. Eurozone flash consumer confidence came in at -16.5 against a forecast of -16. Speeches were also scheduled from Fed officials Williams, Jefferson, and Barkin, alongside the ECB's Nagel.

In the session ahead, US API crude oil stock change figures are scheduled with a forecast of -0.5M.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 4342.5 to 4321.5 (-21.0 dollars), range 55.9

Gold hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-22

At the close of the session, the standing upward forecast issued on 17 September sat 2.5 dollars from its 4319.0 target on a bounce leg.

Ahead in the American session, US weekly ADP employment figures are scheduled at 12:15 UTC, alongside European flash consumer confidence data and scheduled speeches from Fed officials Williams and Jefferson.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 4344.7 to 4342.7 (-2.0 dollars), range 41.2

Released during this session:

The overnight session spanned a range of 41.2 dollars across eight hours. The UN General Assembly opened in New York during the window, carrying no economic reading.

An upward bounce forecast issued on 17 September remained standing at 05:00 UTC. At the end of the window, the close at 4342.7 dollars sat 23.7 dollars above its 4319.0 target level.

21 September the day: 4374.5 to 4342.6 (-31.9 dollars), range 60.9

At the close 4342.3 to 4344.7 (+2.4 dollars), range 52.3

Released during this session:

The US Chicago Fed National Activity Index landed at -0.04 during the session, following a previous reading of 0.08. Earlier in the day, Fed official Goolsbee spoke, while the UN General Assembly was also on the schedule.

At the close, the bounce forecast issued on 17 September had not resolved, with price finishing 25.7 dollars from its 4319.0 target.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 4355.6 to 4342.3 (-13.3 dollars), range 22.1

Released during this session:

At the close of the session, an upward bounce forecast issued on 17 September remained active, with the close sitting 23.3 dollars from its 4319.0 target. No forecast reached its target or was withdrawn during the window.

Fed Barkin and Goolsbee were scheduled on the calendar during the morning, with Fed Goolsbee speaking at 10:30 UTC. Ahead in the US session, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index is scheduled for 12:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 4374.5 to 4355.5 (-19.0 dollars), range 28.4

Released during this session:

An upward bounce forecast issued on 17 September was still standing at the close, with price positioned 36.5 dollars above its 4319.0 target.

Later in the day, a speech by Fed's Goolsbee is scheduled for 10:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

How the week ended

How the week ended

Forecasts that ended this week4
Reached the level they named0
Ended without reaching it4
Issued this week5
Still standing on Sunday2
Week open to close4374.5 to 4282.8 (-91.7 dollars)
Week range4243.9 to 4383.2 (139.3 dollars)

The week

During the week of 21 to 27 September 2026, 4 forecasts for XAU/USD ended, with 0 reaching their target band. In total, 5 forecasts were issued throughout the week, leaving 2 still open on Sunday.

XAU/USD opened at 4374.5 and closed at 4282.8, marking a change of -91.7 dollars. The price moved between a high of 4383.2 and a low of 4243.9, covering a total range of 139.3 dollars.

A forecast issued on 24 September projected a downward trend with a target of 4251.7, setting the upper edge of the zone at 4311.0 and the lower edge at 4294.4. Scheduled events during the week included the US Initial Jobless Claims release on 24 September at 197K and US Durable Goods Orders MoM on 25 September at 0%.

Every forecast that ended this week

IssuedDirectionCorridorContinuationInvalidationReachedEnded
2026-09-17 13:00up4243.4 - 4265.04319.0bounce2026-09-23 13:00
2026-09-22 18:00up4286.9 - 4305.14350.4bounce2026-09-23 13:00
2026-09-22 19:00up4290.1 - 4308.14353.0bounce2026-09-23 13:00
2026-09-22 20:00up4300.8 - 4318.84363.7bounce2026-09-23 13:00

On the calendar this week

Back to the XAU/USD forecast · ← week 38